S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ASUNCION 000405

SIPDIS

NOFORN

FOR DS/IP/ITA, DS/IP/WHA, POSTS FOR RSO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2030
TAGS: PTER ASEC
SUBJECT: ASUNCION - SETL RESPONSE

REF: STATE 23078

Classified By: TED R. CARPENTER, RSO: REASON 1.4 (C)(D)(G)

--------------
POLITICAL VIOLENCE
--------------


1. (U) DEMONSTRATIONS


A: (SBU) Are there any ethnic or religious communities in
country capable of carrying out significant anti-American
demonstrations? Yes. Ethnic groups with foreign influences,
i.e. Lebanese Hizbollah, Palestinian radical groups. That
said, there has not been a history of protests by these
groups.


B. (SBU) Have there been any anti-American demonstrations in
the country within the last 12 months? Yes. On August 13,
at approximately 1915 hours, a group of approximately 50
demonstrators approached the Embassy to protest U.S. policy
in Venezuela. The protesters consisted mainly of leftist
university students and members of a campesino organization
(MCNOC). The leader of the group was an individual named LUIS
((AGUAYO)). The protesters stated that they would hold the
USG responsible for any attack or incident against President
Hugo Chavez during the "referendum" to be held August 15 in
Venezuela. They also shouted that the Ambassador should
leave Paraguay.


C. (SBU) Have demonstrations taken place near or in front of
U.S. diplomatic facilities?
Yes. See above.


D. (SBU) What is the average size of an anti-American
demonstrations? 50.


E. (SBU) Are demonstrations usually triggered by U.S.
foreign policy initiatives, military actions, or by domestic
issues? U.S. foreign policy initiatives.


F. (SBU) Are demonstrations generally violent or peaceful?
Peaceful.


G. (SBU) If violent, have any demonstrations resulted in
damage to USG property or injuries to USG employees? No.


H. (SBU) If violent, have any demonstrators ever penetrated
our perimeter security line?
No.


I. (SBU) Have there been any anti-government demonstrations
in the country within the last 12 months? Yes. Demonstrations
are common in Paraguay. In March 2004, the Cooperatives'
Union and the mechanized farmers, led by the Agricultural
Coordination of Paraguay (CAP), led 5,000 protesters and a

fleet of more than 500 vehicles on a march through downtown
Asuncion to denounce the GOP's proposed tax hikes. On June
4, over 15,000 students marched through downtown Asuncion to
the Congressional building to call for new measures to combat
violence against young Paraguayans. The march was a response
to two specific incidents, the first was a murder of an
18-year old high school student, targeted by two muggers for
his cell phone, and the other was an 11-year old girl in a
small town outside Asuncion who was raped and murdered by a
man in his early twenties. In August 2004, several weeks of
protests were carried out by campesino groups protesting the
GOP's land policy. They blocked roads, occupied properties,
and marched on Government ministries and the Congress.


J. (SBU) Have demonstrations taken place near or in front of
U.S. diplomatic facilities? Yes, within a mile of the U.S.
Embassy.


K. (SBU) What is the average size of an anti-government
demonstration? Up to several thousand participants.


L. (SBU) Are these demonstrations generally violent or
peaceful? Peaceful but with potential for violence. Violent
confrontations are usually limited to protesters clashing
with police.

M. (SBU) If violent, have any demonstrations resulted in
damage to USG property? No.


2. (U) MACRO CONFLICT CONDITIONS


A. (SBU) Is the host country engaged in an interstate or
intrastate conflict? (This may include battles between
organized and violent drug cartels). Drug
cartels/organizations have engaged in violent conflict in
Paraguay. Additionally, there are active campesino movements
tied to the landless movement (MST) in Brazil which conduct
regular land invasions.


B. (SBU) If an intrastate conflict, is it an insurgency that
is limited to a specific region or a country wide civil war?
Drug trafficking violence is predominantly limited to regions
bordering Brazil and Argentina.


C. (SBU) If limited to a specific region, are any U.S.
diplomatic facilities located in this region? No.


D. (SBU) Have any of the factions involved in these
intrastate conflicts signaled or demonstrated an
anti-American orientation? No.


3. (U) HOST COUNTRY CAPABILITIES


A. (SBU) Are law enforcement agencies professional and well
trained? In general, the National Police are poorly trained,
badly equipped and lack professionalism.


B. (SBU) Have they been trained by U.S. agencies? Some
specialized units have been trained by U.S. agencies. DS/ATA
courses have been provided in Crisis Management, VIP
Protection, etc.


C. (SBU) Are law enforcement agencies confronted with
serious widespread corruption inside their agencies? Yes.


D. (SBU) Are the intelligence services professional and
capable of deterring terrorist actions? Paraguay does not
have national level intelligence service. Post receives
excellent cooperation form the anti-terrorist unit of the
Paraguayan National Police.


E. (SBU) Have the intelligence services been cooperative
with U.S. Embassy request for information and support? Yes.
It has convicted and sentenced three individualsThe
Paraguayan government has been very responsive to drug and
counterterrorism efforts.


F. (SBU) Have host country security services scored any
major anti-terrorism successes? Yes. It has convicted and
sentenced three individuals implicated in terrorism financing
to prison on charges of tax evasion.


G. (SBU) Has host country been responsive (re: timeliness
and allocation of resources) to Embassy requests for
protective security? Yes.


H. (SBU) How does the Embassy assess the overall security at
major airports in the country (Excellent, very good,
good/average, poor)? Poor.


I. (SBU) How effective are customs and immigration control
agencies? Ineffective.


J. (SBU) How effective are border patrol forces? Ineffective.

--------------
INDIGENOUS TERRORISM
--------------


4. (U) ANTI-AMERICAN TERRORIST GROUPS


A. (SBU) Are there indigenous anti-American terrorist groups
in country? No

B - H. (U) Not applicable.


5. (U) OTHER INDIGENOUS TERRORIST GROUPS


A. (SBU) Are there other indigenous terrorist groups (not
anti-American) in country? No.

B-E. (U) Not applicable.
--------------
TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM
--------------


6. (U) TRANSNATIONAL TERRORIST INDICATORS


A. (S/NF) Are there any foreign terrorist groups that have a
presence in country? Yes. Lebanese Hizballah, Hamas, AMAL,
Al-Gama'at and the FARC.

B. (S/NF) How does the EAC asses this presence? Is it an
operation cell? Financial cell? Support Cell? Propaganda
cell? In the case of Islamic Radical Groups, the EAC
assesses the presence as financial support and propaganda
cells. FARC connection to a high profile kidnapping in
Paraguay was only recently uncovered. It appears at the very
least the FARC provided trainging to Paraguayan leftist party
(Patria Libre) that carried out the kidnapping.


C. (S/NF) Is the host country sympathetic to these groups?
No.


D. (S/NF) Are there suspect non-governmental organizations
(NGOs) in the country that have a relationship with any of
these groups? It is not clear the relationship that the FARC
may have to campesino groups such as FNC or MCNOC, and to
what extent the FARC has assumed a role in recent peasant
demonstrations and land invasions.


E. (S/NF) Are there any ethnic or religious communities in
country that are sympathetic to these groups? Yes.


F. (S/NF) How does the EAC assess the level, intent, and
scope of hostile intelligence services in country relative to
potential anti-American terrorist acts? Low. Iran has
diplomatic presence in Brasilia with officials making
occasional trips to the tri-border region.


G. (S/NF) How does the EAC assess the availability of
weapons and explosives in country or from nearby countries
for hostile terrorist elements? Readily available.




KEANE