PARAGUAY: NO GET OUT OF JAIL FREE CARD FOR LINO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASUNCION 001173

SIPDIS

STATE PASS TO USAID LAC/AA
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD DAN JOHNSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KJUS PINR PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: NO GET OUT OF JAIL FREE CARD FOR LINO
OVIDEO


Classified By: PolOff Mark A. Stamilio, reason 1.4(d).


1. (C) Summary: In late August, rumors circulated that
imprisoned former general Lino Oviedo's Union of Ethical
Citizens (UNACE) party was attempting to negotiate his early
release from prison as part of a political deal. Although
the presidents of UNACE and the ruling Colorado (ANR) party
denied that their parties were discussing any such deal, it
is likely that there was some truth to the rumors. It is
unlikely, however, that the ANR, unprompted by some pressing
overreaching strategic objective, would test fate by
facilitating Oviedo's release if this implied he could pursue
political office, as part of the opposition. End Summary.


2. (U) In late August, rumors circulated that UNACE was
attempting to negotiate Oviedo's early release from prison as
part of a political deal. Various versions of the story
emerged in the press. Most held that, in exchange for
Oviedo's release, UNACE offered to vote with the ANR in favor
of a constituent assembly that, among other things, would
address a proposal to amend the constitution to permit the
President to run for re-election. There was widespread
speculation that UNACE's surprising decision to vote in favor
of Ruben Candia Amarilla, the President's choice to replace
Oscar Latorre as Attorney General, also was part of the deal.
Senator Enrique Gonzalez Quintana and Herminio Caceres,
presidents of UNACE and the ANR, respectively, denied that
their parties were discussing any such deal.


3. (U) The day after the story on a possible deal in
connection with the vote on the Attorney General appeared,
Liberal (PLRA) party senator Armando Espinola proposed a bill
to grant Oviedo amnesty for his crimes, as a means of uniting
the opposition against the ANR. UNACE senator Jose Manuel
Boveda responded that Oviedo was not interested in amnesty,
since he was not willing to admit that he was guilty.
Supreme Court Justice Victor Nunez spoke up on behalf of the
judiciary, asserting that justice would not be administered
by political pacts.


4. (C) On August 30, Senator Alejandro Velazquez Ugarte
(formerly UNACE, but now ANR) told PolOffs that UNACE and the
ANR had discussed a deal that would have included Oviedo's
release on home arrest and eventual parole. According to
Velazquez, Oviedo sent Gonzalez to discuss the matter with
Caceres and two prominent ANR senators, Juan Carlos Galaverna
and Blas Riquelme. In the next breath, however, Velazquez
asserted that the ANR would never agree to Oviedo's release,
since his return to the political scene would destabilize the
country in a matter of days. He also asserted that UNACE
merely voted in favor of Candia for Attorney General because
the party "didn't have anything against him." In a September
1 meeting with PolOffs Gonzalez qualified UNACE's votes for
Candia as votes against Latorre and as a bid to win some good
will with leading ANR politicos. (Note: Latorre was the
prosecutor in one of the cases against Oviedo, earning him
strong antipathy within UNACE.)


5. (C) On September 7, businessman and former UNACE party
member Raul Doutreleau claimed to PolCouns that President
Duarte Frutos had offered to have Oviedo released from jail
and placed under house arrest, likely on the clear
understanding he couldn't run for political office. Oviedo
refused, however, insisting his conviction be overturned and
other charges pending against him dismissed. Doutreleau
dismissed prospects of Oviedo's early release, because of
Oviedo's obstinate inflexibility, and because the ANR
recognized the political threat he would pose if he were
released. In jail, he is merely a thorn in their side as his
diehard supporters campaign for his release. If he were
released and able to launch a political campaign, he could
quickly emerge as the country's leading political figure.
With him in jail, the ANR is gradually picking off his
supporters among the political elite.


6. (C) Comment: While there may be some truth to the rumors
that a deal was in the works, it is unlikely that the ANR,
unprompted by some significant overreacting political
objective, would test fate by permitting Oviedo's release if
it meant he could return to political life as an opposition
candidate. Despite his conviction and ten-year prison
sentence, Oviedo typically places second behind Duarte Frutos
in opinion polls about potential presidential candidates in

2008. He is renowned for his common touch charisma, tireless
campaigning and ability to rally support. Espinola's amnesty
proposal serves as a reminder that many members of the
opposition still support Oviedo or at least open to using him
to attack the ANR.
KEANE