TURKEY LIKELY TO GO AHEAD WITH CYPRUS EXERCISES

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 006710 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2015 TAGS: PREL MOPS TU CY SUBJECT: TURKEY LIKELY TO GO AHEAD WITH CYPRUS EXERCISES REF: A. 7 NOVEMBER 2005 SILLIMAN-BETTS E-MAIL ¶B. ANKARA 6380 (U) Classified by Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, E.O. 12958, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Turkish forces are planning to participate in "Toros" exercises on Cyprus in response to Greek Cypriot "Nikiforos" exercises in October. Although some in the Turkish MFA and TGS are counseling restraint, Cyprus hardliners are depicting failure to participate in "Toros" as another in a long string of unilateral Turkish "concessions" on Cyprus. We will continue to press on this issue. End Summary. Opposition to Exercises "Untenable" -------------- ¶2. (C) On November 10, Deputy PolCouns called on Turkish MFA Northeastern Mediterranean DDG Bilman and urged that Turkey refrain from participating in "Toros" exercises. Bilman accepted our points that Turkey could gain by showing restraint, that the Greek Cypriot exercises had hurt them politically, and that "Toros" exercises would allow Greek Cypriots to re-focus debate on Turkish "occupation" forces on Cyprus. He said he has made these same points, however, his argument against holding the exercises is "untenable." ¶3. (C) Bilman said the Turkish military has "posed several questions" to FM Gul about the exercises and the MFA would be hard pressed to advise against holding exercises. As an alternative, we suggested that only Turkish Cypriot forces hold exercises. Bilman called this "extremely unlikely," saying that 62,000 Greek Cypriot forces participated in "Nikiforos" and Turkish Cypriot forces totaled only 5000. However, Bilman added that only Turkish forces on the island will participate; none will come from Turkey. ¶4. (C) Bilman told us the exercise issue is linked to Turkish frustrations on the Cyprus issue generally, including lack of measures to ameliorate Turkish Cypriot isolation and continuing EU demands on Cyprus. "It is not a question of logic anymore," he added. Cyprus hardliners are forcefully depicting failure to participate in the exercises as another in a string of supposed unilateral Turkish concessions on Cyprus, and arguing that Turkey has received nothing for its concessions to date. Bilman predicts the decision on exercises will be made at the political level (Comment: Probably meaning PM Erdogan and FM Gul. End Comment),not military level. A Small Opening with the Military -------------- ¶5. (C) On November 14, POLMILCOUNS raised "Toros" with TGS/J5 Greece/Cyprus Director RADM Mucahit Sislioglu. He was sympathetic to our point that Turkish participation in the exercise would turn international indignation from the Greek Cypriots to the Turks, and would relinquish the moral high ground Turkey now enjoys. He said that the decision to proceed had been approved by TGS Chief GEN Ozkok. Therefore, no one in the military could reopen the issue. If, however, MFA were to recommend reconsideration, then Sislioglu believed there was a chance -- but only a chance -- that the decision for Turkish troops on the island to participate could be reversed. He confided that "TRNC President" Talat's exclusion of the Turkish commander from official celebration of the end of Ramadan holiday had angered senior officers, so they might be willing to withdraw Turkish participation in "Toros" as a means "to punish" Talat. Nonetheless, the impetus for this would need to come from MFA, he reiterated. ¶6. (C) Comment: We will continue to press the Turks on this issue, focusing on MFA. End Comment. MCELDOWNEY