TURKEY/IRAQ: ALLAWI IN ANKARA

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 006445 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ TU SUBJECT: TURKEY/IRAQ: ALLAWI IN ANKARA REF: BAGHDAD 4376 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4 (b, d). ¶1. (C) Summary. Former Iraqi PM Allawi visited Ankara the week of October 17 and met with FM Gul in the latter's capacity as acting PM. Allawi told the Turks he sought to build a broad, moderate coalition across sectarian lines with an Iraqi nationalist agenda. While impressed with Allawi, the MFA cautioned he may be maintaining a "second track" with Iran. They see Allawi as aspiring to win enough votes in the December elections to become Iraq's "kingmaker." End Summary. ¶2. (C) In separate discussions with Pol and PolMilOffs, MFA DirGen Oguz Celikkol and Middle East Department Head Avni Botsali described former Iraqi PM Allawi's recent visit to Turkey as positive. The MFA noted Allawi had not visited Turkey officially during his tenure as interim Prime Minister but had come to Turkey in earlier years. Botsali reported Allawi was accompanied by a Sh'ia cleric and his chief bodyguard was a Kurd. In PM Erdogan's absence, Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Gul received Allawi, who also met with senior Turkish Foreign Ministry officials and parliamentarians. In those meetings, the officials reported, Allawi admitted mistakes in his first election campaign which prevented him from gaining sufficient leverage to act as an effective moderating force. Allawi claimed he wants to recover the political center and get away from sectarian policies in favor of Iraqi national policy. To this end, he told the Turks, he is seeking to form a broad coalition across ethnic and sectarian lines, to include sidelined political leaders. ¶3. (C) Botsali said Allawi had no particular agenda in Turkey, but wanted to improve his relations with Iraq's neighbors in the runup to elections. He reportedly asked Turkey to use its influence to encourage Iraq's other neighbors to support Iraq's democratic development and particularly Allawi's own moderate coalition. Allawi appeared confident, well-connected with Iraq's Arab groups and apparently on good terms with the Barzani Kurds as well. (Note: That said, Celikkol noted with pleasure that Allawi was "well-informed on the importance of Kirkuk to the future of Iraq," suggesting Allawi indicated to the Turks he thought Kirkuk ought not come under Kurdish control. End Note.) ¶4. (C) Although he presented himself as an Iraqi nationalist and warned against Iranian influence in Iraq, Botsali told us the Turkish MFA suspects Allawi is maintaining a "second track" with Iran and recommended we watch this carefully. Overall the MFA seemed impressed with Allawi and viewed his visit as positive. In the GOT view, Allawi's goal in the short to medium term is to garner enough votes in upcoming elections to be Iraq's "kingmaker." Botsali noted that Allawi appears quite close to the U.S. and wondered aloud if our intention is to boost his political stature. MCELDOWNEY