A SNAPSHOT OF TURKEY,S SAADET PARTY: LEFT-WING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 004911

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2025
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS TU
SUBJECT: A SNAPSHOT OF TURKEY,S SAADET PARTY: LEFT-WING
ISLAMISM

Classified By: POLCOUNS John Kunstadter; E.O. 12958, reasons 1.4 (b,d)



1. (C) Summary. Saadet Party is the latest incarnation of
Islamist parties formed by political Islam leader Necmettin
Erbakan. The party,s members are hardcore Islamists (while
not averse to material wealth),but their rhetoric often
combines elements of Islamism with a leftwing inspired
criticism of West. Temel Karamollaoglu, Saadet,s VP for
International Affairs, is an anti-American religious bigot,
whose ideas are unfortunately all too common in Saadet. End
Summary.


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SAADET,S BACKGROUND AND INFLUENCE
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2. (U) Saadet (Felicity) Party is an Islamist party
ostensibly led by acting chairman Recai Kutan, but actually
run by former PM Necmettin Erbakan from behind the scenes.
Saadet is the latest incarnation of an Erbakan-controlled
Islamist party. Erbakan,s earlier parties --- the Refah
(Welfare) Party (1998-2001),the Fazilet (Virtue) Party
(1983-1998),and the National Salvation Party (MSP)
(1972-1980) --- were all banned by the state. In the summer
of 2001, after the banning of the Refah Party, the
Islam-oriented political movement in Turkey split in two.
One group led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Abdullah Gul formed
the Justice and Development Party (AKP). A second group of
Erbakan loyalists, however, formed Saadet Party.


3. (U) Saadet remains under the cloud of Erbakan,s past
corruption. Erbakan is currently facing the possibility of
jail time for a court case involving millions of dollars
missing from the banned Refah Party,s coffers.


4. (C) Some inaccurately portray AKP as Refah,s clean,
moderate wing and Saadet as the corrupt, radical wing.
Although AKP tries to portray itself as a clean and moderate
"conservative democratic" party, the party is dominated by
hardcore members of the political-Islam National View (Milli
Gorus) movement and corruption remains a problem.


5. (C) Saadet received only 2.5 percent of the vote in the
November 2002 election and it does not control any seats in
the parliament, but its influence is much greater than these
numbers would suggest. Saadet sits on governing AKP,s
Islamist flank, and AKP,s leadership carefully watches
Saadet,s frequent criticism on "Islamist issues" including,
for example, criticism that AKP has been effective on
removing headscarf restrictions. Newspapers and some
contacts routinely speculate that 20-50 AKP MPs will leave
the party and join Saadet; but despite defections to
center-right parties, no AKP MP has yet defected to Saadet.
However, if AKP,s leadership makes a mistake that alienates
Islamist voters, a number of AKP,s MPs and grassroots
supporters could indeed jump to Saadet.


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THE FUTURE OF THE SAADET PARTY LEADERSHIP
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6. (C) Although Kutan is loyal to Erbakan, he is weak and
ineffectual and there are rumors that he may be replaced this
fall at the Saadet Party convention. If Erbakan's legal
troubles bar him from the chairmanship, then a number of
other candidates will vie for the job. Numan Kurtulus, the
former Istanbul Fazilet Party chairman, is a leading
candidate. He is popular with party adherents, but may not
be loyal enough in Erbakan's eyes to merit the chairmanship.
Another possible candidate is Mete Gundogan, Erbakan,s
economics advisor. Gundogan is also close to Oguzhan
Asilturk, a Saadet ideologue and one of the most influential
members of the party. Former Justice Minister Sevket Kazan
is another candidate mentioned. He is seen as a
representative of the party,s old guard. Former Konya mayor
Mustafa Ozkafa and former State Ministers Teoman Riza Guneri
and Ahmet Demircan are also mentioned as possible candidates
to replace Kutan.


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KARAMOLLOGLU,S LEFTWING ISLAMISM
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7. (C) POLOFFs met with Temel Karamollaoglu, Saadet's Vice
President for International Affairs. Karamollaoglu, who is
married to an English woman who converted to Islam, is a
controversial figure. He was the mayor of Sivas in July 1993
when a Sunni mob started a fire at a hotel where Alevi
(heterodox Muslims) organizations were holding a meeting.
Thirty-seven people died in the fire. Karamollaoglu was
captured on television several hours before the incident
inciting the mob with anti-Alevi rhetoric. He later became a
member of parliament and was never prosecuted for his actions.


8. (C) Karamollaoglu,s philosophy is a good illustration of
the strange mixture of left-wing and Islamic rhetoric common
in Saadet. He said Saadet is the party of the National View
(Milli Gorus) movement. He claimed that they are not racist,
but defenders of human rights, democracy, equality, and world
peace. He lamented the unfair distribution of wealth within
Turkey and, more generally, within the world. He also
criticized the fact that girls are being denied the right of
education due to Turkey's requirement that university
students not wear headscarves.


9. (C) Saadet Party is not anti-American, Karamollaoglu tried
to claim, but it is against the policies of the Bush
Administration. Karamollaoglu doesn't like the phrase "war
on terror," which he believes President Bush uses as a code
word for a war against Muslims. He also claimed that
President Bush equates terror with Al Qaida and Al Qaida with
Islam. He believes that Secretary of State Rice has decreed
that the borders of the Middle East must change as part of
the Broader Middle East Initiative. He is, moreover, deeply
suspicious of the official US description of the events
surrounding 9-11 and told POLOFFs that he suspects Muslims
had nothing to do with the attacks.


10. (C) Comment. Karamollaoglu is an anti-American religious
bigot, whose ideas are common in Saadet. He thinks that
American wealth and power are rooted in selfish exploitation
and militarism. He also concludes that President Bush speaks
in code words, because that is how Karamollaoglu and other
Milli Gorus leaders --- including all Saadet Party members
and many members of the governing Justice and Development
Party (AKP) --- communicate with their followers. End
Comment.
MCELDOWNEY