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05ANKARA427 2005-01-26 16:15:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Ankara
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Tags:   PREL TU CY 
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					  C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000427 



E.O.12958: DECL: 01/26/2015

REFS: A. 2004 ANKARA 6845

B. 2004 ANKARA 6887

C. MOSCOW 0642

(U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter, E.O.
12958, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

1. (C) Summary: Turkish MFA Northeastern Mediterranean
Affairs acting DDG Bilman is confident Turkey will sign the
Ankara Agreement extension protocol this summer, but in the
face of domestic criticism about the lack of measures to help
Turkish Cypriots, the MFA is not inclined to propose
unilateral Turkish concessions. The MFA is considering
proposing a package of mutual confidence-building measures,
but the Turkish bureaucracy has yet to agree on its contents.
Despite Putin's promises of Russian support on Cyprus to PM
Erdogan, the Turks have seen no change in Russian behavior.
End Summary.

MFA Not Inclined to Propose Unilateral Turkish Moves



2. (C) Bilman said he had been "bashed" at a January 25
interagency meeting on Cyprus attended by the MFA and "other
institutions" (meaning the military). Bilman did not
enumerate the specific criticisms, but in the recent past has
told us the consistent sore point is lack of measures for
Turkish Cypriots. Given this situation, the MFA feels it is
in no position to propose unilateral Turkish concessions to
the AK government and the rest of the bureaucracy. Bilman
predicted Papadopoulos would simply pocket any such
concessions, give nothing, and demand more.

3. (C) Bilman remains confident Turkey will sign the Ankara
Agreement extension protocol, probably this summer.

4. (C) Bilman professed to have no information about the
proposed February visit to Turkey by the Greek Cypriot DISY
party. He did not know whether DISY President Anastassiades
would come or whom he would see. Bilman confessed the MFA
had no visibility inside PM Erdogan's office, saying the MFA
is not in a position to ask about the PM's appointments.

Mutual CBMs Proposal Possible, But No Agreement on Content



5. (C) Bilman argued that the Greek Cypriots should be the
ones to make concessions, since the Turks and Turkish
Cypriots did everything the UN asked. However, he conceded
the reality that the impact of this will fade over time, and
that international (especially EU) perceptions of continued
Turkish political will to reach a settlement are important,
but said many in the Turkish establishment do not understand

6. (C) Asked about the possibility of Turkey proposing a
package of confidence-building measures (CBMs) involving
concessions by both sides, Bilman agrees this is feasible and
claimed the MFA is considering it. The problem is there is
no agreement about what measures Turkey should propose for
either side. With a laugh, Bilman said that after Land
Forces Commander Buyukanit's January 25 statement that there
will be no troop pullouts absent an overall settlement, troop
reduction is probably off the table as a CBM.

Turks See No Change in Russian Behavior On Cyprus



7. (C) According to Bilman, neither the Turkish Embassy in
Moscow nor the Turkish UN Mission has yet seen any change in
Russian behavior on Cyprus, despite Putin's promises to
Erdogan during Putin's December visit to Ankara (refs A and
B) and Erdogan's January visit to Moscow (ref C). Bilman
claimed the MFA had information that Putin indeed called
UNSYG Annan twice after his December Ankara visit, but only
discussed generalities. When UNSYG Annan raised the Good
Offices Mission Report, Putin reportedly dodged by saying
Russia would have to see the proposed text of any related
UNSCR before taking a position.