TURKISH MFA ON CYPRUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000427 SIPDIS ISTANBUL PLS PASS ADANA E.O.12958: DECL: 01/26/2015 TAGS: PREL TU CY SUBJECT: TURKISH MFA ON CYPRUS REFS: A. 2004 ANKARA 6845 ¶B. 2004 ANKARA 6887 ¶C. MOSCOW 0642 (U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter, E.O. 12958, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Turkish MFA Northeastern Mediterranean Affairs acting DDG Bilman is confident Turkey will sign the Ankara Agreement extension protocol this summer, but in the face of domestic criticism about the lack of measures to help Turkish Cypriots, the MFA is not inclined to propose unilateral Turkish concessions. The MFA is considering proposing a package of mutual confidence-building measures, but the Turkish bureaucracy has yet to agree on its contents. Despite Putin's promises of Russian support on Cyprus to PM Erdogan, the Turks have seen no change in Russian behavior. End Summary. MFA Not Inclined to Propose Unilateral Turkish Moves -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Bilman said he had been "bashed" at a January 25 interagency meeting on Cyprus attended by the MFA and "other institutions" (meaning the military). Bilman did not enumerate the specific criticisms, but in the recent past has told us the consistent sore point is lack of measures for Turkish Cypriots. Given this situation, the MFA feels it is in no position to propose unilateral Turkish concessions to the AK government and the rest of the bureaucracy. Bilman predicted Papadopoulos would simply pocket any such concessions, give nothing, and demand more. ¶3. (C) Bilman remains confident Turkey will sign the Ankara Agreement extension protocol, probably this summer. ¶4. (C) Bilman professed to have no information about the proposed February visit to Turkey by the Greek Cypriot DISY party. He did not know whether DISY President Anastassiades would come or whom he would see. Bilman confessed the MFA had no visibility inside PM Erdogan's office, saying the MFA is not in a position to ask about the PM's appointments. Mutual CBMs Proposal Possible, But No Agreement on Content -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Bilman argued that the Greek Cypriots should be the ones to make concessions, since the Turks and Turkish Cypriots did everything the UN asked. However, he conceded the reality that the impact of this will fade over time, and that international (especially EU) perceptions of continued Turkish political will to reach a settlement are important, but said many in the Turkish establishment do not understand this. ¶6. (C) Asked about the possibility of Turkey proposing a package of confidence-building measures (CBMs) involving concessions by both sides, Bilman agrees this is feasible and claimed the MFA is considering it. The problem is there is no agreement about what measures Turkey should propose for either side. With a laugh, Bilman said that after Land Forces Commander Buyukanit's January 25 statement that there will be no troop pullouts absent an overall settlement, troop reduction is probably off the table as a CBM. Turks See No Change in Russian Behavior On Cyprus -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) According to Bilman, neither the Turkish Embassy in Moscow nor the Turkish UN Mission has yet seen any change in Russian behavior on Cyprus, despite Putin's promises to Erdogan during Putin's December visit to Ankara (refs A and B) and Erdogan's January visit to Moscow (ref C). Bilman claimed the MFA had information that Putin indeed called UNSYG Annan twice after his December Ankara visit, but only discussed generalities. When UNSYG Annan raised the Good Offices Mission Report, Putin reportedly dodged by saying Russia would have to see the proposed text of any related UNSCR before taking a position. EDELMAN