SENATOR HAGEL REINFORCES IMPORTANCE OF BILATERAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 003195

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SE AND H

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2015
TAGS: MARR MASS PGOV PREL OVIP TU
SUBJECT: SENATOR HAGEL REINFORCES IMPORTANCE OF BILATERAL
RELATIONSHIP WITH TURKEY

Classified By: Charge d'Affairs James R. Moore, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (C) SUMMARY: During his May 30-31 visit to Ankara, Senator
Chuck Hagel met with Prime Minister Erdogan, Energy Minister
Guler, Agriculture Minister Guclu and MFA Deputy Under
Secretary Sensoy and exchanged views on the state of the

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bilateral relationship, Cyprus, Armenia, the PKK terrorist
organization, Iranian nuclear ambitions, energy development
and irrigation technology. He underscored the positive value
of the bilateral relationship; welcomed Turkey's support for
the Global War on Terrorism, particularly its contributions
to operations in Iraq and Afghanistan; lauded the start of
the Baku/Tbilisi/Ceyan (BTC) pipeline operation but
highlighted the importance of pipeline security; and invited
the Agriculture Minister to visit Nebraska to learn more
about US irrigation technology. The Senator used a TV
interview to publicly underscore the importance of the
bilateral relationship and laid a wreath at the mausoleum of
Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish republic. END SUMMARY.

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Prime Minister Reinforces Shared Priorities
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2. (C) Attempting to dismiss those who want to take Turkey
away from close relations with the US as "marginal groups",
PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan asserted that we have a strategic
partnership and that Turkey and the US share common views on
regional issues and on the fight against terrorism. He went
on at length regarding the efforts of the Armenian diaspora
to have genocide resolutions passed in various fora.
Regarding Cyprus, he complained that, although the Turkish
Cypriots had accepted the Annan Plan, they are still held in
isolation, whereas the Greek Cypriots rejected the plan but
are in the EU. He welcomed the May 30 visit of the US
Congressional Study Group to the north, but hoped that the US
and others would launch more comprehensive initiatives.
Turkey's relations with Iraq are also important; meetings
with visiting Iraqi PM Ja'afari were positive and Turkey will
give all possible support for Iraq's democratization and for
police and military training.


3. (C) Underscoring his respect for Ataturk, Senator Hagel
noted that US-Turkish relations are founded on exceptionally
important dynamics. The US strongly supports Turkey's EU
accession. Regarding the Armenia issue, Hagel recalled that
the Bush administration and most members of Congress agree
the issue is best dealt with openly, transparently, and
without fear of the results. At the Senator's urging, EUCOM
Deputy Commander General Wald added his views. Complimenting
the work of Ambassador Edelman, Wald emphasized the solid
nature of mil-mil relations. From EUCOM's perspective,
relations couldn't be any better than they are with Generals
Ozkok and Basbug at the helm of the Turkish General Staff
(TGS). EUCOM considers the Turkish military one of its most
strategically important partners. Erdogan visibly tensed at
this US show of support for the Turkish military.

4.(C) Senator Hagel asked Erdogan for his assessment of (1)
Iran's energy and nuclear policies; (2) prospects for the
Iranian Presidential elections; and (3) US policy. Erdogan,
seeming unsure of himself, provided a vague response.
Praising Turco-Iranian intel sharing against the PKK, he
stated generally that Turkey has a common view with the US on
Iranian nukes, and noted that the elections are delicate
given the unresolved relationship between elected political
authority and the power structures of the mollahs outside the
normal political arena. In this regard, Erdogan could not
see which side would benefit more from a victory by apparent
front-runner Rafsanjani.

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Meeting with CHOD General Hilmi Ozkok
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5. (C) US-Turkey Relations and the Modern World: TGS Chief
General Hilmi Ozkok welcomed Senator Hagel and EUCOM DCDR
General Wald, noting that he did not see any big problems in
US-Turkey relations. Despite the media's attempt to create
tensions, Turkey and the US had a history of successfully
overcoming their differences. Even though Turkey sought to
join the EU, its alliance with the US would remain important.
Senator Hagel observed that Prime Minister Erdogan's planned
meeting with the President on June 8 would be a timely and
important opportunity to strengthen bilateral relations as
the two leaders would be able to frame the challenges we face
in the Middle East, security arena and elsewhere in a way
that emphasizes our common objectives.


6. (C) Ozkok observed that regional peace and stability were
important and he appreciated that the US was not indifferent
to the problems in Africa, Iran and Uzbekistan. Senator
Hagel stated that now was much like the immediate post-World
War II period when the international system was redefined.
New alliances were forming based on economic, geo-strategic
energy, and other interests. The US was grappling with the
idea that our interests no longer fit in the compartments of
the past but were "everywhere." He predicted that the
process would produce a better system, although he cautioned
that care would be needed in recalibrating and adjusting
alliances of continuing value, such as the US-Turkey
relationship.


7. (C) Turkey "Cautious" towards Iran: The Senator asked
Ozkok for his assessment of developments in Iran. Ozkok said
Iran's "obvious aspirations" for nuclear weapons was a "big
concern" for Ankara which has "cautious relations" with
Tehran. He noted that Iran already had means of delivery.
He said other countries needed to develop deterrence
mechanisms. Turkey supported the EU-3's attempt to solve
the problem in a peaceful way.


8. (C) Iraq: PKK, Insurgency and PR: Senator Hagel then asked
Ozkok for his view of Iraq. According to Ozkok, there was a
long way to go before achieving the aims shared by the US and
Turkey of a united, secure, stable, and prosperous Iraq that
was free of terrorism. The suicide bombings were very
discouraging. Overcoming them would require the cooperation
of the Iraqi people who do not support these attacks, which
appear to be carried out mainly by foreigners. Ozkok
declared that he was sure the US would be victorious in Iraq,
and pledged to provide whatever help Turkey could as "your
success is our security." Regarding the PKK in northern
Iraq, Ozkok said he understood that Turkey needed to be
patient, and recalled that there are various fora for the US
and Turkey to discuss this problem.


9. (C) Ozkok turned to TGS/J2 LTG Guner to answer Senator
Hagel's question about former regime elements' role in the
insurgency in Iraq. Guner said that information was hard to
come by, but his assessment was that there were a large
number of Baathists and other former regime elements in the
insurgency, but that they were "very well organized" by
foreigners. He recalled that some observers claim that the
country supplying the foreigners to the fight views the
conflict as a means of fighting its own war with the US. TGS
Deputy Chief GEN Basbug added that he had read a think tank
report recently that asserted there were 200,000 supporters
of the insurgency in Iraq, although USG sources place the
number of fighters somewhere between 15-20,000. Senator
Hagel, referring to the Turks' offer to Iraqi Transitional PM
Ja'afari to train police and military in Turkey, asked where
this might occur. Ozkok responded that no decisions had yet
been made, but somewhere close to the Iraqi border (e.g.,
Diyarbakir or Silopi) might make the most sense.


10. (C) Ozkok disagreed with Senator Hagel's assertion that
the US's low standing with the Turkish public was due to the
USG's Iraq policy. He dismissed polls as being too easily
manipulated by the wording of their questions. He thought
there had been a downturn in public perception of the US as a
result of some statements made by USG officials before and
immediately after the March 1 vote. Turks are "very
sensitive" and "these statements effected them a lot," he
said. While he allowed that the Turkish public had questions
about US intentions in the Middle East and that "sympathy for
the US is down," he believed leaders could heal this problem.


11. (C) Mil-Mil Relations Good: Senator Hagel observed that
the Ambassador would be departing soon and had been nominated
to a position in the Pentagon where his Foreign experience
would serve him well. This led to a general discussion of
the bilateral military-to-military relationship, which all
agreed was excellent at the senior levels. The Ambassador
observed that both sides should build on this by increasing
unit-to-unit exchanges, such as those discussed between CDR
USAREUR GEN Bell and Turkish Land Forces Commander GEN
Buyukanit, or as we recently had with the USS Carney's ship
visit to Marmaras. He also said that, if confirmed, he would
work to ensure the bilateral High Level Defense Group
structure worked more smoothly.

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Energy Cooperation Important
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12. (SBU) In May 31 small and large group meetings with
Turkey Minister of Energy Hilmi Guler and his team, Senator
Hagel's delegation discussed a range of regional and domestic
energy issues, including BTC security, East-West energy
corridor, and investment opportunities.


13. (SBU) BTC Security: Just one week after the "First Oil"
ceremony at Baku, Senator Hagel asked about the issue of
security and three-country coordination for the BTC oil
pipeline. General Wald inquired about coordination and
communication at the country borders, as well as about
Turkish Gendarme technical training for its neighbors.
Minister Guler and MFA DDG Mithat Rende stated that the GOT
was ready to cooperate, but admitted that there might be
security issues in Georgia. (Note: GOT has told us
separately that Georgia has not given enough importance to
advancing the Inter-Government Agreement and Commission on
security, so far failing to even designate a point person.
End Note.) Moreover, they noted in the meeting that trained
people in Georgia were being shifted to other positions.
Minister Guler stated that the Turkish General Command of the
Gendarmerie, reporting to the Ministry of the Interior, had
responsibility for pipeline security in Turkey; MFA is to
coordinate security with the other countries. Guler said
that the Gendarmerie had trained its own special forces, as
well as security personnel in Azerbaijan and Georgia. Note:
Embassy will follow up with the MFA to gain more details on
status of coordination, communication, and training. End
Note.


14. (SBU) East-West Energy Corridor and energy linkages:
Minister Guler stressed the importance of transferring
natural gas from Turkmenistan to Turkey and on to Europe,
particularly as an alternative to Iranian gas. He described
Turkey,s vision for expanding Ceyhan as a regional hub for
both oil and natural gas transit and processing. In response
to Senator Hagel,s question on levels of investment required
and linkages between energy and economic growth, Minister
Guler stated that immense amounts of investment in a
liberalized market would be required to assure adequate
production (including nuclear) and sufficient linkages
(electricity and hydrocarbons) with Iraq and Europe. The
Turkish representatives emphasized the danger of increasing
oil transport in the Turkish Straits, bringing attention to
the need for one or several Bosphorus bypass pipelines. They
stressed environmental problems associated with trans-Thrace
and Burgos-Alexandropolos (the seeming market front-runner)
projects, and argued in favor of a Samsun-Ceyhan route (the
long GOT favorite). Finally, Minister Guler lamented the
challenge of dealing with old power deals on the books
(BOT,s signed by the previous government),but noted the
need to maintain a positive investment environment to attract
foreign investors.

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Agriculture Minister Highlights South-East Development Needs
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15. (U) Agriculture Minister Sami Guclu highlighted strong
bilateral cooperation in the agriculture sector but noted
that they were some trade issues that would take time and
open communication to resolve. Guclu specifically noted
bilateral cooperation in scientific research, animal
husbandry, seed research and development, and scientific
exchanges.


16. (U) In response to the Senator's question about areas for
potential improvement in bilateral trade, Minister Guclu
noted the Southeast Anatolia (GAP) Irrigation Project and the
related opportunity for private investment and development of
an export-driven free processing center in that
underdeveloped region. Senator Hagel indicated that several
Nebraska-based companies had developed high-tech expertise to
provide irrigation solutions that have successfully brought
thousands of hectares into cultivation. The Senator invited
Guclu to visit Nebraska with the US Agriculture Secretary to
meet with irrigation experts. He also stressed that the
University of Nebraska has one of the largest livestock
research centers in the world.


17. (U) Guclu noted that Agriculture Under Secretary Cagil
would be in the United States for the June 6-8 American
Turkish Council Conference and that he would have them call
on Senator Hagel's staff. (Comment: Two days after his
meeting with Senator Hagel, Guclu was removed from his
position as Minister of Agriculture as part of a cabinet
re-shuffle. Although his replacement was not unexpected, its
timing was a surprise. End Comment.)

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Public Reaffirmation of the Importance of the Relationship
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18. (U) During an interview with one of Turkey's most
respected journalists, NTV Television's Murat Akgun, Senator
Hagel discussed the issues foremost on the minds of Turkey's
citizens - the bilateral relationship, Turkey's EU candidacy,
the PKK terrorist group and Cyprus. The Senator publicly
reaffirmed the importance and mutual benefit of the bilateral
relationship, a positive and striking contrast to the public
comments by his Turkish counterparts, and something we
continually press the Turkish government to do.


19. (U) This cable was cleared by Senator Hagel and General
Wald.
MOORE