C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002726

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM TU OSCE PKK
SUBJECT: TURKEY ON EDGE OVER EXPECTED EUROPEAN COURT OF
HUMAN RIGHTS CALL FOR RETRIAL OF PKK LEADER OCALAN

REF: ANKARA 2525

(U) Classified by Ambassador Eric S. Edelman; reasons 1.4 b
and d.


1. (C) Summary: The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) is
expected to announce May 12 that Abdullah Ocalan, leader of
the terrorist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) did not receive a
fair trial in 1999 and is entitled to a retrial. Nationalism
is always volatile in Turkey, and an Ocalan retrial could
spark conflict between nationalists and Kurdish activists.
Ruling AK Party (AKP) leaders, who have no discernible
strategy for dealing with nationalism or the Kurdish issue,
have urged calm, but opposition leaders have made provocative
statements. Members of a party close to the PKK hold foolish
hopes that a retrial could lead to a resolution of the
Kurdish issue. End Summary.

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ECHR Expected to Call for Retrial
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2. (U) As reported reftel, the ECHR Grand Chamber will
announce May 12 its final ruling in Ocalan's appeal of his
1999 conviction. The Grand Chamber is expected to uphold the
2003 ruling of a lower ECHR court that Ocalan did not receive
a fair trial. Observers also expect the ECHR to rule that
Ocalan is entitled to a retrial in a Turkish court. Such a
decision would not automatically lead to a new trial -- a
three-judge Turkish high penal court would vote on whether to
approve a retrial application. However, our contacts say a
retrial is likely.


3. (C) An ECHR verdict in favor of a retrial would come in
the context of always volatile, but now sharper, nationalism
in Turkey, the most explicit examples of which are recent
disturbances in the wake of an alleged attempt by a group of
Kurdish children to burn a Turkish flag. A retrial could
become a catalyst for clashes between nationalists and
Kurdish activists.

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AKP, Opposition Send Mixed Signals
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4. (U) Leaders from the ruling AKP, which has no discernible

strategy for dealing with nationalism or the Kurdish
question, have made statements intended to calm public
opinion and warn against exploiting a retrial for political
gain. FM Gul assured the public May 10 that Ocalan will be
re-convicted, even if he is retried 100 times. Justice
Minister Cicek said the retrial is a matter for the
judiciary, not politicians, and urged Deniz Baykal, leader of
the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), to adopt a
"responsible" approach to the issue.


5. (U) Baykal, however, seems disinclined to take the advice.
He told CHP MPs that "nobody should expect us to find it
natural" if the ECHR rules that Ocalan's trial was unfair.
He charged that such a decision would "offend 70 million
people in Turkey." Members of the Nationalist Movement Party
(MHP) have also warned that a retrial would have negative
consequences.


6. (C) We discussed the issue with leaders of the pro-Kurdish
Democratic Peoples' Party (DEHAP), which is close to the PKK.
DEHAP President Tuncer Bakirhan told us DEHAP will issue a
two-pronged announcement May 12 after the ECHR issues its
ruling; the party will call on the PKK to avoid any
offensives, and urge the GOT not to take any initiatives that
would fuel nationalism and anti-Kurdish sentiment.

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Kurdish Party: Retrial An "Opportunity"
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7. (C) Both Bakirhan and Nazmi Gur, DEHAP foreign affairs
advisor, averred to us that the Kurdish community views an
Ocalan retrial as an "opportunity" to improve relations with
the Turkish State. They share the widely held assumption
that Ocalan will be re-convicted and given the same sentence
(Ocalan was sentenced to death in 1999, but his punishment
was converted to life imprisonment after Turkey abolished the
death penalty). However, wrapped in wishful thinking, they
believe that a new, fair trial for the terrorist leader could
lead to a softening of the State's approach to the PKK.


8. (C) Bakirhan asserted a new trial would provide Ocalan
with a platform to explain to the Turkish public what kinds
of cultural and political freedoms Kurds are seeking. If the
trial is handled fairly and openly, and Ocalan is permitted
to speak freely, Bakirhan believes, Ocalan could convince the
Turkish State and public that Kurdish identity is not a
threat to national unity. Gur even suggested that a retrial
could lead to a decision by the GOT to offer a general
amnesty to PKK militants.


9. (C) Bakirhan opined that problems will arise only if the
GOT declares that the retrial is being held under pressure by
an EU seeking to divide and weaken Turkey. He said such an
approach would lead to rising anti-Western nationalism, which
in turn would stoke Kurdish nationalism. He said he does not
expect the GOT to take such an approach, because doing so
would severely undermine Turkey's EU candidacy.

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Comment
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10. (C) Our DEHAP contacts are way off base in imagining that
a retrial could lead to a resolution of the PKK conflict.
Indeed, Ocalan is guaranteed to offend both the Turkish State
and the populace at large with his badly distilled brew of
neo-Marxist-Leninist jargon and stale, third-world
ideological ramblings.


11. (C) We can only hope that a new trial will not make
matters worse. Apart from CHP and MHP, most political
leaders so far seem to share that hope. But if it is true
that the Kurdish community holds high expectations for the
consequences of a retrial, they are likely to be bitterly
disappointed. CHP Chairman Baykal's comments indicate that
if Kurds take to the streets to express their frustrations,
the nationalists will be there to confront them.
EDELMAN