IRAQ SUNNI OUTREACH: AMMAN MEETING WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 009516

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2015
TAGS: PREL KDEM IZ JO
SUBJECT: IRAQ SUNNI OUTREACH: AMMAN MEETING WITH
EX-MINISTER OF TRADE MOHAMMED AL-JABOURI AND SHEIKH ADNAN
AL-JABOURI


Classified By: AMBASSADOR DAVID HALE, REASONS: 1.4 (B &D)

Sheikh Adnan Al-Jabouri and the "Arab Iraqi List"
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1. (C) Prominent Salah ad-Din Sunni figure Adnan al-Jabouri
told Emboff on November 30 that he is supporting the "Arab
Iraqi List," a regional party possibly affilited with Hassib
al-Obeidi's Arab List. The meeting occurred at the request
of his cousin, former Minister of Trade Mohammed al-Jabouri,
who is now working as an energy consultant in Amman. Adnan
had just returned from a week in Riyadh, where he met with
Saudi officials, along with Hassib al-Obeidi and other
figures from Salah ad-Din, Mosul, and Kirkuk.

Bringing Insurgents onto the "Political Track"...
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2. (C) Adnan claimed that he has the blessing of the major
Sunni political movements, as well as that of Iyad Allawi, to
help develop a list of core principles on Iraq,s future that
would be acceptable to these various political groupings and
to a significant body of "nationalist insurgents." He said
that the goal of the effort is to increase the policy
coherence of the Sunni parties and the Allawi coalition,
bring more insurgent groups "onto the political track," and
hopefully prepare the groundwork for a post-election
Sunni/Allawi alliance.

...Through an "All-Sunni" Manifesto
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3. (C) The immediate aim of such an effort would be a signed
manifesto-like document declaring the shared principles, and
the formation of united Sunni political committees for Anbar,
Diyala, Salah ad-Din, Ninewa, and Baghdad. Adnan Jabouri
said he would be meeting in Iraq in the coming week with
Mishaan al-Jabouri and others, including some pro-insurgency
figures, in pursuit of these goals. Note: Al-Jabouri took
pains to differentiate this effort from the similar
Anbar-oriented proposal launched last September by Abdul
Latif Humayum and Saleh Mutlak. End Note.

Iraq Election Comments
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4. (C) On the upcoming elections, al-Jabouri opined that
Iyad Allawi will have difficulty winning seats in many parts
of the south, but suggested that Allawi could potentially do
well in Baghdad, Basra, Nasiriyyah, and the Central
Euphrates. He claimed that Muqtada al Sadr is gaining ground
among Sh,ia voters, and may be supported by one third of
them, while Sh,ia support for Da'wa and SCIRI is weakening.
Commenting that "no one party will be able to rule Iraq from
now on," Mohammed al-Jabouri (backed by Adnan) made the
following election result predictions:

Sunni Arab Groups - 55-60 seats

Allawi Coalition - 50-55 seats

Kurds - 45-50 seats


5. (C) The al-Jabouris contend that if the election produces
150 seats among the three above groups, they would be joined
by independent Sh,ia, such as Shal,an and Chalabi, and end
up with a two-thirds majority. In response, they predicted
that Da'wa, SCIRI, and the pro-Iranians will "try to create
an Anbar in the south."

Follow-Up
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6. (C) Adnan al-Jabouri agreed to meet with USG
representatives in Salah ad-Din, and to assist in USG
contacts with Jabouri tribal figures from Syria. He claimed
that the Jabouris are the biggest tribe in Syria. Mohammed
al-Jabouri, Director General of the State Oil Marketing
Organization (SOMO) from May-November, 2003, and Minister of
Trade under Iyad Allawi, was emphatic that he will accept no
appointment in any future Iraqi government.
HALE