IRAQ ELECTION: IRAQI PARTIES CAMPAIGN FOR VOTES IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 009513

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2015
TAGS: KDEM PREL IZ JO
SUBJECT: IRAQ ELECTION: IRAQI PARTIES CAMPAIGN FOR VOTES IN
JORDAN

REF: A. AMMAN 3963


B. AMMAN 7709

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DAVID HALE, REASONS: 1.4 (B &D)

Summary
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1. (C) While 23,000 Iraqis in Jordan voted in the January
2005 elections, Iraqi turnout in Jordan for next week's
elections should be significantly higher due to a more
proactive campaign effort in Jordan by several Iraqi
political parties, greater Sunni Arab participation, efforts
by theIndependent Electoral Commission of Iraq to explain the
electoral process, and better information on candidates.
Iraqi political party activity here includes widespread
placement of posters, newspaper advertisements, SMS messages
on mobile phones, free food, and (allegedly),some cash
payments. The Allawi, Dulaime, and Mutlak coalitions appear
to be making the greatest effort. In contrast, al-Hakim,s
UIC is showing no public presence at all, though it may be
well organized behind the scenes. End Summary.

Iraqi Voters in Jordan
--------------


2. (SBU) Background: Jordan is currently the home of the
world's largest expatriate Iraqi community - the Iraqi
Embassy in Amman estimates that about 500,000 Iraqis live in
Jordan, and some unofficial estimates are considerably
higher. While the bulk of Iraqis who came to Jordan before
2004 were predominantly Sh,ia, since 2004 there has been a
large influx of Sunni Arabs, many middle class and above (Ref
A). Many of these new arrivals view themselves as being here
temporarily, and hope to return to Iraq after conditions
stabilize. Although many are not official "residents" of
Jordan, the GOJ has agreed that all Iraqis of voting age
present in Jordan may participate in the Iraq Out-of-Country
Voting (OCV) process without fear of investigation or
penalties.


3. (SBU) Prior to the January 2005 Iraqi election, the
International Organization for Migration (IOM) - which was
then responsible for administering the OCV process -
estimated the total number of potential Iraqi voters in
Jordan at up to 200,000. In the election, however, only
23,000 Iraqis actually voted. Hamdia al-Husseini, head of
the Amman-based Independent Election Commission for Iraq
(IECI) office that is directly administering the December,
2005 elections, told Emboff she believes that as many as
300,000 eligible Iraqi voters may now be in Jordan. End
Background.

High Turnout Projected
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4. (SBU) Whatever the actual figure of potential voters,
Post contacts agree that Iraqi participation in Jordan next
week will be much higher than last January. Jordanian daily
newspaper Al-Arab Al-Youm projected that as many as 70
percent of eligible Iraqis in Jordan will vote. While Post
contacts are less sanguine, all predicted that the December
OCV turnout here would exceed 50,000.


5. (SBU) Contacts maintain that the projected upswing in
turnout will result from increased interest in voting among
Sunnis, IECI advertisements that explain the electoral
process and the documentation required to vote, much-improved
information about parties and candidates, a greater sense of
this election,s importance, and significant post-January
election regret among those who did not participate in that
election. Majid al-Sadi, a prominent businessman who did not
vote in the January election, told Emboff that he considered
voting this time around a "national duty." Hassan Aldahan,
another January election non-participant, explained that
"last time I knew nothing about the candidates - this time
there is much more information." Aldahan noted that he and
his friends actively watch Iraqi election candidate
programming on satellite TV stations al-Iraqiyya and
al-Sharqiyya.

Iraqi Political Parties Seek Votes
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6. (C) Al-Sadi, Aldahan, and other contacts also note more
effective political party organizations and media campaigns
targeting Iraqi voters in Jordan this time around. Until
recently, many Amman neighborhoods and highway overpasses
were replete with a variety of political posters advertising
the parties of Iyad Allawi, Saleh Mutlak, Hassib al-Obeidi,
Hazim Sha,lan, and others. Some of these were allegedly
removed by rival parties or Jordanian authorities within a
few hours of being posted; Ja,afar al-Taie, an Allawi
campaign manager, told Emboff that someone wrote "don,t
support Ba,athists" over some of the Allawi posters.
Al-Taie opined that this incident contributed to a subsequent
decision by the Municipality of Amman to limit Iraqi election
posters to the immediate vicinity of Amman,s ten OCV polling
sites. Note: Al-Taie and al-Sadi also asserted that a
planned Allawi support rally following the recent Najaf
incident was cancelled by Jordanian authorities. End Note.


7. (SBU) Several Iraqi political parties are also
advertising heavily in Jordanian newspapers. In recent days
several full and half-page color ads have appeared in
Jordanian newspapers on behalf of the coalitions of Iyad
Allawi, Adnan Dulaime, and Saleh Mutlak, as well as Hazim
Sha,lan,s party, with smaller ads appearing for the
Movement of Arab Iraqis and the Iraqi Coalition, led by
ex-Interior Minister Nuri Badran. The Dulaime coalition also
sent an SMS to Jordanian mobile phones (including Emboff,s)
telling Iraqis in Jordan that a vote for them is a "vote for
honesty and against sectionalism and sectarianism." Former
Saddam Hussein associate, Anbar native, and January election
boycotter Abdul Latif Humayum gave an interview to a
Jordanian newspaper calling on all Iraqis in Jordan to vote.

Free Dinners and Food Parcels
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8. (C) Al-Taie, Aldahan, and independent Sunni political
dabbler Mohammed al-Hamdi from Ramadhi (Ref B) told Emboff
that Saleh Mutlak,s coalition rented out some local
restaurants and night clubs to host free parties and dinners
in support of their cause. Al-Hamdi said that Mutlak,s
Jordan OCV campaign is being managed by two of his eight
brothers, Musleh and Taha, who have opened a campaign office
in downtown Amman. Iyad Allawi,s coalition has also opened
a campaign office in Amman. Both al-Hamdi and Embassy Sunni
contact Husam Ghazalee (close to Hassib al-Obeidi - protect)
alleged that several parties, including Mutlak,s, are
offering cash payments and other inducements to those who can
turn out Jordan-based voters in their favor. Al-Taie
admitted that the Allawi group is sending food packages to
poor Iraqis in Jordan, and sponsoring football matches
featuring well-known Iraqi players, with the same goal in
mind.

Where is the UIC?
--------------


9. (C) Sh,ia religious parties, including the Unified Iraqi
Coalition (UIC),have not advertised to date in Jordanian
papers or undertaken any other campaign activities here that
we have been able to identify. Al-Hamdi claimed that the
Sh,ia religious parties rely on neighborhood networks to
turn out their vote; Aldahan asserted that an explicit
message from religious leaders in Najaf is all that is
necessary to activate these voters. The UIC won the
plurality of Jordanian OCV votes last January, followed by
Allawi,s group. Most Embassy contacts predict that next
week, Allawi,s coalition will end up first in Jordan, with
the UIC second; all felt that Allawi,s Jordan organization
was strong. However, at least one Jordanian paper recently
predicted that Allawi will finish behind both Dulaime,s and
Mutlak,s coalitions.

Comment
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10. (C) Iraq OCV campaigning in Jordan,s relatively open
atmosphere is a possible microcosm of what Iraqi urban
politicking could be like once Iraq,s situation stabilizes.
The relatively intense campaigning going on in Jordan
compared to last January is somewhat surprising given the
marginal impact of OCV (compared to in-Iraq voting) on
Iraq,s election outcome. It may reflect the greater
importance given to this election by the parties, as well as
a Sunni Arab desire to "stand up and be counted" as much as
possible this time around.
HALE