GOJ PREPARES FOR PUBLIC LAUNCH OF NATIONAL AGENDA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 008823 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2015 TAGS: PGOV KDEM EAID ECON JO SUBJECT: GOJ PREPARES FOR PUBLIC LAUNCH OF NATIONAL AGENDA REF: A. AMMAN 8584 ¶B. AMMAN 8422 ¶C. AMMAN 7979 ¶D. AMMAN 7498 ¶E. AMMAN 6898 Classified By: Acting DCM Christopher Henzel for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The GOJ continues preparations for the public launch this month of the report of the National Agenda commission. In a November 7 briefing to donors, Deputy PM Muasher laid out plans for the implementation of the report's reform recommendations. A strong marketing campaign will be necessary to sell the benefits of the program to a skeptical public. END SUMMARY. -------------- A THREE-PART REPORT -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Deputy Prime Minister Marwan Muasher - head of the royal commission drafting a comprehensive National Agenda - held a meeting November 7 to brief donor countries and organizations on the Agenda's status. (NOTE: Muasher last met with donors September 15, ref D. END NOTE.) Muasher confirmed that the National Agenda commission had completed its work, and said that its written report consisted of three parts. First, a glossy booklet for mass distribution that explained the commission's primary findings and recommendations was currently at the printers and would be finished within a week. Second, the report's "main document" of approximately 200 pages had already been bound and copied (in Arabic). Following a format based on UNDP reports, Muasher stated that this volume contained timetables and benchmarks to be used in implementing the recommended reforms, as well as a list of all 450 people who contributed to the drafting of the Agenda. An English version would, he hoped, be ready by the beginning of December. Finally, there were "several thousand pages" in eight hard-cover volumes containing "highly technical" background and supporting documentation, including all the research used by the commission in arriving at its recommendations. Muasher stated that complete information on the National Agenda would be available on-line in time for the Agenda's "public launch" at the following website: nationalagenda.jo. The government had not yet set a date for the launch, but was looking at the latter half of November. ¶3. (SBU) Muasher continued that the GOJ, led by Minister of State for Government Performance Ruwaideh Al Ma'aytah, would aggressively seek to implement the National Agenda's recommendations. The government plans to establish a monitoring and evaluation unit in each ministry to prepare regular "progress reports," which would be audited by a central Government Performance Unit (GPU) and the Cabinet. These progress reports, Muasher stressed, would be available to all Jordanians to ensure public accountability. Government programs not in line with the Agenda would eventually be modified or discontinued. Public spending would also be closely examined to ensure conformity with the Agenda. Muasher later added that while the Agenda was "binding" on the government, some of its recommendations might prove to be too expensive or "impractical" to implement. -------------- LOFTY GOALS -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Turning to the National Agenda itself, Muasher emphasized that while local press reports may have focused on only a few of its elements (i.e., elections, taxation, and the journalists' association - ref B),the Agenda was broad in scope and covered eight different themes. Many of the recommendations focused on economic issues as these were foremost in the minds of Jordanians. Acknowledging the economic problems facing the country, such as a bloated public sector and high budget deficits, Muasher said he was nevertheless confident that Jordan could achieve the Agenda's ambitious macroeconomic and social targets through its recommendations for tax reform, attracting investment, expanding credit, improving vocational training, and promoting labor-intensive, export-oriented industries. These targets included reducing the unemployment rate from the current 12.5% to 9.3% by 2012, and to 6.8% by 2017. Similarly, the Agenda envisions reducing the public debt from 91% of GDP to 36% of GDP by 2017, while at the same time cutting poverty rates from over 14% to 10%, and increasing the percentage of women in the total workforce from 12.5% to 20%. Muasher added that these targets were all the more challenging given that a large number of young Jordanians are set to enter the labor market each year for the foreseeable future. ¶5. (SBU) Regarding political reform, Muasher said the Agenda's goal was to "regulate," but not limit, public participation in political life. Noting that a free media was vital to political development, Muasher highlighted Agenda recommendations to prohibit the detention of journalists and for government divestiture of all equity - both direct and indirect - in the press. Other recommendations, according to Muasher, would strengthen NGOs, enhance the status of women, and provide funds and greater freedoms to political parties. Despite reported clashes over electoral reform (refs A,C-D),Muasher said it was very noteworthy that the commission agreed on a "starting point" (i.e., a "mixed system" electing MPs from individual districts and national party lists) and the "final goal" (i.e., the eventual election of all MPs from political party lists). The Agenda also sought to bolster the role of parliament so that MPs could draft and initiate legislation - something now done only by the government - and exercise more oversight over government functions. -------------- FUNDING -------------- ¶6. (C) Muasher stated that approximately 7.5 billion Jordanian dinars (JD) - roughly USD 10.5 billion - would be needed over the 20-year life of the Agenda to fully fund its recommendations. Roughly half this cost would come from the public sector, while the private sector would provide the remaining half. This was not "new money," he stressed, noting that all government projects "will become National Agenda projects." While an expected increase in revenues would help fully finance outlays by 2011, the GOJ expected a total "funding gap" of roughly JD 828 million from 2007 through 2010. Muasher appealed to donors to help cover this gap as a relatively short-term investment with important long-term benefits. -------------- A DUBIOUS STREET -------------- ¶7. (C) The limited press coverage to date on the National Agenda has either been very general, or focused on narrow issues - particularly the debate over electoral and media reforms. Most ordinary Jordanians have yet to form opinions on the Agenda. For example, two private company managers, well versed on business matters and current affairs, told poloff they had heard very little about the Agenda. A young architect said he had heard several rumors about the National Agenda, but didn't know who was drafting it or when, if ever, it would be released. Those who did have an opinion were, for the most part, critical in their remarks. Several store clerks and taxi drivers told poloffs that the Agenda was nothing but "government hype" and that they expected it to "go nowhere." A private school teacher said she did not give the Agenda any credence as the commission "never asked me or the public about our opinions." ¶8. (C) Not all comments have been negative. A few non-elite Jordanians we talked to expressed guarded optimism about the Agenda from what they had heard and read. One accountant gave quite a good summary of the Agenda's purpose and said he believed it would achieve "a large part of its goals." ¶9. (C) Conversations with ordinary Jordanians on the topic of reform in general, rather than the National Agenda, reflect two chief themes -- skepticism of the government's commitment to change, and a focus on immediate pocketbook issues. One young computer entrepreneur, for instance, said that he and his friends don't believe the government is serious about reform. If the GOJ wants public support for reform programs, including the National Agenda, he stressed that it must educate people about what it is trying to do and, more importantly, show how the reforms will benefit them. A single, unemployed female said that "common Jordanians don't care about reform - what is on their minds is economic survival." She continued that the public is not interested in the long-term impact of reform, and that people will only believe in and support reform if the government shows that it will improve their daily lives. -------------- SALESPERSONS WANTED -------------- ¶10. (C) Given public skepticism over reform, the GOJ faces an uphill battle in generating strong public backing for the National Agenda. Muasher's staff has said on several occasions that they understand the need for an aggressive marketing campaign and would organize a series of "roadshows" and town hall meetings (refs C, E) to promote the Agenda. Yet little planning has been done on this front to date. After Muasher's donor briefing, POLOFF asked two members of his senior staff for an update on the Agenda's marketing strategy, including the content of the proposed roadshows and the personalities involved in drumming up public support. Neither had any substantive reply. ¶11. (C) To help rectify this lack of planning, post understands that the GOJ is dipping into the USAID-funded World Bank Trust Fund, established to support public sector reform, to finance a public relations campaign - to be implemented by Jordan's Executive Privatization Committee (EPC) - for the Agenda. The EPC has accordingly issued a public request for proposals to design a public outreach program. Up to USD 120,000 may be used for TV, radio and print advertising, as well as costs for public dissemination of the National Agenda reports. This use of U.S. funding to help "sell" the Agenda, however, has already engendered additional negative press commentary from skeptics. HALE