Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05AMMAN842
2005-02-02 15:24:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Amman
Cable title:
PRIVATE REACTIONS TO IRAQI ELECTIONS
how-toThis record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000842
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2015
TAGS: PREL KDEM IZ JO
SUBJECT: PRIVATE REACTIONS TO IRAQI ELECTIONS
REF: A. AMMAN 785
B. AMMAN 772
C. AMMAN 723
D. AMMAN 713
Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
------
SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000842
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2015
TAGS: PREL KDEM IZ JO
SUBJECT: PRIVATE REACTIONS TO IRAQI ELECTIONS
REF: A. AMMAN 785
B. AMMAN 772
C. AMMAN 723
D. AMMAN 713
Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) Reactions of post contacts to the elections in Iraq
ranged from dismissive to strongly positive, with most
expressing cautious optimism. Jordanians and Sunni Iraqis
were predictably very concerned with the role of Sunnis in
the new government. One Iraqi election candidate, currently
in Amman, claims to have seen final out-of-country voting
(OCV) results for Jordan that gave strong support for the
SISTANI-endorsed list of candidates. End Summary.
--------------
IRAQI BUSINESSMEN "PROUD" OF ELECTIONS
--------------
2. (C) In the aftermath of the January 30 elections in Iraq,
emboffs have contacted several Iraqis who either reside in or
frequently travel to Jordan. Representatives of the
well-established Iraqi business community in Amman were
almost uniformly upbeat. Several said they were "very proud"
that the elections appeared fair, clean and well-organized,
with one contact comparing the voting to a "national
wedding." Others were more cautious in their praise, stating
that the elections were a "good first step" toward a better
future.
3. (C) Tribal leader Shiekh Tariq al-Abdalah from Anbar
province, who regularly shuttles between Amman and Dubai,
told econoff that the elections were "very positive." He
said that Sunni leaders who weren't able to come forward
before are now "eager to talk" in hopes of finding a unifying
path to the future. He claimed to be in close contact with
other Anbar figures who are working on a strategy to
re-integrate Sunnis into the political process. Abdalah was
very disturbed, however, by rumors from Baghdad that Sunnis
who did not participate in the elections would be shut out of
government and the constitution-drafting process, saying such
a move would be "very dangerous."
--------------
JORDANIANS STRESS SUNNI ROLE
--------------
4. (C) Jordanian contacts similarly had positive words for
election logistics, but were often quick to point out low
Sunni participation. Outspoken MP Dr. Abdur Rahim Malhas
(East Banker, Amman) said the elections were organized well,
but added they "did not reflect a real and full
representation of the Iraqi people." Civil society leader
Jamal Rifai likewise said that while the elections were
"carried out successfully," they were nevertheless flawed as
"a high percentage of the Iraqi people did not cast ballots."
Rifai stressed that stability in Iraq could not be achieved
without "real participation from Sunnis." Political analyst
Oraib Rantawi commented that the elections "might be a huge
step in the right direction" and that they showed that there
was "a light at the end of the tunnel" to the current
violence in Iraq. However, he said that no true solution
would be achieved until the new government actively included
those who boycotted the elections.
--------------
A SISTANI VICTORY IN JORDAN?
--------------
5. (C) Malik al-Ghaffour, an Iraqi independent candidate in
the elections currently in Amman, claimed to econoff February
2 that he had seen the final OCV results for Jordan.
According to Ghaffour, 26 parties and independents received
most of the 20,000 plus votes cast in Jordan, with the
Sistanti-backed list of candidates receiving the highest
total followed by Allawi's party with "significantly fewer"
votes. The Chaldean and the Monarchist lists, Ghaffour said,
each received about 500 votes, with the rest of the electoral
field garnering fewer than 100 ballots each. Ghaffour (a
secular Shia) fumed that the local "fanatics" had turned out
in force for the SISTANI list while he had only won about 45
votes in Jordan despite spending $200,000 of his own money on
his campaign.
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
6. (C) OCV ballot counts for Jordan and other countries will
not be disclosed for several days and post cannot assess the
reliability of Ghaffour's claims. While King Abdullah has
been strongly supportive of the Iraqi elections (ref a),many
Jordanians are nervous over the prospect of a Shia-dominated
Iraq.
MINIMIZE CONSIDERED
HALE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2015
TAGS: PREL KDEM IZ JO
SUBJECT: PRIVATE REACTIONS TO IRAQI ELECTIONS
REF: A. AMMAN 785
B. AMMAN 772
C. AMMAN 723
D. AMMAN 713
Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) Reactions of post contacts to the elections in Iraq
ranged from dismissive to strongly positive, with most
expressing cautious optimism. Jordanians and Sunni Iraqis
were predictably very concerned with the role of Sunnis in
the new government. One Iraqi election candidate, currently
in Amman, claims to have seen final out-of-country voting
(OCV) results for Jordan that gave strong support for the
SISTANI-endorsed list of candidates. End Summary.
--------------
IRAQI BUSINESSMEN "PROUD" OF ELECTIONS
--------------
2. (C) In the aftermath of the January 30 elections in Iraq,
emboffs have contacted several Iraqis who either reside in or
frequently travel to Jordan. Representatives of the
well-established Iraqi business community in Amman were
almost uniformly upbeat. Several said they were "very proud"
that the elections appeared fair, clean and well-organized,
with one contact comparing the voting to a "national
wedding." Others were more cautious in their praise, stating
that the elections were a "good first step" toward a better
future.
3. (C) Tribal leader Shiekh Tariq al-Abdalah from Anbar
province, who regularly shuttles between Amman and Dubai,
told econoff that the elections were "very positive." He
said that Sunni leaders who weren't able to come forward
before are now "eager to talk" in hopes of finding a unifying
path to the future. He claimed to be in close contact with
other Anbar figures who are working on a strategy to
re-integrate Sunnis into the political process. Abdalah was
very disturbed, however, by rumors from Baghdad that Sunnis
who did not participate in the elections would be shut out of
government and the constitution-drafting process, saying such
a move would be "very dangerous."
--------------
JORDANIANS STRESS SUNNI ROLE
--------------
4. (C) Jordanian contacts similarly had positive words for
election logistics, but were often quick to point out low
Sunni participation. Outspoken MP Dr. Abdur Rahim Malhas
(East Banker, Amman) said the elections were organized well,
but added they "did not reflect a real and full
representation of the Iraqi people." Civil society leader
Jamal Rifai likewise said that while the elections were
"carried out successfully," they were nevertheless flawed as
"a high percentage of the Iraqi people did not cast ballots."
Rifai stressed that stability in Iraq could not be achieved
without "real participation from Sunnis." Political analyst
Oraib Rantawi commented that the elections "might be a huge
step in the right direction" and that they showed that there
was "a light at the end of the tunnel" to the current
violence in Iraq. However, he said that no true solution
would be achieved until the new government actively included
those who boycotted the elections.
--------------
A SISTANI VICTORY IN JORDAN?
--------------
5. (C) Malik al-Ghaffour, an Iraqi independent candidate in
the elections currently in Amman, claimed to econoff February
2 that he had seen the final OCV results for Jordan.
According to Ghaffour, 26 parties and independents received
most of the 20,000 plus votes cast in Jordan, with the
Sistanti-backed list of candidates receiving the highest
total followed by Allawi's party with "significantly fewer"
votes. The Chaldean and the Monarchist lists, Ghaffour said,
each received about 500 votes, with the rest of the electoral
field garnering fewer than 100 ballots each. Ghaffour (a
secular Shia) fumed that the local "fanatics" had turned out
in force for the SISTANI list while he had only won about 45
votes in Jordan despite spending $200,000 of his own money on
his campaign.
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
6. (C) OCV ballot counts for Jordan and other countries will
not be disclosed for several days and post cannot assess the
reliability of Ghaffour's claims. While King Abdullah has
been strongly supportive of the Iraqi elections (ref a),many
Jordanians are nervous over the prospect of a Shia-dominated
Iraq.
MINIMIZE CONSIDERED
HALE