IRAQ ELECTION UPDATE: JORDAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000672 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2015 TAGS: ASEC KDEM PGOV PREL IZ JO SUBJECT: IRAQ ELECTION UPDATE: JORDAN REF: A. AMMAN 586 ¶B. AMMAN 468 ¶C. AMMAN 342 ¶D. AMMAN 293 Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Out-of-country (OCV) registration concluded January 25 with 20,166 Iraqis signing up to vote in Jordan. Turnout, though very light, gradually increased during the registration period from a low of 710 on the first day, to a peak of 3679 on January 23. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported no major problems affecting registration and it anticipates procedurally smooth elections. The head of the International Mission for the Iraq Elections (IMIE) office in Jordan confirmed that the IMIE Steering Committee will meet in Amman beginning on or about January 28 to discuss the elections and future plans for the organization. With no election monitors of its own and only one consultant on the ground in Iraq, the IMIE will have to rely heavily on information from others and work to keep expectations for its mission "modest." Limited political campaigning in Jordan has included large newspaper ads placed by IIG PM Allawi's Iraqi List coalition party. End Summary. -------------- REGISTRATION FALLS SHORT OF THE MARK -------------- ¶2. (SBU) OCV registration for Iraqis in Jordan, as well as in other participating countries, came to an end on January 25 after a two-day extension. According to IOM figures, 20,166 Iraqis registered to vote in Jordan, with 280,303 registering worldwide. Turnout for the registration in Jordan, compared to estimates of up to 200,000 eligible Iraqi voters present here, remained low throughout the 9-day registration period for a number of reasons (refs C and D). However, according to contacts, positive word of mouth and stepped up advertising and outreach efforts helped to gradually increase the number of registrants from a low of 710 on the first day (January 17) to a high of 3679 on the seventh day (January 23). ¶3. (SBU) The IOM office in Amman overseeing the OCV program reported no major problems with registration in Jordan or elsewhere. It anticipates that the voting process on January 28-30 should likewise proceed smoothly. Given the relatively low number of registrants, the IOM expects that the voting centers and their staff in Jordan should easily be able to accommodate all registered Iraqis who come to cast a ballot. EmbOffs will monitor several centers during the elections and report septel. -------------- MANAGING EXPECTATIONS FOR THE IMIE -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Grant Kippen, head of the IMIE office in Jordan, told PolOff on January 26 that he was expecting 10 or more members of the IMIE Steering Committee to arrive in Amman shortly for a series of meetings beginning on or about January 28 until January 31. Kippen said that the meetings would focus on the "status and development of election assessment reports," as well as the IMIE's future activities prior to the constitutional referendum in Iraq on October 30. Despite initial hopes that it would be able to place several experienced international election consultants in Iraq (ref D),Kippen said the IMIE had succeeded in hiring and sending only one such consultant - Nora Kankashian - to Baghdad. According to Kippen, Kankashian has been very active in Iraq meeting with all major stakeholder groups. ¶5. (C) Kippen confirmed that the IMIE would not hire or deploy any of its own election monitors. Consequently, in developing its "assessment framework," it would have to rely heavily on monitoring and reports by domestic Iraqi organizations, political parties, diplomatic missions, and other election observers. Kippen acknowledged that the scope of the IMIE's proposed activities had been cut back for security and other reasons, and said that the IMIE would have to be careful to "maintain modest expectations" concerning its mandate. -------------- CAMPAIGNING IN JORDAN -------------- ¶6. (U) Limited political campaigning for the Iraqi elections has taken place in Jordan. Several (mainly independent) candidates have been in Amman recently to promote themselves, while IIG PM Allawi's Iraqi List coalition party took out splashy, full-page advertisements in Jordanian newspapers. These ads, however, urged Iraqis to vote for the Iraqi List without providing any information on the party's program or candidates. MINIMIZE CONSIDERED HALE