OPPOSITION TO NEW CABINET IN PARLIAMENT REMAINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 003551 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2015 TAGS: PGOV KDEM MARR EFIN PTER JO SUBJECT: OPPOSITION TO NEW CABINET IN PARLIAMENT REMAINS FIRM REF: A. AMMAN 03252 ¶B. AMMAN 2973 ¶C. AMMAN 2969 Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Opposition to King Abdullah's new reform cabinet continues to grow. Rumor mongers point to the cabinet's many reformist ministers and conclude the U.S. must have pressured the King to appoint them. PM Badran is proceeding with his public and private outreach efforts to shore up support for his cabinet. Generally positive meetings with political party leaders and the Jordan Bar Association were followed by a much more contentious meeting with 45 traditionalist MPs who remained firm in their demand that Badran get rid of his economic team (headed by Finance Minister Bassam Awadallah). Lower House Speaker Abdul Hadi Majali predicted a very rough road ahead for the Badran cabinet, which could slow down legislation of interest to us, including ratification of the article 98 agreement and the improved anti-money laundering law. End Summary. -------------- PM SEEKS OUT ALLIES -------------- ¶2. (U) In an effort to drum up support for his beleaguered cabinet, PM Badran has continued his campaign of meetings with prominent Jordanians (ref A). On April 27, for example, he met with another group of political party leaders, saying that parties were the "cornerstone" of the country's political development process. He further pledged to reconsider the poorly-received draft law on political parties submitted by the previous government. The following day, Badran met with Jordan Bar Association president Saleh Armouti and members of the association's Islamist-dominated board of directors. Armouti described the meeting to reporters as "positive and warm," and expressed appreciation for the new government's efforts to enhance cooperation with civil society institutions. According to the press, Badran reiterated in the meeting that his cabinet was committed to implementing political reform and was open to revising a controversial bill that would alter regulation of professional associations (a parliamentary committee is reviewing it at present). On April 31, Badran told a gathering of journalists that he was prepared to reshuffle his cabinet if necessary to include ministers from the south of the country. While maintaining that geographic representation was not a constitutional requirement, he nonetheless recognized it as a "political norm" that he was unable to adhere to when forming the government due to "time limitations." -------------- MPs STAND FIRM -------------- ¶3. (C) Badran's greatest challenge remains winning over the growing number of traditionalist MPs (numbering 45 of the lower chamber's 110 deputies) who have publicly pledged to withhold their votes of confidence in the new government. In a May 3 meeting with these MPs that was described as "hot and stormy," MP contacts report that Badran did his best to take a conciliatory position. He assured the MPs that he had taken note of their concerns, promised to try to resolve their complaints, and asked that they evaluate his government based on its programs and plans, rather than on its composition. The MPs were not appeased. One after another, they demanded that Badran either resign as PM or reshuffle the cabinet to sack its economic team, led by Finance Minister Bassam Awadallah, on the grounds that these ministers were "proven failures" and hopelessly out of touch with the plight of "real Jordanians." MP Bassam Haddadin (Christian East Banker, Zarqa) also took a swipe at Badran's reformist credentials, complaining that Badran had not expressed any ideas on political reform, but was instead "hiding" behind ideas to come from a "velvet committee" (i.e., the National Agenda commission). -------------- THE SPEAKER SPEAKS -------------- ¶4. (C) In a private discussion on May 1 with Charge, Lower House Speaker Abdul Hadi al-Majali (East Banker, Kerak) ticked off the motives for the strong opposition to the cabinet. First, it had gone against deeply ingrained tradition by omitting a minister from Kerak, a "pillar" of the country (along with Salt and Irbid). The fact that it did not include anyone from the rural Badia only made matters worse. Second, Badran's appointment from seemingly out of nowhere was a surprise that made advance consultation with MPs (which did not happen) even more imperative. Third, MPs loathed Bassem Awadallah for his perceived disdain of legislative oversight; they saw his appointment as a slap in the face of parliament as an institution. Salah Bashir (former Justice Minister and now Minister for Government Performance) was also a lightning rod for criticism because of his alleged disrespectful behavior toward MPs. Fourth, widespread belief that the U.S. applied pressure on King Abdullah during his most recent trip to Washington to create the current reform government had aroused considerable resentment among MPs. ¶5. (C) Majali also criticized Badran for having no program or agenda, just headlines in the newspapers. He noted that the cabinet had promised to implement the National Agenda to be announced later this year, but asked "what is the government's platform in the meantime?" Majali recommended that the government hold off on a summer vote of confidence in parliament (which would require an extraordinary session) as long as possible, probably until July, so that it could address MPs' concerns. Majali told reporters on May 3 that it would be "difficult to control the Lower House" during an extraordinary session if the government tried to exclude a vote of confidence from the session agenda. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) PM Badran has little room to maneuver in the face of entrenched opposition by traditionalists to his cabinet. Appointing new ministers from the south might dispel some complaints, but it could be interpreted as a sign of weakness while failing to satisfy demands for Awadallah's ouster. Courting the support of the Islamists, including the Islamic Action Front (IAF),to circumvent the traditionalists remains an option, but carries associated political risks (ref A). Several of the best informed ministers, and targets of the MPs' ire, such as Bassam Awadallah and Marwan Muasher, see a simple solution: since they accuse outgoing GID chief Saad Khayr of whipping up the opposition, it is up to Khayr to turn it off again. No matter what course of action Badran takes, resentment against alleged U.S. meddling in the cabinet selection process could hinder quick action on our legislative priorities in parliament (e.g., passage of an anti-money laundering law and ratification of the article 98 agreement). ¶7. (U) Minimize considered. HALE