LIBERALS, TRADITIONALISTS BOTH EXPRESS THEIR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002969

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KMPI JO
SUBJECT: LIBERALS, TRADITIONALISTS BOTH EXPRESS THEIR
DOUBTS OVER NEW GOVERNMENT

REF: A. AMMAN 2890


B. AMMAN 2851

Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Both liberal activists and their traditionalist
opponents here voice reservations about the new Jordanian
cabinet. Liberals have hailed the strong rhetorical emphasis
on reform, but doubt the new government will be able to match
its words with action. At the same time, traditionalist East
Bankers have expressed strong reservations about
reform-minded ministers (particularly Bassem Awadallah) who
they claim are out of touch with "real" Jordanians.
Thirty-four MPs have pledged to withhold their votes of
confidence in the new government for PM Badran's failure to
consult with them and for excluding ministerial candidates
from the south. Some local press, for the first time, have
questioned the King's traditional prerogative of choosing new
cabinets behind closed doors, asking whether the time has
come for a more democratic process. End Summary.

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REFORM EMPHASIS WELCOMED
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2. (C) The new Jordanian cabinet has been at the center of
attention in the local media and West Amman salons since its
announcement on April 7. In reviewing the King's letter of
designation (ref B) and subsequent statements from the
palace, most Jordanians have agreed that the King's desire to
push forward the reform agenda was a primary factor in his
appointment of the new government. This emphasis on reform
has been welcomed by human rights and political activists
contacted by post. Several activists noted their respect for
new PM Adnan Badran as a distinguished academic and known
advocate of reform, and were hopeful that the carry-over of
reform-minded ministers from the last cabinet, such as Asma
Khader and Salah Al-Bashir, signified that the new government
would be more "serious" and unified in its commitment to
achieve real change.


3. (C) Most activists, however, sounded a strong note of
caution, stating that they had grown weary of past reform
promises that had "amounted to nothing." "We don't really
care who is prime minister or in the cabinet as long as they
can finally shake things up," said one contact, reflecting
the views of many. Some also cast doubt on the reform
credentials of certain ministers, including Deputy PM and
Minister for Political Development Hisham al-Tel who is
reported to have had a strong hand (as former head of the
prime ministry's legislative unit) in drafting the
poorly-received draft laws on political parties and
professional associations. (NOTE: In al-Tel's defense, we
note he was likely working under government orders. END
NOTE.) Most activists and political analysts we talked to
questioned whether Badran and his team had the political
skills and savvy to implement reform over the objections of
strong traditionalist forces.

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EAST BANKER CONCERN
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4. (C) Conservative East Bank tribal sheikhs and MPs
contacted by poloff also had their enthusiasm under control.
While making clear that they supported the King, they
nevertheless grumbled that the new cabinet was comprised of
too many technocrats who "do not understand real Jordanians."
The choice of Bassem Awadallah for Minister of Finance was a
particular sore point. All claimed to back reform in
general, but at the same time most advised that reform be
carried out "gradually" and in a way that did not "disrupt"
Jordanian society and culture.


5. (SBU) Hardcore East Bank nationalist Nahed Hatter
captured some concerns of the East Bank old-guard in a recent
commentary in Arabic-daily Al-Arab Al-Yawm. While professing
support for reform, Hatter expressed fear that the new
government might "limit" the reform process to increasing the
representation of "refugees" (i.e., Jordanians of Palestinian
origin),minority groups and women, and to "surrendering" the
Jordanian economy to "foreign interests" at the expense of
Jordanian citizens.

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STRONG WORDS FROM PARLIAMENT
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6. (U) On April 10, a group of 34 of the 110 members of the
Lower House of parliament signed a public statement
complaining that the legislature was not consulted during the
formation of the new government, and promising to withhold
their votes of confidence in the next parliamentary session.
In the strongly worded letter, the MPs described the
composition of the new government as an "affront to the
deputies, their will and their feelings, as it comprises
ministers who created tension between the Parliament and the
former government." (NOTE: MP Jalil Maaytah (East Banker,
Kerak) publicly named Bassem Awadallah and Salah Bashir as
the ministers in question. END NOTE.) The MPs, who mainly
hail from the southern governorates, also said that the
cabinet contradicted what they called "royal directives" to
represent all areas of Jordan in that it excluded ministerial
candidates from the south. The statement continued to blast
the new economic team, charging that these ministers "have no
interaction or contact with the concerns of the Jordanian
people, in addition to the reality of those people."


7. (C) Outside of the disgruntled MPs from the south, other
legislators privately voiced frustration that they were once
again ignored by the palace in the selection of cabinet
ministers. Several had hoped, if not expected, that the new
government would include at least one MP, even if only as a
symbolic nod to the importance of Parliament in advancing
reform. Dr. Ibrahim Badran, head of the International
Relations department at Philadelphia University (and no
relation to the new PM),told poloff that he and many of his
colleagues admired the U.S. system of individually confirming
cabinet secretaries as this gave legitimacy to the selection
process and instilled in the legislative branch a sense of
responsibility and inclusion. He said this was sorely
lacking in the Jordanian system.

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A QUESTIONING PRESS
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8. (C) In comparison to the reception given to previous new
cabinets (including accolades for the "reformist" October
2003 cabinet of ex-PM Fayez),the tone of the local media has
been noticeably more critical of the incoming ministerial
line-up. While part of this is due to the presence of
several controversial personalities in the new cabinet, the
press appears more willing than ever to question the very
process by which the King dissolves and forms governments at
will, and behind closed doors. Liberal editorialist (and
Christian East Banker) Jamil Nimri wrote in Al-Arab Al-Yawm,
for example, that the traditional method of choosing
governments in Jordan was "no longer convincing or
acceptable." He observed a "growing gap" between democratic
reform and the "autocratic content" of Jordanian governments.
Reflecting the private views held by several of our
reformist contacts, he wrote: "The formation of the
government here does not belong to the era of democracy,
which means elected governments. The people choose their
deputies and the deputies choose their governments."

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Initial reaction to PM Badran and his team indicates
that the new government will not have much of a honeymoon
period. With liberals impatiently demanding change and
traditionalists afraid of losing political leverage, the
cabinet will have to walk a careful line. Relations with a
testy parliament will require particular attention so as to
avoid derailment of the new cabinet's legislative agenda.


10. (U) Minimize considered.
HALE