AMMAN-BASED IRAQI SUNNIS WORKING ON A NEW IRAQ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002796 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ JO SUBJECT: AMMAN-BASED IRAQI SUNNIS WORKING ON A NEW IRAQ POLITICAL MOVEMENT REF: A. AMMAN 9672 ¶B. 2/25/05 MCCRENSKY-FORD E-MAIL (NOTAL) Classified By: Charge d'Affaires David Hale for reason 1.4 (b) and (d) Amman-based Efforts at Sunni Political Participation -------------- -------------- ¶1. (C) Despite a series of false steps beginning in 2004, Jordan-based Iraqi billionaire Talal al-Gaaod and his family and associates are continuing to work on schemes for promoting an end to the Sunni insurgency and organizing future large-scale Sunni Arab political participation in Iraq. Talal was a central figure behind the effort to hold a Sunni Arab conference in Amman in mid-November (cancelled due to the Fallujah attack and the related State of Emergency). Since November, the al-Gaoods, in tandem with other prominent Anbar-origin figures such as Sheik Tariq al-Abdullah and Dr. Jaber Awad, have established intermittent political contact with Prime Minister Allawi and DPM Barham Saleh. Working on a Massive Sunni Conference... -------------- ¶2. (C) Since early February 2005 Talal has been working closely with Shammar tribal leader Sheikh Dari Ma,ashan al Fassal al Jarba from Mosul and other Sunni notables to hold a massive conference of up to 1,000 prominent Iraqi Sunni Arabs in Amman as a means for establishing a mandate for re-injecting Sunnis into the Iraq political process and defanging the insurgency (ref b). After weekly reports to emboff of lengthy meetings and predictions that plans the conference would soon be finalized, Talal told emboff on March 29 that he and his allies are inclined to put aside for now their efforts to put together a large conference. Talal explained that he and his associates have been meeting for weeks among themselves and visiting Iraqis, including Hatem and Ra'ad al-Mukhlis, representatives of the Islamic scholars group, ex-Ba'athis, and a large number "local notables" from around Iraq. These efforts to put a conference together have failed because there was no consensus on the goals of a conferene. Talal admitted that they cannot even agree decisively on the structure of the conference and the makeup of the organizing committee. ...But Getting Nowhere -------------- ¶3. (C) Talal said that he has come to the realization that a massive political conference may be unworkable and in any event may no longer be the best way to achieve what he and his allies want to accomplish. While the original purpose of the conference was to elicit a green light for injection of Sunni Arabs into the constitution drafting-process and the December 2005 elections, in early March several of the organizers (including himself) reconceived it as a launching pad for a mass-based Sunni political party, complete with a manifesto, an organizational political structure down to the precinct level, and 15-20 committees responsible for establishing policies on issues ranging from federalism and the role of religion to youth, sports, and the status of tribal leaders. However, Talal confessed that since this refocus the organizational process has become even more difficult, as factions among the potential participants compete for advantage. Crawling Towards a New Paradigm -------------- ¶4. (C) Meanwhile, Talal commented, "the (political) train is leaving the station." Other Sunni groups inside Iraq are already holding or announcing their own conferences, and others inside Iraq appear already to have achieved de facto acceptance of Sunni political participation by many insurgent elements (Talal's original objective). Given these developments, Talal told us his next project will be to explore formation sometime next month of a Sunni coalition including currently active Sunni figures (Yawwar, Pachachi, Sharif Ali, Hatem al-Mukhlis, etc),moderate tribal, clerical, and business figures in touch with the al Gaaods and Sheikh Dari, and their friends. Talal indicated that he is in touch with PM Allawi (directly and through Allawi associate Akram Abdel Sattar Zangenah) who (Talal said) has expressed interest in signing a so-called "Iraqi Nation" MOU noting common principles and promising to cooperate in achieving them. Instead of his earlier plan for a 1000-person meeting, Talal is now thinking of a meeting of no more than 25 key Sunni Arabs, including those mentioned above. Such a meeting would probably be held inside Iraq. ¶5. (C) Talal noted that one complication he faces in putting this plan together is the long-standing bad personal relationship between Sheikh Dari and his cousin Yawwar. Talal said he will lobby Dari to support the plan. The latest development in this ongoing saga was a March 31 request to Talal from PM Allawi to "stand by" for a one-on-one meeting in Amman that never took place due to Talal,s departure for a five-day visit to the U.S. Talal stressed that Allawi's request for a meeting was initiated by Allawi. Talal told emboff before departing for the U.S. on April 1 that he will probably see Allawi shortly after his return to Jordan on April 6. ¶6. (C) Embassy Baghdad Comment: Talal is a respected and dynamic individual, committed to Sunni participation in the political process, who has the potential to be at the core of a secular Sunni political movement. Like many Sunni Arabs in Iraq, however, he is used to a hierarchical, one-party system. It is only natural that his initial, unsuccessful forays into the political arena took the form of comprehensive conferences involving all Sunnis. Iraq,s Shia, Kurds, Turkmen and Christians, in contrast, have for decades had a small number of competing opposition parties with distinct identities inside their communities and clear ideological differences. To form over-arching coalitions within their communities, they need only bring on board 3-5 key party leaders, not hundreds or thousands of individuals. Talal,s new, slimmed-down approach is more practical, and he is clearly learning that in a free political system, it is not possible to get everyone to join a single party - not even everyone with the same ethnic/religious background. Hopefully, he will follow through to build a coalition with those who are willing to join up, rather than worry about those who do not. HALE