AMMAN BUZZES WITH RUMORS OF IMPENDING GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002694 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL JO SUBJECT: AMMAN BUZZES WITH RUMORS OF IMPENDING GOVERNMENT CHANGE REF: A. AMMAN 2557 (NOTAL) ¶B. AMMAN 2382 ¶C. AMMAN 2297 ¶D. AMMAN 2044 ¶E. AMMAN 0585 Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) There is widespread public speculation that King Abdullah plans to overhaul his cabinet. The recent crisis in Jordanian-Iraqi relations and missteps at the Arab League Summit in Algiers have fueled rumors that the King is ready to dismiss PM al-Fayez and FM al-Mulki. End Summary. -------------- ON THE WAY OUT? -------------- ¶2. (C) Rumors of an impending change in government have been the center of discussion in West Amman salons in recent days, as well as the subject of local press articles. While the Jordanian elite has been trading gossip for months about royal dissatisfaction with current PM Faisal al-Fayez and his inability to control his ministers (ref E),speculation on a cabinet change has redoubled following perceived GOJ missteps in the handling of the row with Iraq and the "revitalization" of an Arab League peace initiative. Several contacts have roundly criticized the government for letting a press story on terrorist Raed Al-Banna escalate tensions to the point where both Jordan and Iraq recalled their diplomatic envoys (refs B and C). In the view of many Jordanians, the fact that King Abdullah had to personally intervene from the U.S. and order the return of the Jordanian Charge to Baghdad was an embarrassment to Fayez (and FM Hani al-Mulki) and a sign that his days as PM are numbered. ¶3. (C) Tongues have also been wagging over the prospects of FM Mulki. His attempt to relaunch the Arab League's peace initiative (adopted in Beirut in 2002) at the recently-concluded AL summit in Algiers became the subject of considerable controversy and confusion. Asked about Saudi anger at alleged Jordanian modifications to the Beirut statement, King Abdullah told London-based Arabic daily Al Hayat that there had been a "misunderstanding" because Mulki "did not clearly express himself to his Saudi counterpart." The King's statement has been widely interpreted as evidence that Mulki is skating on thin ice -- or in fact, has crashed through it. King Abdullah has carefully nurtured Saudi relations during his reign and is seeking oil assistance from Riyadh, making Mulki's fumble all the more damaging to the King personally. An emergency cabinet meeting on March 28 added fuel to the Mulki gossip mill. Journalists reported rumors that the meeting discussed Mulki's tendered resignation, and/or was a last-ditch attempt to get the GOJ to put its affairs in orders, to the extent that the government spokesperson was compelled to deny he had resigned. -------------- WHO'S IN? -------------- ¶4. (C) Speculation about a new PM to replace Fayez has (wrongly) centered on Saad Khair (Director of the General Intelligence Directorate). Press articles and dinner party conversations would have Khair as the clear front-runner among several contenders. Arabic weekly Al Majd, for example, reported that according to "informed sources," the King will likely assign Khair to form a new cabinet. Political and human rights activists have expressed strong reservations about Khair as PM. They contend that installing the current chief of intelligence as head of the government would send the wrong signal on democratic reform. (COMMENT: Charge is confident Khair will not be chosen, see ref A. END COMMENT.) ¶5. (C) Meanwhile, government business is proceeding as usual, including the current push for greater public transparency. The Central Bank confirmed to Arabic daily Al-Ghad on March 29 that it had rejected a proposal from former PM Ali Abul al-Ragheb to establish a new bank (ref D) despite rumors that back-room maneuvering had closed the deal. Ragheb told reporters that he had not yet received any formal document from the Central Bank and that a negative decision would "violate" his understanding with Bank officials. HALE