UNRWA'S PROJECTED OUT-YEAR BUDGET REQUIREMENTS

UNCLAS AMMAN 002130 SIPDIS SENSITIVE FOR PRM E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREF JO UNRWA SUBJECT: UNRWA'S PROJECTED OUT-YEAR BUDGET REQUIREMENTS REF: STATE 35223 ¶1. (SBU) UNRWA has provided the following budget projection in response to ref A request for estimated 2006-2007 funding requirements: UNRWA 2006-2007 ESTIMATED BIENNIUM BUDGET (IN MILLIONS USD) =========================================== 2006 2007 Regular Budget 390.0 406.8 (General Fund) Medium Term Plan 55.2 51.5 (Recurrent Costs) Medium Term Plan 183.0 170.2 (Project Costs) Emergency Appeals 200.0 200.0 GRAND TOTAL 828.2 828.5 UNRWA NOTATION: Emergency Appeal requirements could be reduced to USD 100 million per year if the situation is normalized. The USD 100 million will be needed to cater to the residual effects of the intifada (i.e., housing and the gradual phase-out of food and employment programs.) END UNRWA NOTATION. ASSESSMENT -------------- ¶2. (SBU) We expect UNRWA to refine its Medium Term Plan (MTP) requirements significantly between now and August, when the agency submits its "blue book" to New York for approval. According to UNRWA Comptroller Ramadan Alomari, UNRWA is just starting to develop criteria to prioritize (and cost) the new programs and capital investments called for in the five-year development plan. (Alomari conceded that the overall price tag of USD 1.1 billion that UNRWA attached to the MTP at its February 28 launch was "highly provisional.") Because hiring additional teachers and doctors is "already emerging as a clear MTP program priority," Alomari was confident the agency's projected 2006-2007 MTP recurrent budget requirements are on target. However, he predicted that UNRWA would lower its projected 2006-2007 MTP capital (project budget) requirements by as much as USD 100 million per year, explaining that the agency is debating paring down its list of unfunded MTP projects to a smaller list of projects "that total between USD 50-75 million annually" to focus donors on high priority needs. (NOTE: UNRWA has not shared its MTP implementation plan. We hope it will outline its top priorities at a briefing the agency is preparing to give on its draft 2006-2007 budget narrative scheduled in Amman March ¶17. END NOTE.) HENZEL