KAZAKHSTANI ANALYSTS UNCONCERNED ABOUT RUSSIA-

UNCLAS ALMATY 004412 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR EUR/CACEN (JMUDGE),EUR/PPD (JBASEDOW),EUR/ACE (ESMITH/JMCKANE),DRL/PHD (CKUCHTA-HELBLING) E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KPAO KDEM KZ POLITICAL SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTANI ANALYSTS UNCONCERNED ABOUT RUSSIA- UZBEKISTAN MILITARY PACT Ref: Almaty 3284 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: At a recent roundtable to discuss the November 14 military pact between Russia and Uzbekistan, a group of political analysts and academics considered the pact both a hedge against U.S. influence in Central Asia, as well as a signal from Russia that it still has influence in the area. One analyst said the agreement showed that cooperation between countries of Central Asia and Russia was now possible only on separate bilateral bases. Analysts also discussed multilateral regional cooperation, and said that the Commonwealth of Independent States has no future, because of separate interests being pursued by authoritarian rulers in their individual countries. Newspaper commentary highlighted the economic benefits that Uzbekistan might gain from a closer relationship with Russia, without having to make concessions on democratic reform. END SUMMARY. Pact as Russian Intimidation Tactic or... -------------- ¶2. (SBU) At an embassy-hosted roundtable November 23, a group of seven prominent political scientists and academics discussed the significance of the November 14 military pact signed between Russia and Uzbekistan allowing each country the use of military installations on the other's territory. Nurbulat Masanov, a professor of ethnography and the newly appointed director of the Nomad Institute (see reftel), said Russia is now isolated in the world community, after the change in relations with formerly close ally Ukraine following Viktor Yushenko's election last December. He said Kazakhstan was Russia's only real partner in the former Soviet space and that the pact with Uzbekistan was a means of "blackmailing" Kazakhstan, i.e., demonstrating that Russia still could leverage its power in the region. ...Pact as Bulwark Against U.S. Pressure for Reform -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Other participants agreed with Sergey Duvanov, independent journalist and director of the Polyton Discussion Club, who said the pact was more likely a show of solidarity between authoritarian leaders against U.S. policies promoting democratic reform. Duvanov noted in particular the mutual support Putin and Nazarbayev provided each other against pressure from the U.S. for democratic reform. He also said the intimidation tactics employed by pro-presidential forces during Kazakhstan's presidential campaign indicated that Astana would likely maintain a close partnership with Russia. Dosym Satpayev, director of the NGO Risk Assessment Group, supported this view and said that in the 1990s, Russia lost reliable and predictable partners in the post-Soviet area and only Kazakhstan now is still relatively loyal to Russia. He also said Kazakhstan is the only country in post-Soviet area that does not have anti-Russian attitudes among the elite and opposition. Masanov added that if outside pressure for reform weakened, then the two leaders' alliance would crumble, because their stance against democratic reform is all they have in common. ¶4. (SBU) Regarding the effect the military pact might have on Russia, Sanat Kushkumbayev, a political scientist with the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, said Russian political analysts had told him they were not happy about the high price Russia would have to pay in terms of respect and prestige in the world community for close cooperation with the Karimov regime, which had been effectively ostracized by the European Union. For that reason he believes Russian defense minister Sergey Ivanov was sincere when he declared Russia had no intentions of placing a military base at Karshi Khanabad in the near future. Another Uprising in Uzbekistan Possible -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Although participants had various opinions about the motivations in pursuing the Russia-Uzbekistan pact, there was a consensus that without any relief in Uzbekistan's crushing poverty and oppression from the Karimov regime, another popular uprising like that in Andijan in May was inevitable. Duvanov said such a spontaneous explosion of outrage might cause Uzbekistan to fracture along ethnic lines, because the country is now held together only by Karimov's authoritarian hand. He said Kazakhstan would feel the impact from an influx of desperate people seeking jobs and survival in Kazakhstan. Masanov said during the Soviet era, diverse ethnic groups like Tajiks, Kazakhs, Uighurs, and Uzbeks living in the territory of Uzbekistan were forced to identify themselves as Uzbeks, but since Uzbekistan's independence the groups have been reasserting their individual ethnic identities. No Chance for Closer Central Asian Integration -------------- - ¶6. (SBU) On the broader issue of cooperation between Central Asian countries, Masanov said the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) as a truly integrated entity had no future, first because there are common interests only between individual countries and Russia. The other obstacle to closer integration, Masanov said, was the "vertical of power" in the leadership of Central Asian states. He compared authoritarian regimes with inflexible and hidden agendas to icebergs separated by submerged bases. As for relations between Kazakhstan and Russia, Duvanov said Kazakhstan used the partnership with Russia as a counterbalance to its relations with the United States. Kushkumbayev said Kazakhstan's elite prevented fuller integration with Russia, because Kazakhstan is still reaping the benefits of its independence. In the hierarchy of Kazakhstan's preferred partners, Satpayev said Russia was number one, followed by the CIS organization, China and the United States. ¶7. (SBU) Participants expected the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to share the same fate as the CIS, and saw its sole purpose, in the words of Duvanov, as keeping the "hegemon" (U.S.) at bay. Satpayev said the SCO had no economic future because "you can't breed an elephant with a fly," referring to China's overwhelming economic strength compared to other SCO partners. He also said China was afraid to enter the Kazakhstani market because of the high rate of corruption in society. Media: Uzbekistan Has Foreign Policy (U.S.) Alternative -------------- -------------- ¶8. (U) Newspaper commentary highlighted the economic benefits that Uzbekistan might seek from a closer relationship with Russia. In a December 2 article for pro- government Liter, Satpayev speculated on Karimov's motives in seeking membership in the Eurasian Economic Community. "For Uzbekistan, participation in the Eurasian Economic Community is basically a grand political gesture, which should demonstrate to the West that Uzbekistan has a foreign policy alternative (to the U.S.). . . Islam Karimov is only trying to exploit investment opportunities of the Eurasian Economic Community to finance the ineffective Uzbek economy, while not granting any serious economic concessions." A similar view was expressed in a November 25 article in pro-government Delovaya Nedelya: "When the spontaneous riot headed by religious `ekstremists' struck Andijan, Tashkent used the pretext of an international plot to finally break the friendship with the cunning partner to be embraced by the powerful ally Putin, who does not tie his own geopolitical interests with ideas of spreading democracy and civil freedoms... The Uzbek people are hoping to gain from the Russians an enlivened economy, the restoration of enterprises begun in the early 90's, the creation of jobs, and of course free entrance (to Russia) to earn wages." ¶9. (SBU) Roundtable analysts expressed no particular concern about the military pact between their country's northern and southern neighbor, and Masanov and Duvanov went so far as to say Russia was isolated politically. Kushkumbayev said Russia was trying to wield influence over Central Asia, which Russia still considered its strategic "front line," while China considered Central Asia the "tyl," or rear guard. All had sincere sympathy for the Uzbek people and Duvanov voiced the hope that Nazarbayev would negotiate with Karimov to allow Uzbek nationals to legally work in Kazakhstan for the sake of the Uzbek families who needed the income. ORDWAY NNNN