KAZAKHSTAN AVIAN INFLUENZA UPDATE

UNCLAS ALMATY 002957 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN JMUDGE, OES/STC AND EUR/RUS NOLL ALSO FOR EB/TPP/ATP, EB/TPP/BTA AND INR/REA USDA FAS FOR ITP FOR MACKE/THOMAS, CMP/DLP WETZEL FAS PLEASE PASS TO APHIS AND FSIS HHS FOR WSTEIGER, PBUDASHEWITZ CDC FOR SBLOUNT, EMCCRAY BRUSSELS PLEASE PASS TO APHIS/FENANDEZ ANKARA FOR FAS ATTACHE HIGGISTON GENEVA FOR HEALTH ATTACHE TASHKENT FOR ESTH E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAGR TBIO ECON RS ETRD PGOV KZ POLITICAL SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN AVIAN INFLUENZA UPDATE REF: (A) ALMATY 2842 (B) ALMATY 2904 ¶1. Summary: Post has obtained confirmation that on August 12, Kazakhstani health authorities released diagnoses of H5N1 AI in birds from parts of North Kazakhstan and Akmolinskaya oblasts. The diagnoses were based on polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests developed with the assistance of U.S. experts (reftels). No/no further suspected cases of human exposure have been reported. The epidemiological situation appears to be stable, but it is possible that cases have been underreported in affected regions. The affected regions of Kazakhstan are all in close proximity to the affected regions of Russia. Additionally, some regions of Kazakhstan border on known sites of AI outbreaks in China. These regions have yet to report cases but may be considered to be at risk. End Summary. H5N1 Confirmed in NKO, Akmola -------------- ¶2. On August 12, the Agricultural Research Institute of the Ministry of Education and Science informed the Ministry of Health that H5N1 was detected in PCR tests of serum from wild and domesticated fowl taken from the Kyzylzharskiy region of North Kazakhstan oblast, as well as the villages of Ushsart in the Korgalzhino region of Akmolinskaya oblast and Akkul in the Alekseyevskiy region of Akmolinskaya oblast. These diagnoses are added to already-confirmed cases in Pavlodar (Irtyshskiy and Lebyazhinskiy regions) and East Kazakhstan (Borodulikhinskiy region) oblasts, and to recently-reported cases in Karaganda oblast. These tests were performed with the assistance of members of the U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit-3, who have since departed Kazakhstan. Authorities Describe Situation as Stable -------------- ¶3. Kazakhstani authorities are describing the epidemiological situation as stable, as no new cases of AI in birds were reported over the weekend (August 13-14). It is, however, possible that cases are being underreported in the affected locales now that quarantine measures are in 
place. No/no further suspected cases of human exposure have been reported. ¶4. However, Ministry of Agriculture authorities have publicly identified regions where preparations for potential AI outbreaks are insufficient. Aktyubinskaya, Zhambylskaya, West Kazakhstan and Kyzylordinskaya Oblasts were singled out as not having sufficient diagnostic reagents on hand. Aktyubinskaya, East Kazakhstan and West Kazakhstan oblasts were identified as lacking sufficient disinfectants to contain an outbreak. On August 12, the Agriculture Ministry also criticized Kostanay Oblast as deficient in its preparations because it had not approved a comprehensive plan for dealing with an outbreak. (Comment: A lack of preparation in Kostanay, if genuine, is cause for concern, as that oblast borders on already-affected North Kazakhstan, Akmolinskaya and Karaganda oblasts.) Correlation to Russian Outbreaks -------------- ¶5. According to a report prepared for the Kazakhstani authorities, the incidents of AI in Kazakhstan track closely in a geographic sense with those happening in the Russian Federation. Specifically, Kyzylzharskiy (North Kazakhstan) borders on Tyumenskaya oblast. Irtyshskiy (Pavlodar) borders on Omskaya oblast. Lebyazhinskiy (Pavlodar) and Borodulikhinskiy (East Kazakhstan) both border on the Altay Kray. ¶6. Akmolinskaya and Karaganda oblasts do not border the Russian Federation. In Akmolinskaya, the affected region of Korgalzhino includes Lake Tengiz, which is a major location along the migratory routes of wild birds. ¶7. Kazakhstani authorities are keeping a particularly close eye on areas of the North Kazakhstan, Pavlodar, and East Kazakhstan oblasts (all bordering Russia) that have not yet reported outbreaks, as well as on the Kuruchumskiy, Zaysanskiy and Urdzharskiy rayons of East Kazakhstan oblast. These three districts, which have not/not reported any cases of AI, border the Sinkiang-Uighur Autonomous Region of China, where post understands there has been an outbreak. Further Risks from Migratory Birds -------------- ¶8. In addition to the border locations identified as being at substantial immediate risk for AI, authorities are keeping a close watch on several interior regions thought to be at risk as fall approaches due to their location on the migratory paths of birds to and from India and Pakistan. These routes begin in parts of Russia where AI has been observed. These regions include parts of the already- affected Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan, North Kazakhstan, Akmolinskaya, and Karaganda oblasts. They also include areas in as-yet unaffected Kyzylordinskaya oblast, South Kazakhstan oblast (which borders Uzbekistan),and Almatinskaya oblast (which surrounds but does not include the city of Almaty). Comment -------------- ¶9. The Kazakhstani authorities continue to respond in a measured and calm manner to the bird flu outbreaks, although post notes that underreporting may be happening in some places where quarantines are already in place. The GOK has accepted U.S. help in diagnosing the problem and CDC/CAR continues to provide advisory services to the Kazakhstani ministries involved in the response. While the role of USG entities has not been publicly acknowledged, the GOK has been receptive to U.S. assistance throughout the epidemic. ¶10. Dushanbe Minimize considered. ASQUINO NNNN