KAZAKHSTAN READY TO ENGAGE ON UZBEK REFUGEES AND

UNCLAS ALMATY 002439 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREF PHUM PREL KZ UZ KG POLITICAL SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN READY TO ENGAGE ON UZBEK REFUGEES AND STABILITY -- IF KARIMOV WILL LISTEN ¶1. (SBU) Summary. On June 28, Ambassador met with Foreign Minister Kasymzhomart Tokayev. Ambassador raised developments surrounding the presence of Uzbek refugees in Kyrgyzstan. Tokayev said that Kazakhstan is ready to cooperate with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. In talks with Kyrgyz FM Roza Otunbayeva, Tokayev suggested that Kyrgyzstan give UNHCR the lead on refugee questions to deflect pressure from Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan has been unable to engage Karimov on concerns over refugees/stability, but is hoping to use the July 5-6 Shanghai Cooperation Summit in Astana to address concerns over Uzbekistan's stability. The FM was noncommittal when Ambassador noted the possibility that Uzbek refugees might look to Kazakhstan as a safe haven. Finally, Tokayev mentioned that he is interested in traveling to Washington and San Diego in early September. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Ambassador asked for Tokayev's assessment of the situation in Uzbekistan. He also solicited the FM's views on what can be done to help Kyrgyzstan cope with Uzbek refugees, particularly in standing up to pressure for their return. ¶3. (SBU) Tokayev responded that elements from Uzbek "agencies" were operating inside Kyrgyzstan and "bribing" Uzbeks to return. In recent talks with Kyrgyz FM Roza Otunbayeva, Tokayev told her that Kyrgyzstan should allow UNHCR to take the lead -- and if there is danger to returning refugees, Kyrgyzstan must provide shelter. Kazakhstan, Tokayev noted, had faced similar pressure from China over Uighurs. By giving UNHCR the primary voice on proposing an appropriate location for shelter, pressure was deflected away from Astana. Otunbayeva, he said, had mentioned the possibility of criminals among the refugees. Tokayev cautioned that unless such refugees had been convicted, Kyrgyzstan had to proceed cautiously in using this as grounds for return. ¶4. (SBU) Kazakhstan, Tokayev continued, understands the sensitivity of the refugees' circumstances and the need to work closely with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. However, he maintained that Karimov has been unwilling to discuss the matter. President Nazarbayev intends to use the July 5-6 Shanghai Cooperation Summit in Astana as an opportunity for bilateral and multilateral talks with Karimov. Nazarbayev briefed President Putin, the FM said, during a mid-June visit to Moscow, and pressed for Putin's support in persuading Karimov that economic/trade reforms must proceed to avoid a "difficult" situation. Moscow, Tokayev commented, felt a bit "abused" when Karimov traveled to China but not Russia, despite Moscow's low key response to events in Andizhon. ¶5. (SBU) Ambassador replied that Uzbekistan is already in a "difficult" position that is steadily deteriorating. He noted Uzbekistan seemed determined to isolate itself. Astana hoped, Tokayev said, to persuade Karimov during the SCO summit that Uzbekistan must avoid isolation by the international community. Ambassador remarked that it may already be too late. Tokayev also lamented the presence of so many "poor, unstable" countries in the neighborhood, but did not respond when Ambassador noted that refugees might see Kazakhstan as a safe haven. ¶6. (SBU) Turning to future travel plans, Tokayev told Ambassador that he was interested in attending the Kazakhstan Investment Conference in San Diego, Sep 8-9. The FM mentioned that he would also like to visit Washington during this period, and hoped to have meetings at State, NSC, DOD, and Energy. Ambassador promised to work with Washington on this proposal. ¶7. (U) Dushanbe minimize considered. ORDWAY NNNN