Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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05ALMATY2288 | 2005-06-17 10:20:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | US Office Almaty |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. |
UNCLAS ALMATY 002288 |
1. (SBU) Summary: In a June 7 speech to an Asar Party congress in Astana, party leader and first daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva discussed her vision for the party, the upcoming presidential elections, and concerns about opposition forces and Western-led democratization efforts. Most notably, she spoke at length about the risk of outside forces exploiting Kazakhstan's weaknesses to forcibly "export democracy" and provoke a revolution similar to events in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan. She also made unguarded comments about unrest in Russia having brought President Putin to power. End summary. Asar's Plans -------------------------- 2. (U) On June 7, the Asar Party held an extraordinary congress in Astana, attended by more than 130 delegates from around the country. Party leader Dariga Nazarbayeva gave the main presentation. A significant portion of Nazarbayeva's speech focused on Asar's strategies for the presidential elections officially scheduled for December 2006. Uniting with the Democratic Party of Kazakhstan, Asar proposed an initiative to establish a coalition of pro-presidential political parties, known as "National Union of Kazakhstan for Democracy." 3. (U) During press interviews after the party congress, Nazarbayeva reasserted that she has no ambitions to run for president, claiming to have distanced herself from the role as the president's daughter. Nazarbayeva stated that while her main profession in life is to be the daughter of the president, maintaining political autonomy as the leader of a pro- presidential party is still essential. The Threat of the "Export of Democracy" -------------------------- 4. (U) Nazarbayeva did not rule out the possibility that Kazakhstan could face a so-called "colored revolution," referring to recent political upheavals in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan. She claimed that outside forces could exploit weaknesses within the country to achieve what she called "the export of democracy." In her assessment, "Kazakhstan can become the target of outside democratic pressure." Nazarbayeva described what she called "a new technology of installing controllable governments on territories of strategic interests. Today there is no country that does not face a threat of forceful democratization from the outside." She also raised concerns about what she called radical political opposition, even claiming that the Kazakhstani political opposition is prepared to use force to seize power. She did not articulate any strategy to respond to these perceived threats. Government Reform Proposals -------------------------- 5. (U) During her speech, the party leader suggested that political reform should be synchronized with the pace of societal development. She dismissed the idea of limiting presidential authority and shifting to a model of parliamentary rule, insisting that "transition countries belong to a category that makes management difficult, even with executive authority." Nevertheless, she proposed strengthening the parliament's power by expanding its control over the national budget and national programs by forming the cabinet on the basis of a parliamentary majority. Some of these changes call for amendments to the Constitution, which will require, according to Nazarbayeva, "time, nation-wide discussion, and agreement of positions on behalf of the country's societal and political forces." Other Policy Priorities -------------------------- 6. (U) As part of its anti-corruption strategy, Nazarbayeva said that the Asar Party will set up public committees to monitor government officials. These same committees will also serve as the backbone for her new coalition of political parties. Nazarbayeva enumerated Asar's social and economic priorities as the development of civil society structures, free and independent press, youth participation in politics, improving education and health sectors of the country, addressing concerns about the pension system, and support for industry and small and medium size enterprises. 7. (U) Speaking about Russian President Vladimir Putin, Nazarbayeva made what appears to have been an unscripted comment that the bombings in Moscow and attacks by guerilla forces in Dagestan were instrumental in bringing Putin to power. The comment was made when discussing why President Nazabayev's successor has not been publicized yet. In her opinion, Putin "appeared literally half a year before he became president. A very effective PR campaign was organized in response to the explosions in Moscow and the war in Chechnya." Nazarbayeva also emphasized that Kazakhstan is the only country in the former Soviet Union to have avoided the burdens of terror, inter-ethnic conflict, and "vulgar dictators." 9. (SBU) Comment: Nazarbeyeva's speech was a clear example of her efforts to balance the need to appear loyal to her father while simultaneously calling for limited reforms of the government. For instance, she raised fears about a possible "colored" revolution initiated from abroad, yet she acknowledged the need for government reform to facilitate further democratization. End comment. ORDWAY NNNN |