MELES ON THE E/E BORDER - ETHIOPIA WILL RE-DEPLOY

C O N F I D E N T I A L ADDIS ABABA 004066 SIPDIS AF FOR DAS YAMAMOTO, USUN FOR EMILY BRUNO FROM CHARGE HUDDLESTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/15 TAGS: PREL KPKO MARR ET ER EE BORDER SUBJECT: MELES ON THE E/E BORDER - ETHIOPIA WILL RE-DEPLOY TO DECEMBER 2004 POSITIONS REF: ADDIS ABABA 4044 Classified By: Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b ,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a meeting with CJTF-HOA Commander General Ghormley and Ambassador concerning expansion of civil affairs projects in the Ogaden, Prime Minister Meles provided us with a read out on the border situation. He said that Isaias is sending signals to the US and the UN because he wants to irritate those he blames for his current situation. Ethiopia will send him back a good signal by complying with the recent UNSC resolution demanding re-deployment of his forces to December 2004 positions. Meles cautioned that if the UN is going to play the game and threaten Isaias, then it must be prepared to follow up with its trump card -- withdrawal of UNMEE because Isaias understands only power. UNMEE does not prevent war. A better option may be to avoid precipitous action and do nothing. Isaias will go if he thinks he can win and if not he will find a way out, according to Meles. End summary. ¶2. (C) Prime Minister Meles said he is not surprised nor is he unduly worried about Eritrea's ultimatum to the UN. It is designed to irritate all those who Isaias blames for his situation. Isaias will continue to take actions to call attention to himself and the situation until he is convinced that no one will respond. At that point he will make his decision one way or another. If Isaias concludes that he can win a conflict, he will go to war if not he will find a way out. Isaias is very smart and rationale. But "we will not be irritated" Meles continued. We will re-deploy to our December 2004 positions. Although there are Eritrea troops in the TSZ, we don't believe that this will jeopardize our re-deployment. I commended Meles for sticking with this decision because it sends a good signal to Ethiopia and the international community; he responded that it also sends a good signal to Isaias. ¶3. (C) Meles' advice for dealing with Eritrea was that the UN and the US should not threaten unless we are prepared to back up our words. "If the UN is irritated, then Isaias will do more." "He will succeed if the UN gets irritated because he wants people to get upset." The Prime Minister opined that the UN has two options: -- not to play Isaias game and he will come around; -- or stop the game early on. The biggest mistake would be to threaten and then not carry through. "Don't play the game if you are unwilling to withdraw UNMEE," Meles said. His advice to the UN is that UNMEE is their trump card. If the UN threatens Eritrea and Isaias does not respond, it must be prepared to withdraw UNMEE. In his view, UNMEE neither adds nor subtracts from peace on the border, but if Isaias wants UNMEE to stay he will make sure it does stay. I pointed out that UNMEE officials, based on prior conversation with the Foreign Minister, believe that Ethiopia would reoccupy the TSZ. Meles responded that this is not necessarily the case. Ethiopia is re-deploying in order to communicate with Isaias because if he wants war nothing will stop him, but if he assesses the situation and decides he cannot win he will not start a conflict. Isaias is talking to the US and to Ethiopia, Meles said but he cautioned we may not want to play the game because we have other distractions and Isaias is a master at his game. Therefore it may be best to do nothing. Knee jerk reactions should be avoided. HUDDLESTON