C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003761

SIPDIS

FOR A/S FRAZER FROM VICKI HUDDLESTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ET UNREST ELEC
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: PRIME MINISTER GIVES HIS VIEW ON
INTERNAL STRIFE

Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) I met with Prime Minister Meles on November 2 shortly
after an Ambassador Donor Group meeting with the Forign
Minister. During this meeting I was able to raise the issues
of concern to us: human rights, realease of CUD/P leaders,
restrain in the face of protests, and the need to move
forward with creating more political space through dialogue.
PM Meles said that we should be under no illusions the 25
CUD/P leaders that had organized the "insurrection" would be
tried in a court of law, have access to families and
medicines but under no circumstances be released. The PM
said there would be a dialogue with the opposition in
Parliament and those CUD/P leaders who were not arrested --
there are sixty on the council -- and who disavowed violence.
He said that now the government - with the "extremist" in
jail -- was not longer in jail and could create political
space and open a dialogue on the NEB, Parliament, Media and
Rule of Law. He claimed that the violence was carried out by
the unemployed youth not the population of Addis but the
overreaction of the security forces has created a feeling of
unfairness and frustration The PM has -- perhaps unknowingly
-- unleashed with the run up to the elections great
expectations that democracy should be part of the Ethiopian
culture. How well he manages these expectations may well
determine if Ethiopia develops into a stable democracy. end
summary.




2. (C) I opened this part of the conversation -- the first
part was on the Eritrea/Ethiopia reported septel -- by
telling the Prime Minister that in the Ambassadors' Donor
Group meeting with the Foreign Minister the two theme
reiterated by all ambassadors was that the detained CUD
leaders should be released and that the GOE security forces
should use maximum restraint in quelling the riots. The PM
said he has spoken with the Foreign Minister and was
surprised at what he heard because he had told British
Ambassador Dewar, me, and the Oppo

sition leaders that he was
willing to seek a political solution via dialogue but that
was only as long as they followed a peaceful path and avoided
insurrection. He had agreed to wait until life and property
were in danger. This had now occurred and there was no
possibility of release for the CUD/P leaders as they had
commited crimes that must be judged in courts of law. "Let me
be very clear about this, you should have no illusions" --
they will not be release prior to standing trial.


3. (C) I pointed out that the PM had put into motion events
that were changing Ethiopia. By approving open elections and
campaigning there was a new atmosphere and much greater
expectations. Now it would be difficult to control
expectation unless he provided real political openings. The
PM first responded that there would be no dialogue with those
jailed, that was over. However, he did realize that he
needed to reach out to those who did not vote for the ruling
EPRDF party. Nevertheless, Addis does not represent Ethiopia
and in his view the public were not supporting these
disturbances as they did last June. Today it is Addis'
300,000 unemployed youth that are creating the disturbances.
The CUD has mobilized this. CUD/P leader and mayor elect
Berhanu Nega had written the "paper for insurrection." (I
assume the PM was referring to the CUD/P plan for street
actions that was distributed over the weekend calling for
everything from honking horns to boycott of EPRDF business to
a stay at home strike.) The Government was faced with a
unacceptable situation the PM said. Even members and leaders
of the CUD/P who disagreed with its leaders -- like Lidetu,
who now fears for his life becasue he refused to join the
CUD/P in its actions -- have been cowed by Hailu Shawel and
the CUD leaders.


4. (C) I urged the Prime Minister that if these leaders were
not release to ensure that they had access to medicines and
to their families and that they would be speedily tried in an
impartial court of law. He responded that this would be
done. All the leaders had been escorted to their homes to
pick up medicines and personnel belongings and familles would
be allowed to visit. The GOE would closely follow the letter
of the law in its treatment of those detained and throughout
the judicial process. But, the PM said, we must understand
that Ethiopian democracy can not be determined by the
international community-- whether we wish these leaders to be
freed or not. Ethiopia must make these determinations and
some embassies -- not the USG -- had perhaps unwittingly led
some of the opposition leaders to believe that they could
keep them out of jail or obtain their freedom if they were
jailed. I told the PM I never doubted his word. I understood
he would arrest them and ban the party if they engaged in
what he termed "street violence" and I had made this very
clear to the CUD/P leaders.


5. (C) The PM said that we had a package that the GOE and
the Opposition had agreed upon and that this package would
continue to be the basis for dialogue with the opposition in
Parliament and those in the CUD who were not jailed and
disavowed violence. The PM said that 25 of the 60 CUD/P
Council members were arrested for insurrection. The remained
he considered to have publicly or privately disavowed CUD/P's
plan for civil disobedience. He had himself reviewed the list
of those to be detained and was satisfied that there was
ample evidence against them. The package of issue on which
the dialogue will take place will be principally the NEB, the
Parliament, the Media, and Rule of Law. The Troika met with
the PM today who told them he was reviewing procedures for
carrying out this dialogue. I raised the need to appoint a
neutral NEB. The PM today in conversations with the Troika
went further on reviewing Parliamentary rules that
disadvantage the Opposition.


6. (C) In response to my complaint that the government had
failed to go far enough in the dialogue the PM sated that the
government had been in "limbo but now we know where we stand.
Now we can move and we have committed ourselves to lining up
to normal democratic practices and expect the same from the
opposition." I ended with the hope that these political
openings would be accompanied by economic opens as well, but
that was a conversation for another day.


7. (C) Comment: The Opposition leaders will not be released
because their call for street actions and the resulting
violence in which at least yesterday the security forces
overreacted and in one case shot into a group of school
children is seen as a direct challenge to overthrow the
government via a type of "Rose Revolution." Those leaders
not detained still have the option of going into Parliament
and City government or remaining outside of both. The
Government seems more willing to actually move forward on
creating more political space. However, whether they will
do it fast enough to prevent the outbreak of more frustration
and anger remains a question. The manner in which security
forces treat the population is often bad and results in the
population feeling it is abused and treated unfairly. There
seems to be a new feeling that came out of the elections,
namely that Ethiopian should have a democracy. The PM seems
to believe that, too. (Perhaps not in the way we would wish
because he is determined to control it.) But whether he can
move fast and far enough to satisfy his people will be his
challenge.
HUDDLESTON