C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 003759

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ET ELEC UNREST
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: ANTI-GOVERNMENT PROTESTS SPREAD, AT
LEAST 33 DEAD

Classified By: Charge d'Affairs Vicki Huddleston for reason
1.4 (b,d)



1. (C) Summary: Violent street clashes between
anti-government demonstrators and squads of security forces
spread beyond their initial flashpoints to most parts of the
capital Nov. 2-3. Although confrontations occurred both in
the vicinity of the Embassy and in Old Airport, where most
embassy residences are located, there were no attacks against
any USG facility. Some embassy vehicles surveying the city
were stoned by rioters. We have unconfirmed reports of
dozens of killings from both known contacts as well as the
general public. The reputable Ethiopian Human Rights Council
claims to have counted 33 bodies as of the evening of Nov.

2. Disturbances continued on November 3, punctuated by a
reported confrontation between police and demonstrators as
the former arrested CUD Vice President Bertukan Mideksa.
With most of the senior CUD leadership now behind bars, it is
not clear who -- if anyone -- is coordinating the street
action. The sheer number of demonstrators and their wide
dispersion throughout Addis Ababa appears to have overwhelmed
the capacity of the security forces' riot control units and
forced the GOE to deploy special forces units to try and cope
with the situation. The Ambassadors' Donors Group ADG
released a balanced statement Nov. 3 (septel) deploring the
violence, calling for the release of political prisoners,
demanding humane treatment for other detainees and a return
to peaceful dialogue in order to strengthen Ethiopian
democracy. After the restoration of civil order in Addis,
achieving additional progress in suspended negotiations on
key democratic reforms -- especially the National Electoral
Board -- will be essential to preventing further outbreaks of
violence and getting multi-party democracy back on track.
End Summary.

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Riots Extend Throughout Addis
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2. (C) Anti-government demonstrations that began on Nov. 1 in
the central Mercato and Piazza areas of the capital spread to
most areas of

Addis Ababa Nov. 2. Several emboffs surveying
the city witnessed numerous groups of demonstrators, many of
whom were throwing rocks, blocking roads and generally
challenging security forces. FM Seyoum told donor
ambassadors that some demonstrators had used machetes against
police, and that four grenades had been thrown at police. We
heard numerous reports of clashes between demonstrators and
police in Mercato, Piazza, Old Airport, and areas adjacent to
the British and French Embassies. Shooting could be heard in
close proximity to the Embassy compound in the Entoto area,
as well as higher up on Entoto mountain itself. Pol/Econ
Counselor encountered two groups of demonstrators who made
angry gestures in the direction of his diplomatic vehicle.
One rock hit his vehicle, and he was blocked from approaching
the British Embassy, outside of which 10 demonstrators will
reportedly killed earlier.


3. (C) Sporadic but heavy gunfire continued in Addis through
the afternoon of November 3, including within earshot of the
Embassy. Post has also heard reports unconfirmed reports of
arrests in other areas of the country. USG contractors
report that other major cities, including Dire Dawa, Bahir
Dar and Awassa are calm, however.

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Dozens More Dead, Over a Thousand Arrested
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4. (C) We have unconfirmed reports of dozens of killings from
both known contacts as well as the general public. The
reputable Ethiopian Human Rights Council claims to have
counted 33 bodies as of evening on Nov 2. News outlets have
reported casualty figures ranging from a low of 8 to a high
of 200. Some of the dead are reportedly high school
students. At least 2 members of the security forces have
been killed. Emboffs have seen a large number of police
vehicles loaded with detainees in the vicinity of
demonstrations, and international wire services report that
many detainees are being held in an amphitheater in the
center of the city. Post has also received calls indicating
that security forces are conducting house-to-house round ups
in certain areas. FM Seyoum told Ambassadors Nov. 2 (septel)
that there have been around 1,000 arrests, though he said the
GOE was also releasing those who did not have a direct
connection to the violence. There were also reports that the
GOE elite gazi nits, staffed by trusted, highly-trained
Tigrayan fighters, had been brought in to Addis.

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Imprisoned CUDP Leaders Remain a Center of Controversy
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5. (C) The GOE has rounded up nearly all senior CUDP leaders
and some mid-level party officials -- 25 of 60 party council
members, according to the PM. The attempted arrest of CUDP
vice president Bertukan Mideksa on November 2 reportedly
sparked a confrontation between a significant crowd and
police seeking to take her away. It now appears that
Bertukan eluded arrest at that time, but a student reported
to Pol/Econ counselor that she surrendered to police around
noon on November 3, allegedly because of continuing deaths
and injuries among those who were seeking to protect her from
security forces . Some of the violence on Nov. 2 occurred in
the vicinity of the Federal Investigations facility in the
Piazza area, where principal CUDP leaders, including
president Hailu Shawel and Berhanu Nega, are being held.
Reports yesterday indicated that Hailu and CUDP spokesman
Gizachew Shiferaw were taken back home after their arrest to
gather necessary medicines. Gizachew's son claims that
policy escorting Gizachew planted documents concerning a
conspiracy to assassinate senior GOE leaders in the CUPD
leader's house, then tried to force him to sign a confession
that the documents were his. Family members of Hailu and
Berhanu on November 3 claimed that they had been turned away
when trying to bring the prisoners diabetes medication; PM
Meles and FM Seyoum assured the Charge Nov. 2 that prisoners
would receive necessary medications as well as family visits,
and be treated according to international standards. Neither
United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF) leaders nor CUD
rebel Lidetu Ayalew were arrested. The PM indicated to the
Charge that the GOE had arrested only those opposition
leaders who advocated the overthrow of the government.

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Who's to Blame? Plenty to Go Around
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6. (C) The GOE charges that the CUDP coordinated and actively
encouraged the public to confront the police in the streets.
Foreign Minister Seyoum told the Ambassadors' Donors Group
Nov. 2 that the CUDP had bused in supporters to instigate
riots in the Mercato on Nov. 1; Prime Minister Meles told
Charge Huddleston that the GOE had found a plan for street
action prepared by Addis mayor-elect Berhanu Nega (Septel).
Post was aware that this plan, which included honking horns
and a stay-at-home strike, was widely distributed over the
weekend in Addis. State media reported on November 3 that
young demonstration ringleaders had received USD 150 each to
stir up trouble. Post has no hard evidence at this point as
to what role CUDP leaders played in funding or coordinating
stone-throwing demonstrators. What is clear is that the
demonstrations began two days after the CUDP's weekend call
for a campaign of non-violent civil disobedience. At a
minimum, the CUDP's civil disobedience helped create
conditions for the violence to begin; GOE arrests first of
protesters, then of CUDP leaders, provided the other
ingredient necessary for combustion. With most of the senior
CUD leadership behind bars, it's also not clear who -- if
anyone -- is coordinating the street action. The GOE claims
the demonstrations were planned in advance and has been
carried out by the over 300,000 unemployed youth in the
capital. All private newspapers, the only media to which the
opposition had access apart from international radio
broadcasts, are closed down for now. Several of their
editors, some of them strong proponents of challenging the
EPRDF in the streets, are now in custody.

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Comment I: More Than GOE Bargained For
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7. (C) Large-scale street battles in Addis, where the EPRDF
is weakest, is clearly the GOE worst nightmare and exactly
what the Diaspora and hard-liners in the CUD wanted to see.
Demonstrators -- and CUDP leader -- are clearly betting that
the GOE will lose so much public and international support in
battling protests that it will either be forced from power or
have to cede some power to the opposition. The sheer number
of demonstrators and their wide dispersion throughout Addis
Ababa appears to have overwhelmed the capacity of the
security forces' riot control units and forced the GOE to
deploy special forces units to try and cope with the
situation. Meles predicted to the Charge Nov. 2 that the GOE
will have fully restored order by Saturday Nov. 4.
Disturbances on Nov. 3 -- a national holiday marking the end
of Ramadan -- appeared to be less widespread and violent than
those of Nov. 2.

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Comment II: What Can We Do?
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8. (C) Post has received a large number of calls begging us
to o something o stop the violence. The demonstrations
are clearly focused against the GOE, but there appears to be
some level of popular frustration at that the U.S and UK have
not been able to prevent this violence, as they had earlier.
Some appear to believe the USG has sided with the GOE against
CUD opposition leaders. Charge has continued to work closely
with EU counterparts to urge the GOE to use restraint. The
Ambassadors' Donors Group ADG released a balanced statement
Nov. 3 (septel) deploring the violence, calling for the
release of political prisoners, demanding humane treatment
for other detainees and a return to peaceful dialogue in
order to strengthen Ethiopian democracy. After the
restoration of civil order in Addis, achieving additional
progress in suspended negotiations on key democratic reforms
-- especially the National Electoral Board -- will be
essential to preventing further outbreaks of violence and
getting multi-party democracy back on track.
HUDDLESTON