C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003382

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ET ELEC UNREST
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: CUD COUNCIL DISTANCES ITSELF FROM HAILU
SHAWEL'S COMMENTS


Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reasons 1.4 b and d


1. (SBU) Summary. On September 21, the CUD, Ethiopia's
largest opposition coalition, issued a statement that
distances the CUD Council from provocative comments made by
Coalition Chairman Hailu Shawel in Washington. The CUD
statement notes that Shawel's comments, which included a
commitment to boycott Parliament and a call for the GOE's
resignation, do not reflect the official position of the
coalition. The CUD communique further states that the CUD
will make the decision on whether to join parliament in
conjunction with addressing broader political concerns.
Hailu Shawel's declarations in the U.S. have been portrayed
by the state-owned media as reflecting CUD's position,
however, and have added to a sense of confusion and division
within the opposition. At the same time, demonstrations
called by the opposition for October 2 in Addis Ababa, along
with allegations of increased harassment of opposition
members by the government, have heightened tension and
increased political polarization. End Summary.

Chairman Hailu: We Will Boycott and Bring This Government Down
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2. (SBU) In separate appearances at a press conference at
Washington's National Press Club, a town hall meeting with
the Diaspora, and an interview with VOA, CUD Chairman Hailu
Shawel reportedly stated that Ethiopia's elections had been
fraudulent. He indicated that his party (the All Ethiopian
Unity Party, the largest component of the CUD coalition)
would not join parliament, which is scheduled to convene in
early October. Hailu also stated that the opposition's
constituents had clearly told their leadership that they
should not accept the results of the elections. He was also
critical of Western governments (including the US and the UK)
that have called on the opposition to take its seats in
parliament. In addition, Hailu again put forward the idea of
a transitional government, a concept which the ruling party

has repeatedly rejected. In response to a question about
what the USG should do, he said that the US should inform the
government that they had lost the election and must
relinquish power. Hailu answered another question by saying,
"No guns will be used. Not a single bullet will be shot.
But we will bring this government down."

CUD In Addis: Hailu Doesn't Speak For Us
--------------


3. (SBU) The state-owned media reported Hailu's statements as
the official position of the CUD concerning Parliament. In
response, the CUD Council issued a press release on September

21. The press release clearly notes that the statement given
by Hailu Shawel is his personal opinion and not that of the
CUD Council. It states that that the CUD Council has not yet
to take a position on whether to join the Parliament.
However, it stresses that the real issue is not parliamentary
participation, but rather "whether a democratic system could
prevail in our country." The CUD statement argues that
preventing the country from being "dragged into political
chaos" and pushing the ruling party to accept opposition's
recommendations on democratic reforms are the most important
political questions. The release states that these issues
must be addressed in conjunction with the opposition's
decision on whether to join parliament. The press release
indicates that the CUD will make its decision "after
assessing the country's political problems, the democratic
processes and subsequent steps in close collaboration with
allied opposition parties." During a separate press
conference on September 21, CUD and UEDF leaders criticized
the government for what they called illegal and undemocratic
activities, including harassment and destruction of property
of opposition leaders and members.

Opposition Stumbles Forward, Hoping for a Miracle
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Comment: It has become common for opposition leaders
to take more radical positions while consulting with the
Ethiopian Diaspora in the U.S. than they do when they are in
Addis Ababa. Shawal's comments may have been designed to
appeal to financial backers in the U.S. -- or to younger,
more radical CUD members in Ethiopia who are eager to
confront the EPRDF head on. His comments would almost
certainly get him arrested in Addis Ababa, and have roiled
opposition ranks just as the CUD is set to meet this weekend
to form a new, "unified" party from current coalition
members. Local sources tell post that other opposition
leaders remain divided on whether to take their parliamentary
seats. A large number of MPs-elect have picked up their
credentials, and the CUD has taken a number of steps to
prepare for assuming authority over Ethiopia's capital, but
opposition leaders Berhanu Nega and Marera Gudina continue to
say that they will boycott Parliament unless the GOE improves
the democratic climate. Plans for a large protest on October
2 continue apace.
HUDDLESTON