SOUTHEAST REMAINS SKEPTICAL ABOUT GOT REFORM PROMISES AFTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADANA 000216

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM TU
SUBJECT: SOUTHEAST REMAINS SKEPTICAL ABOUT GOT REFORM PROMISES AFTER
PM VISIT TO REGION

REF: A) ADANA 207, B) ANKARA 6772


1. (SBU) Summary and comment: Reaction in Turkey's
heavily-Kurdish southeast to PM Erdogan's November 21 visit to
Semdinli, Yuksekova and Hakkari was positive, but skepticism
about the government's ability to bring the perpetrators of the
Semdinli bombings to justice remains high. Erdogan did not
offer specifics about how the government's handling of the
Semdinli issue would differ from past inquiries, which the
regional public considers whitewashes. The PM's speeches
disappointed the local public. Erdogan has not built
confidence in his commitment to new democracy initiatives for
the region. End Summary and Comment.

PM Visits Region Most Affected by Post-Bombing Violence
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2. (U) Erdogan, accompanied by Minister of Justice Cicek and
Minister of Interior Aksu, made a "surprise" visit to the
southeastern cities of Semdinli, Yuksekova and Hakkari on
November 21. The visit came after a week of violence in those
cities following the implication of jandarma in a November 9
bookstore bombing in Semdinli (reftels A and B). The PM's visit
was an attempt by the government to resolve tensions in the
region. Erdogan used photo opportunities in front of damaged
Semdinli buildings, promising locals repayment for damage done
to their property in the blast, to try to cast a sympathetic
image of the national government to skeptical Hakkari residents.
Erdogan emphasized that issues in southeast Turkey needed to be
addressed by economic development and called for national unity
based on a common Turkish identity. He called for patience and
commitment to judicial due process and denounced terrorism. The
PM's remarks in Semdinli clung closely to the line set by TGS
Chief Ozkok rather than the more forward-leaning language
regarding a "Kurdish question" that Erdogan used in a Diyarbakir
speech in August. Regional Kurdish activists clearly believe
that reform suggestions based mainly on economic development are
inadequate; they want to see political change. The PM also
deflected questions about why F-16s had flown low over funeral
ceremonies remembering those killed in recent clashes; he said
he would look into why the overflight had happened.

Visit Appreciated, but GOT Must Follow-up with Action
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3. (SBU) Van attorney Abdulmenaf Kiran told us the visit was a
positive step, but confidence in the government had deteriorated
since authorities released two of three jandarma suspects
directly implicated in the bombing incident (reftel B). Kiran
emphasized that the PM needs to demonstrate his decisiveness
with concrete actions, but that, so far, the government had done
nothing.


4. (SBU) Former Semdinli Mayor Selahattin Ciftci told us that
the PM was warmly received during his visit to Semdinli. Ciftci
said that while the PM was touring the bombed out shops he
instructed local civilian officials to compensate the citizens
for their losses and promised to bring the perpetrators to
justice. Ciftci stated that local youths were constrained by
police for security reasons from going near the PM as he
addressed the crowd. Ciftci emphasized that efforts by the GOT
to prosecute the perpetrators will play a key role in building
confidence between the government and local citizens.


5. (SBU) Hakkari Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI)
President Ahmet Sen told us people were happy to see the PM in
the region, and interpreted his visit as an indication that the
government would keep its promise to bring the Semdinli bombers
to justice. Sen said that the visit would contribute to
confidence building. Sen added that life in the region had
returned to normal after the violent, post-bombing
demonstrations, and that "people with common sense" applauded
the PM's visit and his pledge to ensure a thorough
investigation. (Comment: Sen's assessment is at odds with
reports of continuing protests throughout SE Turkey. End
Comment.)

Can GOT Fulfill Promises?
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6. (SBU) Yuksekova pro-Kurdish Democratic People's Party (DEHAP)
Mayor Salih Yildiz told us that the PM's promises of a thorough
investigation pleased Hakkari residents, but people still have
serious doubts about what Erdogan could do about the "deep
state." (Note: A term commonly used referring to a supposed
government-within-the-government allegedly comprised of
ultra-nationalist security and justice officials, bureaucrats,
and PKK defectors who carry out illegal, sub rosa activities to
protect and preserve the state. Many people believe that the
Semdinli bombers were "deep state" agents. End Note.) Yildiz
said that Erdogan's visit to Yuksekova raised some expectations
among the local populace for government recognition of their
Kurdish identity and greater application of justice for the
Kurdish population. Yildiz believes the purpose of the PM's
visit was to show the EU and the rest of the world that the GOT
is not indifferent to the bombings, while seeking to reduce
tensions in the region.


7. (SBU) Diyarbakir's Southeastern Industrialists and
Businessmen Association (GUNSIAD) President Sahismail
Bedirhanoglu told us that no prime minister had visited places
in the southeast where similar incidents had occurred in the
past, and that Erdogan's visit to the region showed sensitivity.
Bedirhanoglu is encouraged by the PM's promise to bring the
perpetrators to justice, and by his remark that "Turkey is not
the Turkey in 1991." (Note: This refers to the "state of
emergency" period when many mysterious killings occurred, and
the perpetrators were never brought to justice. End Note)
Bedirhanoglu emphasized that people in the region would maintain
a wait and see attitude regarding the PM's promises.

Comment
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8. (SBU) Our interlocutors are pleased with the PM's efforts to
build confidence between the government and the people of the
region. At the same time, most of the regional public remains
doubtful about the government's ability to penetrate what they
see as a wall thrown up by the security establishment. Much of
the regional public actually believes that the security
establishment wants to keep the PKK/Kurdish terrorism threat
alive through such activities as terrorist-type bombings staged
by security forces to undermine the EU reform process,
protecting their current privileged position in the Turkish
state. Jandarma may have been involved in dirty tricks in
Hakkari, but the extent of these alleged incidents elsewhere in
southeast Turkey and how high up involvement runs is unclear. A
transparent investigation is sorely needed, both to answer local
questions about jandarma involvement and to rebuild regional
public confidence in the government. Erdogan's visit offered
little concrete evidence that the GOT will turn a new leaf in
handling the Semdinli affair.
REID