SOUTHEAST REMAINS SKEPTICAL ABOUT GOT REFORM PROMISES AFTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADANA 000216 SIPDIS SENSITIVE NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM TU SUBJECT: SOUTHEAST REMAINS SKEPTICAL ABOUT GOT REFORM PROMISES AFTER PM VISIT TO REGION REF: A) ADANA 207, B) ANKARA 6772 ¶1. (SBU) Summary and comment: Reaction in Turkey's heavily-Kurdish southeast to PM Erdogan's November 21 visit to Semdinli, Yuksekova and Hakkari was positive, but skepticism about the government's ability to bring the perpetrators of the Semdinli bombings to justice remains high. Erdogan did not offer specifics about how the government's handling of the Semdinli issue would differ from past inquiries, which the regional public considers whitewashes. The PM's speeches disappointed the local public. Erdogan has not built confidence in his commitment to new democracy initiatives for the region. End Summary and Comment. PM Visits Region Most Affected by Post-Bombing Violence -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) Erdogan, accompanied by Minister of Justice Cicek and Minister of Interior Aksu, made a "surprise" visit to the southeastern cities of Semdinli, Yuksekova and Hakkari on November 21. The visit came after a week of violence in those cities following the implication of jandarma in a November 9 bookstore bombing in Semdinli (reftels A and B). The PM's visit was an attempt by the government to resolve tensions in the region. Erdogan used photo opportunities in front of damaged Semdinli buildings, promising locals repayment for damage done to their property in the blast, to try to cast a sympathetic image of the national government to skeptical Hakkari residents. Erdogan emphasized that issues in southeast Turkey needed to be addressed by economic development and called for national unity based on a common Turkish identity. He called for patience and commitment to judicial due process and denounced terrorism. The PM's remarks in Semdinli clung closely to the line set by TGS Chief Ozkok rather than the more forward-leaning language regarding a "Kurdish question" that Erdogan used in a Diyarbakir speech in August. Regional Kurdish activists clearly believe that reform suggestions based mainly on economic development are inadequate; they want to see political change. The PM also deflected questions about why F-16s had flown low over funeral ceremonies remembering those killed in recent clashes; he said he would look into why the overflight had happened. Visit Appreciated, but GOT Must Follow-up with Action -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Van attorney Abdulmenaf Kiran told us the visit was a positive step, but confidence in the government had deteriorated since authorities released two of three jandarma suspects directly implicated in the bombing incident (reftel B). Kiran emphasized that the PM needs to demonstrate his decisiveness with concrete actions, but that, so far, the government had done nothing. ¶4. (SBU) Former Semdinli Mayor Selahattin Ciftci told us that the PM was warmly received during his visit to Semdinli. Ciftci said that while the PM was touring the bombed out shops he instructed local civilian officials to compensate the citizens for their losses and promised to bring the perpetrators to justice. Ciftci stated that local youths were constrained by police for security reasons from going near the PM as he addressed the crowd. Ciftci emphasized that efforts by the GOT to prosecute the perpetrators will play a key role in building confidence between the government and local citizens. ¶5. (SBU) Hakkari Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI) President Ahmet Sen told us people were happy to see the PM in the region, and interpreted his visit as an indication that the government would keep its promise to bring the Semdinli bombers to justice. Sen said that the visit would contribute to confidence building. Sen added that life in the region had returned to normal after the violent, post-bombing demonstrations, and that "people with common sense" applauded the PM's visit and his pledge to ensure a thorough investigation. (Comment: Sen's assessment is at odds with reports of continuing protests throughout SE Turkey. End Comment.) Can GOT Fulfill Promises? -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Yuksekova pro-Kurdish Democratic People's Party (DEHAP) Mayor Salih Yildiz told us that the PM's promises of a thorough investigation pleased Hakkari residents, but people still have serious doubts about what Erdogan could do about the "deep state." (Note: A term commonly used referring to a supposed government-within-the-government allegedly comprised of ultra-nationalist security and justice officials, bureaucrats, and PKK defectors who carry out illegal, sub rosa activities to protect and preserve the state. Many people believe that the Semdinli bombers were "deep state" agents. End Note.) Yildiz said that Erdogan's visit to Yuksekova raised some expectations among the local populace for government recognition of their Kurdish identity and greater application of justice for the Kurdish population. Yildiz believes the purpose of the PM's visit was to show the EU and the rest of the world that the GOT is not indifferent to the bombings, while seeking to reduce tensions in the region. ¶7. (SBU) Diyarbakir's Southeastern Industrialists and Businessmen Association (GUNSIAD) President Sahismail Bedirhanoglu told us that no prime minister had visited places in the southeast where similar incidents had occurred in the past, and that Erdogan's visit to the region showed sensitivity. Bedirhanoglu is encouraged by the PM's promise to bring the perpetrators to justice, and by his remark that "Turkey is not the Turkey in 1991." (Note: This refers to the "state of emergency" period when many mysterious killings occurred, and the perpetrators were never brought to justice. End Note) Bedirhanoglu emphasized that people in the region would maintain a wait and see attitude regarding the PM's promises. Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Our interlocutors are pleased with the PM's efforts to build confidence between the government and the people of the region. At the same time, most of the regional public remains doubtful about the government's ability to penetrate what they see as a wall thrown up by the security establishment. Much of the regional public actually believes that the security establishment wants to keep the PKK/Kurdish terrorism threat alive through such activities as terrorist-type bombings staged by security forces to undermine the EU reform process, protecting their current privileged position in the Turkish state. Jandarma may have been involved in dirty tricks in Hakkari, but the extent of these alleged incidents elsewhere in southeast Turkey and how high up involvement runs is unclear. A transparent investigation is sorely needed, both to answer local questions about jandarma involvement and to rebuild regional public confidence in the government. Erdogan's visit offered little concrete evidence that the GOT will turn a new leaf in handling the Semdinli affair. REID