WHAT NEXT ON BAKASSI? IS THE UN STILL IN THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000880 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2015 TAGS: PREL CM NI SUBJECT: WHAT NEXT ON BAKASSI? IS THE UN STILL IN THE PICTURE? REF: A. YAOUNDE 889 ¶B. 04 ABUJA 1804 ¶C. ABUJA 237 Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (B & D). ¶1. (C) From Embassy Abuja's perspective, it seems UNSGSR Ould Abdullah's efforts to bring Nigeria and Cameroon to closure on Bakassi may be in trouble. As we have long reported (Ref B and before),the GON is only President Obasanjo on Bakassi, and Obasanjo has often said that he and President Biya would work out implementation of the ICJ decision, including Bakassi, and the maritime border past the "Point G" end of the ICJ verdict. UNSYG Annan's Special Representative Ould Abdallah has been coordinating the "Mixed Commission" where less contentious implementation of northern portions of the ICJ decision has been hammered out, and has been shuttling between Obasanjo and Biya. But Annan's summit with Biya and Obasanjo in Geneva May 11 appears to have produced nothing, and we understand from Embassy Yaounde and the French Embassy here that Biya is angry with Ould Abdallah. ¶2. (C) We understand from various sources that the next Mixed Commission meeting is being put off from June until at least August. The Mixed Commission is not where Bakassi would be decided unless Biya and Obasanjo both wished it so, but putting off the Mixed Commission meeting does symbolize the impasse. It is unclear whether postponement was Cameroon's idea, angry with Ould Abdallah, or whether it was the GON arguing (as it often has) that nothing on the border can be done during the rainy season -- i.e. until October. It does not matter much which. Obasanjo and Biya are both entrenched in their positions, nothing will be decided inside the Mixed Commission until Obasanjo and Biya agree outside it, and Ould Abdallah seems unable to find any third options on Bakassi that Biya will accept (Ref A). ¶3. (C) The French Embassy here in Abuja told us two interesting things May 27. First, that Ould Abdallah accuses Nigerian head of delegation Bola Ajibola and Cameroonian head of delegation Amadou Ali of being time-servers prolonging negotiations to keep their paychecks, much the way (the French say) that Ould Abdallah is accused of stringing out the process to keep his job and perks. Second, that the GOF apparently did not raise Bakassi with Obasanjo during his four-day official visit to France May 24-27. Debt relief, UNSC seat, Togo, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigerians immigrating to Europe, Darfur -- all yes. Bakassi no. The British High Commission told us earlier that Bakassi had not been raised during Obasanjo's recent visit to London either. ¶4. (C) The French Embassy told us France is not overly concerned with continuing stalemate so long as both sides are talking, because Cameroon was unlikely to go to war with Nigeria and would only hurt itself bringing the issue to the UNSC. But France was concerned if Biya's anger at Ould Abdallah put the Mixed Commission's continuance in jeopardy. France did not mind the next Mixed Commission meeting being put off, perhaps as late as September, but it did want the process between Nigeria and Cameroon to continue. CAMPBELL