PRES. OBASANJO CONSOLIDATES HIS GRIP ON RULING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002289 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2015 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PREL NI ELECTIONS SUBJECT: PRES. OBASANJO CONSOLIDATES HIS GRIP ON RULING PARTY REF: A. ABUJA 2244 ¶B. ABUJA 2079 Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) President Obasanjo continues to consolidate his grip on the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) in preparation for its national convention early next year. The results of the latest regional (zonal) congresses of the PDP confirm Obasanjo's control over party machinery. Success in completely dominating the ruling party has apparently given President Obasanjo and his allies enough confidence to allow them to begin to reveal the contours of a more ambitious political agenda. -------------- Obasanjo's PDP: It's My Party -------------- ¶2. (U) The PDP conducted its party congresses over the weekend of November 12-13 in the six geo-political zones of the country. For the most part, the events were drama-free, although several long-standing party divisions at the state level are still unresolved. Like the congresses on the local and state level, officers were not voted into office, but rather chosen by the party hierarchy and merely "affirmed" by local participants. This process of pre-determination of office holders was exclusive, thereby weeding out any potential non-loyalists to Obasanjo. The affirmation process was also in contravention of both the party's constitution and a high court ruling compelling the party to follow its own rules. ¶3. (C) In one case, a rival candidate for a regional position refused to give way to the party's hand-picked candidate, forcing a vote. In the process, the rival won the majority of the votes, but President Obasanjo personally vetoed his election, appointing the loser in his place. -------------- -------------- Limited Options for PDP-ers Outside the Inner Circle -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Party members who have been dealt out of the PDP have used a number of strategies in hopes of regaining entry. In several states parallel party congresses were conducted and alternate PDP leadership structures elected. But this far into the party nomination process, President Obasanjo's complete control of the ruling party appears irreversible. Although the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) has the statutory power to intervene in intra-party fights, it has not made any public comment and is unlikely to become involved in sorting out the situation, especially given that the PDP ignored a previous Abuja High Court ruling. ¶5. (U) In some cases, dissent from within the PDP has morphed into organized opposition. Disgruntled current and former PDP members met recently in Lagos to form the Movement for the Defense of Democracy (MDD),a new national pressure group, and, potentially, a political party. The formation of the MDD has been supplemented by Movement for the Restoration of Democracy (MRD),organized last week, which is a Northern pressure group organizing against a third term, and the formation this week of the Northern Members Forum (NMF),a grouping of Northern members of the National Assembly from both parties. The NMF's meeting November 21 at the Abuja Hilton attracted about 1,000 attendees. The keynote speaker was Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who made a low-key speech in which he said that he had recently been "de-registered" by the PDP. The NMF claims to have pledges against a third term from 189 legislators. ¶6. (C) The controversy may have spawned yet another gathering of concerned citizens as well. It appears that at least 65 community organizations from throughout the country are organizing a series of protests beginning in Lagos and Abuja by mid-December. Comprised of mostly twenty- and thirty-something activists, this group intends to bring pressure on the governors and National Assembly members through rallies organized in key locations. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Although public criticism of the congresses continues, actual violence at party meetings has decreased as many PDP partisans have either created their own structures or joined with other allies. The Vice President, although hurt, is not yet finished. He still maintains the capacity to cause problems for the PDP and fully intends to continue the fight. His supporters also apparently have become the catalyst for the formation of structured opposition to any attempt to extend President Obasanjo's current mandate. FUREY