MEDIA REACTION: NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001086

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W, AF/PDPA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SOCI PINR OIIP OPRC KDEM NI
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL
REPORT

Begin Summary: The National Intelligence Council (NIC)
Report, "Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa's Future, touched off a
firestorm of debate in the National Assembly and in the
media; overshadowing discussion of presidential impeachment
and the controversial presidential library project as well as
deliberations at the National Political Reform Conference.
End Summary.

--------------
NIC REPORT IS BESTSELLER
--------------


1. In a May 24 letter to the Senate president transmitting
copies of the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) Report,
"Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa's Future," President Obasanjo
started a firestorm of legislative and media debate that has
lasted for more than two weeks. Released just days before
the start of Democracy Day (May 29) activities to mark his
inauguration and the return to civilian rule, reaction to the
NIC report quickly became a report card on the six years of
Obasanjo's administration and pushed stories about
presidential impeachment and the controversial presidential
library project off the front page. Reacting to the NIC
report's assertion that Nigeria could become a failed state
in 15 years, the report became an instant media sensation.
It was serialized in the Daily Trust, northern Nigeria's
leading newspaper and the Daily Independent, owned by the
Delta State governor. It was also the 6-page cover story,
"OBJ and America - What has gone wrong?," in the Weekly
Trust, companion paper to the Daily Trust. The widely read
papers such as the Guardian, This Day, and the Sun also
published many articles and opinion pieces.

--------------
OBASANJO DRAWS CRITICISM OVER NIC REPORT
--------------


2. In the Weekly Trust of May 28 - June 3, Garba Deen
Muhammad concluded that "The US sees clearly that there will
not be a level playing field in 2007. They know the danger
of ruling people against their will, and they sense that the
ingredients for enforced leadership are gathering. It is in
this light that we should view the diminishing stature of our
president before the international community. This perhaps
explains why the US chose to release the report in the manner
it did. It is a loud political statement to Obasanjo, not to
you and me."


3. In the Daily Independent of June 3, Ekeng Anam-Ndu
writes, "I see the government's unconditional condemnation of
the report as unfortunate. Rather than look at the report
dispassionately as an opportunity for national
self-appraisal, the President used the occasion to arrange a
truce with the National Assembly and possibly douse the
so-called impeachment threat."


4. Okey Ndibe's op-ed of June 2 in the Guardian wrote,
"Anyone who remains aghast that the American report would
take a dim view of Nigeria's prospects has only to recollect
a few of the moral and political blights that have befallen
Nigeria under President Obasanjo's watch. The world is aware
that on July 10, 2003, a group of men and women close to the
president organized the abduction of a state governor."

--------------
USE NIC REPORT TO FIX NIGERIA
--------------


5. Writing in the Sunday Punch of May 29, Doyin Abiola
described the report as "irritating" and "meddlesome," but
concluded, "we could use it as a wake-up call to clean up our
act to break the jinx before it becomes a self-fulfilling
prophecy."


6. In an op-ed piece in the Guardian of June 2, Oludimeji
Longe asserted, "The US intelligence report that Nigeria may
break up cannot be dismissed as a 'glib talk' but must be
accepted as 'verbum serpienti' and as a challenge to the
nation to mend fences where the 'blocks are loose.'"


7. In his "Public Sphere" column in the Sun newspaper of
June 3, Onuoha Ukeh expresses misgivings about intelligence
reports, citing lapses in Iraq, but concluded that, "Whatever
we think of the intelligence report, the government should be
grateful that the agency exposed what could have been an
undercurrent. If the government knows what is good for it, a
time has come for it to do more towards correcting the issues
highlighted in the intelligence report. To be sure, only
those who are blind to reality would deny that the threat to
the country is real. The government would be naive to
believe that many citizens are happy in the Nigerian union."


8. In a Guardian op-ed of June 5, Pat Utomi states, "Instead
of blaming others maybe it is time for us to begin to reflect
that if Nigeria collapses we all lose something and that
Nigeria cannot but collapse if we do not mend our ways, place
service at the centre of public life and reduce drastically
the level of conflicts of interest in the conduct of people
both in the public and private sectors."

9. The June 5 editorial in the Sunday Sun stated bluntly,
"Leaders should not fly off the handle with loud
chest-beating and self-congratulatory performance which the
followers do not enjoy. Instead, we urge all governments to
end the blanket sentimental tantrums, take the report
seriously and correct the imperfections which make the
experts' crystal ball gazing appear like a self-fulfilling
prophecy."

--------------
US PLAYS POLITICS WITH NIC REPORT
--------------


10. In the Daily Trust of May 30, Adagbo Onojo wrote, "The
Americans are doubting the future of the Nigerian state,
thereby strengthening the South African claim (for a UN
Security Council Seat). The American mindset is obviously
predicated on Egypt getting one of the seats and the second
one to South Africa whose level of capitalist development
rates them higher on (the) American scale of interests."


11. In the Daily Trust of May 31, columnist Ujudud Shariff
surmised that, "The US has perfected the art and science of
political intimidation to achieve its objectives. Apart from
the already cited harassment by the US, Nigeria especially
its predominant northern Muslims, are alleged to harbour
Al-Queeda sympathizers and is therefore a potential threat to
the US...the obvious strategy is to incite the (Nigerian)
government against the Muslims, especially those in the
north."

--------------
VALIDITY OF NIC REPORT QUESTIONED
--------------


12. Obi Nwakanma in the Sunday Vanguard of May 29 wrote, "A
few critiques of the US projections point to the fact that
its intelligence estimates have largely been unreliable given
the massive intelligence failure prior to Iraq and given that
this prediction is nothing new."


13. In his column in the Daily Independent of June 3, Ben
Oguntuase stated, "After reading the report several times
over, I saw in it more of challenges to governance than
calculated and potent psychological assault on Africa and
Nigeria in particular. There is always the possibility that
those who are not given to scenario planning would always see
conclusions and evaluations based on scenarios as the product
of wishful thinking. It is not always so."


14. Egbokhare Francis in the Sunday Tribune of June 5 wrote,
"I think honestly that Nigeria broke up years ago, and we are
only now trying to put it back together...The conflicts and
ethnic tensions, social inequalities, corruption,
assassinations, general discontent, murders, strife and
disrespect for law and order all point to a nation in
disarray. The reason this nation has not gone to war is
simply because it will not be in the interest of the West to
have war in Nigeria."

--------------
GON OVERREACTION TO NIC REPORT
--------------


15. In the Daily Trust of May 30, Issa Aremu stated, "When
there is a persistent hyper-reaction in response to a routine
pastime from Washington, DC., then it will not be out of
place to talk of an emerging affliction called Abuja
dependency syndrome."


16. Oghogho Obaywana emphasized the positive side of the
report in his Guardian op-ed of June 3, "Far from being a
document of doom, the recently released intelligence report
on the future of sub-Saharan Africa by the US National
Intelligence Council also outlined several critical success
factors for the survival of corporate entities such as
Nigeria."


17. COMMENT: While President Obasanjo's reasons for
releasing the NIC report are unknown, the unanticipated
consequence of his action is that debate over the report has
become a failing report card on his administration.




CAMPBELL