MEDIA REACTION: NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001086 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W, AF/PDPA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SOCI PINR OIIP OPRC KDEM NI SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL REPORT Begin Summary: The National Intelligence Council (NIC) Report, "Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa's Future, touched off a firestorm of debate in the National Assembly and in the media; overshadowing discussion of presidential impeachment and the controversial presidential library project as well as deliberations at the National Political Reform Conference. End Summary. -------------- NIC REPORT IS BESTSELLER -------------- ¶1. In a May 24 letter to the Senate president transmitting copies of the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) Report, "Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa's Future," President Obasanjo started a firestorm of legislative and media debate that has lasted for more than two weeks. Released just days before the start of Democracy Day (May 29) activities to mark his inauguration and the return to civilian rule, reaction to the NIC report quickly became a report card on the six years of Obasanjo's administration and pushed stories about presidential impeachment and the controversial presidential library project off the front page. Reacting to the NIC report's assertion that Nigeria could become a failed state in 15 years, the report became an instant media sensation. It was serialized in the Daily Trust, northern Nigeria's leading newspaper and the Daily Independent, owned by the Delta State governor. It was also the 6-page cover story, "OBJ and America - What has gone wrong?," in the Weekly Trust, companion paper to the Daily Trust. The widely read papers such as the Guardian, This Day, and the Sun also published many articles and opinion pieces. -------------- OBASANJO DRAWS CRITICISM OVER NIC REPORT -------------- ¶2. In the Weekly Trust of May 28 - June 3, Garba Deen Muhammad concluded that "The US sees clearly that there will not be a level playing field in 2007. They know the danger of ruling people against their will, and they sense that the ingredients for enforced leadership are gathering. It is in this light that we should view the diminishing stature of our president before the international community. This perhaps explains why the US chose to release the report in the manner it did. It is a loud political statement to Obasanjo, not to you and me." ¶3. In the Daily Independent of June 3, Ekeng Anam-Ndu writes, "I see the government's unconditional condemnation of the report as unfortunate. Rather than look at the report dispassionately as an opportunity for national self-appraisal, the President used the occasion to arrange a truce with the National Assembly and possibly douse the so-called impeachment threat." ¶4. Okey Ndibe's op-ed of June 2 in the Guardian wrote, "Anyone who remains aghast that the American report would take a dim view of Nigeria's prospects has only to recollect a few of the moral and political blights that have befallen Nigeria under President Obasanjo's watch. The world is aware that on July 10, 2003, a group of men and women close to the president organized the abduction of a state governor." -------------- USE NIC REPORT TO FIX NIGERIA -------------- ¶5. Writing in the Sunday Punch of May 29, Doyin Abiola described the report as "irritating" and "meddlesome," but concluded, "we could use it as a wake-up call to clean up our act to break the jinx before it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy." ¶6. In an op-ed piece in the Guardian of June 2, Oludimeji Longe asserted, "The US intelligence report that Nigeria may break up cannot be dismissed as a 'glib talk' but must be accepted as 'verbum serpienti' and as a challenge to the nation to mend fences where the 'blocks are loose.'" ¶7. In his "Public Sphere" column in the Sun newspaper of June 3, Onuoha Ukeh expresses misgivings about intelligence reports, citing lapses in Iraq, but concluded that, "Whatever we think of the intelligence report, the government should be grateful that the agency exposed what could have been an undercurrent. If the government knows what is good for it, a time has come for it to do more towards correcting the issues highlighted in the intelligence report. To be sure, only those who are blind to reality would deny that the threat to the country is real. The government would be naive to believe that many citizens are happy in the Nigerian union." ¶8. In a Guardian op-ed of June 5, Pat Utomi states, "Instead of blaming others maybe it is time for us to begin to reflect that if Nigeria collapses we all lose something and that Nigeria cannot but collapse if we do not mend our ways, place service at the centre of public life and reduce drastically the level of conflicts of interest in the conduct of people both in the public and private sectors." ¶9. The June 5 editorial in the Sunday Sun stated bluntly, "Leaders should not fly off the handle with loud chest-beating and self-congratulatory performance which the followers do not enjoy. Instead, we urge all governments to end the blanket sentimental tantrums, take the report seriously and correct the imperfections which make the experts' crystal ball gazing appear like a self-fulfilling prophecy." -------------- US PLAYS POLITICS WITH NIC REPORT -------------- ¶10. In the Daily Trust of May 30, Adagbo Onojo wrote, "The Americans are doubting the future of the Nigerian state, thereby strengthening the South African claim (for a UN Security Council Seat). The American mindset is obviously predicated on Egypt getting one of the seats and the second one to South Africa whose level of capitalist development rates them higher on (the) American scale of interests." ¶11. In the Daily Trust of May 31, columnist Ujudud Shariff surmised that, "The US has perfected the art and science of political intimidation to achieve its objectives. Apart from the already cited harassment by the US, Nigeria especially its predominant northern Muslims, are alleged to harbour Al-Queeda sympathizers and is therefore a potential threat to the US...the obvious strategy is to incite the (Nigerian) government against the Muslims, especially those in the north." -------------- VALIDITY OF NIC REPORT QUESTIONED -------------- ¶12. Obi Nwakanma in the Sunday Vanguard of May 29 wrote, "A few critiques of the US projections point to the fact that its intelligence estimates have largely been unreliable given the massive intelligence failure prior to Iraq and given that this prediction is nothing new." ¶13. In his column in the Daily Independent of June 3, Ben Oguntuase stated, "After reading the report several times over, I saw in it more of challenges to governance than calculated and potent psychological assault on Africa and Nigeria in particular. There is always the possibility that those who are not given to scenario planning would always see conclusions and evaluations based on scenarios as the product of wishful thinking. It is not always so." ¶14. Egbokhare Francis in the Sunday Tribune of June 5 wrote, "I think honestly that Nigeria broke up years ago, and we are only now trying to put it back together...The conflicts and ethnic tensions, social inequalities, corruption, assassinations, general discontent, murders, strife and disrespect for law and order all point to a nation in disarray. The reason this nation has not gone to war is simply because it will not be in the interest of the West to have war in Nigeria." -------------- GON OVERREACTION TO NIC REPORT -------------- ¶15. In the Daily Trust of May 30, Issa Aremu stated, "When there is a persistent hyper-reaction in response to a routine pastime from Washington, DC., then it will not be out of place to talk of an emerging affliction called Abuja dependency syndrome." ¶16. Oghogho Obaywana emphasized the positive side of the report in his Guardian op-ed of June 3, "Far from being a document of doom, the recently released intelligence report on the future of sub-Saharan Africa by the US National Intelligence Council also outlined several critical success factors for the survival of corporate entities such as Nigeria." ¶17. COMMENT: While President Obasanjo's reasons for releasing the NIC report are unknown, the unanticipated consequence of his action is that debate over the report has become a failing report card on his administration. CAMPBELL