UAE: LIMITED POLLS A PRELUDE TO DIRECT ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 004919

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ARPI, AND NEA/PPD
STATE ALSO FOR PA, R, IIP, AND DRL
LONDON FOR ELIZABETH MCKUNE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2010
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL PTER AE
SUBJECT: UAE: LIMITED POLLS A PRELUDE TO DIRECT ELECTIONS

REF: ABU DHABI 4905

Classified By: AMBASSADOR MICHELE J. SISON, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (U) Summary: The UAE's Supreme Ruling Council on December
3 endorsed President Sheikh Khalifa's reform initiative that
includes a plan for indirect elections of half of the Federal
National Council (FNC),with the other half being appointed.
President Khalifa also announced that the decision to elect
half the FNC membership is just a first step, and that direct
elections would follow. He specifically mentioned the
participation of women. The Supreme Ruling Council's other
significant decision was to set up a National Security
Council that will evaluate and respond to threats to the UAE.
End Summary.


2. (U) President Khalifa has elaborated on his reform plan
first unveiled December 1. He announced the following day
that the decision to elect half of the FNC's membership by
local councils in each emirate while appointing the second
half is just the first step in what would be a broader reform
policy. He said each emirate ruler in the seven emirates
will appoint a local council that will be at least 100 times
larger than its number of FNC seats. Thus, Abu Dhabi, with 8
FNC seats, will have a local council with at least 800
members. The local council of "super-electors" -- including
dignitaries, tribal chiefs and other influential figures in
society -- will then elect from either within or outside
their ranks half of the FNC. The Rulers of each emirate will
appoint the other half. Currently, Abu Dhabi and Dubai have
8 seats each, Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah six, and Ajman,
Fujairah, and Umm Al Qaiwain four. (Note: The UAEG had
announced December 1 that there would be a total of 2,000
members of local councils. Based on President Khalifa's
amplification, that number would be 4,000. End note.) In
the past, the Constitution left it up to the individual
emirates to select their respective FNC members.


3. (U) President Khalifa also announced that he would submit
a proposal to the FNC during its next session recommending
amendments to the UAE constitution. These amendments would
give greater power to the FNC, increase the FNC's membership
to match with the population increase, and lengthen
legislative terms. Khalifa specifically said that the
amendments were intended to prepare for direct elections. He
also said that he was looking forward to more reforms on
various levels of power. "The decision to introduce these
reforms stems from the firm conviction of the UAE leadership
on the importance of achieving wider and more effective
participation of the citizens, men and women, in the building
and development of the country," he said. (Note: The
president had not specifically mentioned direct elections or
the participation of women in his December 1 announcement.
End note.) The Supreme Ruling Council endorsed President
Khalifa's reform plan on December 3 and directed the
concerned authorities to immediately begin its implementation.


4. (U) The FNC is the UAE's primary consultative body and all
federal draft laws and decrees must go through it before they
are officially adopted by the Supreme Ruling Council. (Draft
legislation is prepared by the relevant UAEG ministry.)
While the FNC does not have the power to reject legislation,
it can send it back to the cabinet for amendment. The FNC
also has the authority to question any government minister.
Currently, the 40 FNC members serve two-year terms. The
timetable for the elections is not yet known, although UAE
officials quoted in the press have indicated that the process
of selecting local councils would start early next year. The
federal Cabinet will prepare a bill and send it to the FNC,
which upon approval will send it back to the Cabinet. The
Cabinet then forwards the bill to the president, who signs it
after ratification by the Supreme Ruling Council.


5. (C) For the first time since President Khalifa's December
1 announcement concerning the FNC membership selection
process, a few UAE political figures and academics have
expressed their reservations about the new reform plan.
Commenting on the decision to broaden political
participation, human rights activist/lawyer Mohammed Al Rukn
told us that as long as the FNC is not given more powers and
FNC members are not elected directly by the citizens, the
"so-called new process ... is a PR gesture." Al Rukn also
told "Gulf News" that voting rights should be granted to all
citizens and a "strong" legislative authority established.
Academic Mohammed bin Huwaidin told "Gulf News" that the
local councils experience "falls short of our aspirations for
direct elections." Habiba Al Marashi, an environmental
activist, was quoted by "Al Bayan" as saying that she hoped
the new council "will give UAE women their deserved rights so
that they can keep up with the developments regionally and
internationally." Ali Jassem, who has served in the FNC as a
representative from Umm Al Qaiwain Emirate for the past 12
years, told Ambassador December 4 that he intends to stand
for office again. Assuming he is selected, he said he plans
to stand up in the council chambers and ask some provocative
questions about the number of foreigners in the UAE, the
reason why there are two foreign ministers (a Minister of
Foreign Affairs and a Minister of State for Foreign Affairs),
and whether the president or someone else is running the
country.

A New National Security Council
--------------


6. (U) Also on December 3, the Supreme Ruling Council agreed
to establish a National Security Council. According to
statements from the UAE official news agency, the UAEG
studied how other countries addressed their national security
in order to find the best methods for the protection of the
UAE's security. "This step will boost the drive toward
institutionalization by bringing together all the concerned
bodies under one central agency that can handle current and
future challenges effectively," Interior Minister Sheikh Saif
bin Zayed said. The main function of the council would be to
"safeguard the UAE's accomplishments and preserve its
security and stability," he added. There were no details
about who would be named the new national security czar.

Democracy Developments on Other Fronts
--------------


7. (U) As the headlines heralded the UAE's "march towards
full democratic participation" ("Gulf News" Dec. 3) and "UAE
is at the threshold of a new era" (&Gulf News" Dec. 2),Abu
Dhabi residents gazed up at new billboards of candidates
contesting the Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce and Industry's
first-ever board elections, which were scheduled for December

5. Approximately 50,000 members of the chamber were to elect
15 members in a direct ballot, the first-ever elections to
the chamber board.


8. (U) On December 5, the "Gulf News" reported an interview
with a senior Education Ministry official who said that,
starting next year, democracy would be part of the elementary
school curriculum. Once children are in the sixth grade,
they will receive more practical training by forming a model
parliament where they will "learn the skills of debate and
accepting others' opinions," said Obaid Al Muhairi, director
of education and curriculum development center at the
Ministry of Education.

Comment:
--------------


9. (C) Khalifa's public statement that direct elections are
where the UAE is headed is a positive development. While the
announced reforms are not equivalent to a one-person, one
vote election system, it is an important first step in
introducing Emirati nationals to the electoral process in
anticipation of genuine democratic reforms. These gradual
developments are ushering in a new openness, such as the
questions FNC veteran Ali Jassem said he would raise if
selected to the FNC )- questions mostly unheard of before
President Sheikh Zayed's death.
SISON