IRAQ'S CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM -- VIEWS FROM UAE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABU DHABI 004305 SIPDIS STATE FOR S/I AND NEA/I, NEA/ARPI, NEA/PPD E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ TC SUBJECT: IRAQ'S CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM -- VIEWS FROM UAE AND FROM AN IRAQI DIPLOMAT REF: A. ABU DHABI 4261 ¶B. ABU DHABI 4200 Classified By: MARTIN R. QUINN, CHARGE D'AFFAIRES, A.I., REASONS 1.4 (B ) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Sheikh Hamdan bin Zayed (HbZ) confirmed to Charge October 11 that he had positive meetings with Iraqi parliament speaker Hajim al-Hassani, Sunni Waqf (Endowment) leader Ahmed al-Ghaffour al-Samarrai, and former Sunni Waqf leader Adnan al-Dulaimi in Abu Dhabi last week. As HbZ promised October 2 when he met with U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad (refs A, B),the UAE leadership was working to get "responsible people to work together" on the political process in Iraq. These efforts are to "ensure that the Iraqi Government does not fall under Iranian domination," he told Charge. HbZ said it was clear to him that the present government in Iraq was more pro-Iranian than pro-Iraqi. To prove his point, he cited the fact that the response to Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal's remarks about Iranian interference in Iraq came from Iraq's Interior Minister (a Shi'a),rather than from Iran. Fear of Iraq falling under Iranian influence is a concern UAE officials have regularly expressed. ¶2. (C) There were several other Iraq-related items that came to the Embassy's attention in the run-up to the constitutional referendum on October 15: -- The Dubai-based Gulf Research Center, a think tank headed by Saudi millionaire Dr. Abdulaziz Sager, has posted an opinion poll on its web site that asks readers if they believe the Iraqi draft constitution will be approved by the majority of the Iraqi people. As of this writing, the results show 71.4% saying no, 18.4% yes, and 10.2% maybe. The poll, which first appeared a week ago and includes responses from approximately 100 readers, reflects the views of academics and research institutions, GRC researcher Dr. Mustafa Alani told Pol Chief. Alani, a Sunni Arab born in Baghdad, called the draft constitution a "very dangerous document that will have an impact not only on Iraq but on the region." He warned that federalism will divide -) and eventually destroy )- Iraq. "Academics understand the constitution,s contents and believe it is not an acceptable document," he added. -- Based on a ruling by the Iraqi Government, the 50,000-60,000 Iraqis who reside in the UAE will not be allowed to vote in the referendum. They will, however, be allowed to vote for 45 of the 275 seats in the parliament during the December 15 elections. -- The Iraqi Embassy in Abu Dhabi does not have an official copy of the draft constitution on its premises. Iraqi diplomats have been able to consult the draft online, however. -- The Iraqi MFA does not inform the Iraqi Embassy in Abu Dhabi in advance of visits by prominent Iraqis, such as parliament speaker al-Hassani, and current and former Sunni Waqf leaders al-Samarrai and al-Dulaimi. "We read about it in the newspaper after they have left town," complained Counselor Mustafa Aboud, the Embassy's No. 2, who spoke with Pol Chief October 12. (Note: When S/I Ambassador Jeffrey was in Abu Dhabi October 8, we inquired with the Iraqi Embassy about possible meetings with prominent visiting Iraqis. The Iraqi Embassy was not aware of the visits. End note.) Aboud, a Sunni Arab from al-Dawr ("I'm from where Saddam was captured") who joined the Iraqi foreign service 30 years ago, said it was difficult to predict which way the constitutional referendum would go. He expressed the hope that the different Iraqi political groups would find a way to reconcile and bring back stability to the country. He said the U.S. could do two things to ameliorate the situation in Iraq: (1) urge influential Sunnis to dialogue with the Iraqi Government, and (2) help Sunnis forced by the U.S.-led coalition to leave their civil service or military jobs after the fall of Saddam's regime to return to gainful employment. These measures would "close the gap" between the ruling group and the Sunnis, he said, and serve to isolate Zarqawi, "a man who has no place in Iraq." QUINN