DISCUSSION OF POLITICAL REFORM IN UAE STARTS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABU DHABI 001002 SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ARPI, NEA/PI, AND DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2015 TAGS: KDEM PGOV KMPI TC SUBJECT: DISCUSSION OF POLITICAL REFORM IN UAE STARTS TO PERCOLATE REF: A. ABU DHABI 908 ¶B. 04 ABU DHABI 3210 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The UAE is now the only state in the Gulf without elected bodies. However, discussion is starting to percolate in the UAE media and in private settings about the potential for political reforms in the country, including the possibility of holding elections at the local and federal levels, and allowing women to serve in a strengthened federal representative body. Information Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed told the Ambassador on March 2 that the Federal Supreme Council (composed of the rulers of the seven emirates) would in the near future discuss representational government. In February, the Ruler of the emirate of Sharjah appointed municipal councils and announced that these councils could one day be elected. Ajman emirate is considering establishing a consultative council, though it has not gone as far as suggesting that it would be elected. Some observers believe these developments in Sharjah and Ajman could be a prelude to eventual changes at the Federal National Council (FNC),which remains an appointed body without real legislative power. ¶2. (C) Summary continued: Elections in Iraq, the West Bank and Gaza, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman have contributed significantly to the current discussion about reforms in the UAE. However, UAE nationals are adamant that change is unacceptable if imposed by outsiders. Federal elections, if and when they occur, would almost certainly not affect senior posts, such as president, vice president, and prime minister, all of which are held by members of Abu Dhabi,s and Dubai,s ruling families. End Summary. CALLS FOR REPRESENTATIVE GOVERNMENT... -------------- ¶3. (C) In the past few weeks, there has been a lively public discussion, widely reported in the media, about the need for democratic reforms in the UAE. Led by newspaper columnists and academics, and even live talk shows on Dubai TV, the debate about reform is being fueled by political developments elsewhere in the region, including democratic elections in Iraq, the West Bank and Gaza, and the Gulf, and growing opposition to Syria,s continued military occupation of Lebanon. &With elections being held in Saudi Arabia, the UAE will be the only country in the region that does not have elections,8 Saeed Hareb, vice chancellor for community affairs and law professor at the UAE University in Al Ain, told Pol Chief on February 28. &It is strange that Iraqis were registering and voting in the UAE for their country,s election, and yet UAE citizens do not have the right to vote,8 Hareb said. A constitutional scholar, Hareb said he often reminds his law students and others that the introduction to the UAE Constitution makes clear the UAE founding fathers, commitment to democracy (the Constitution preamble states that the Constitution should be used to &move forward toward comprehensive democratic parliamentary governance, in an Arab Islamic society free of fear and worry8). ¶4. (C) In the midst of this debate about political reform, Sheikh Sultan bin Mohammed Al Qasimi, the Ruler of Sharjah emirate, announced February 22 the formation of nine appointed municipal councils in Sharjah, and added that these councils were a prelude to direct municipal elections (Dubai septel to follow). Within days, Ajman emirate announced it was considering establishing a consultative council. &Sheikh Sultan threw a stone in the lake and now we are seeing the waves,8 Dr. Sulaiman Al Jassim, an Abu Dhabi academic and political observer, told Pol Chief February 28. Brigadier Saeed Juma Al Qasimi, former director of the Al Ain Civil Defense Department, praised Sharjah,s ruler, calling the decision to have municipal councils in Sharjah &a good step, whereas having them via elections in the future reflects the Ruler,s vision and wisdom.8 Brig. Al Qasimi said he hoped the other emirates would follow Sharjah,s initiative. ¶5. (C) Information Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed told the Ambassador on March 2 that the Supreme Council, which comprises the seven rulers of the emirates and is the highest federal authority in the UAE, would be meeting in the near future to discuss representational government. The rulers of Fujairah and Ajman have paid calls on President Khalifa bin Zayed in recent days, a pattern similar to what we saw ahead of last November,s Cabinet reshuffle. These consultations with the other emirates could be a sign that Abu Dhabi,s ruling Al Nahyan family is launching the slow process of building a consensus on opening up the political space. ...GO BACK THREE DECADES -------------- ¶6. (C) The idea of electing public officials is not new in the UAE. In the 1970s, Ajman emirate had several councils whose heads were elected by the general public. Before his father replaced him as his heir apparent in June 2003, Ras Al Khaimah Crown Prince Sheikh Khalid bin Saqr Al Qasimi had openly suggested that UAE citizens be allowed to vote for FNC members. (Note: Some analysts believe that Sheikh Khalid,s outspoken support of the idea of political liberalization was a factor in his father,s decision to remove him from the succession line. End note.) Nevertheless, Sheikh Saud, who replaced Sheikh Khalid as Crown Prince, told Ambassador February 28 that he and his elderly father (Sheikh Saqr bin Mohammed Al Qasimi) were not opposed to the idea of municipal elections, and viewed the need to broaden the political space in the context of the new generation of Emiratis. Sheikh Saud said he believed it was a good idea to allow smaller emirates like Ajman and Sharjah demonstrate first what &they could do8 with elections. Elections of FNC members will be held one day as well, he predicted, without suggesting a timeframe. In April 2003, Dubai had announced its intent to establish elected district councils, but, as reported Ref. B, Dubai,s Al Maktoum leadership quietly dropped the idea amid concerns about the possible effect on stability that a direct election, even a local one, might have. Mohammed Al Abbar, CEO of Dubai,s top real estate development company, told DCM February 20 that the Dubai leadership had not laid the groundwork for elections )- either within Dubai or with Abu Dhabi. CHANGE IS NEEDED, BUT IT TAKES TIME -------------- ¶7. (C) &This talk of elections in our country is not new,8 said Dr. Yousef Al Hassan, director of the Institute for Diplomatic Studies at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told Pol Chief February 23. Al Hassan, who supports the idea of opening up the political space as long as it is not done in haste, encouraged USG officials to raise democracy in their ongoing dialogue with UAEG officials, but in the context of what is happening elsewhere in the region. &Don,t impose anything on the UAE. Just talk to the rulers about what,s taking place in Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, and they will get the message,8 Al Hassan said. Academic Al Jassim agreed with this approach. &We love our rulers. They take care of us. And they want change. But all of us want the change to be homegrown so that we can take ownership of it,8 he said. ¶8. (C) UAE University,s Saeed Hareb also counseled against pressing too rapidly for reforms. &It,s like medicine. You have to give it in small doses.8 At the same time, the UAE leadership would be unwise to prevent political reform, since that would risk forcing any opposition &underground.8 The rulers of the UAE also know that if they grant people,s wishes too quickly, the citizens will demand even more, he said. He stressed the importance of offering civic education not only to school students but to community groups as well. &It is important to plant the seeds of democracy at an early age8 as a way to prepare Emiratis to assume their responsibilities, Hareb added. Writing in the semi-government Arabic daily Al Ittihad on February 16, journalist Mohammed Al Hammadi makes the case that while the sheikhs may be taking care of the population today, everyone needs to think about, and prepare for, the future. Elections can be a vehicle for ensuring the broadest possible representation in society, he said, and should not be viewed as a &forbidden8 activity. &It,s better to arrive late than not at all,8 he writes. The UAE can learn from the experiences of other countries. When Pol Chief commented favorably to Al Hammadi on February 28 on his weekly column in which he discusses democratization, Al Hammadi replied that he writes what he wants -- except for criticism of the ruling families. A FAVORITE TARGET: THE FEDERAL NATIONAL COUNCIL -------------- -- ¶9. (C) When academics and journalists talk about reforming the UAE Government and introducing elections, the FNC is the institution they most focus on. The FNC,s 40 members are appointed by the Rulers of the seven emirates, with numbers allocated in proportion to their population, to serve two-year terms. This federal institution has little more than a consultative function, since it can review and amend, but not block legislation proposed by the federal Council of Ministers. However, as we have witnessed firsthand, ministers can be called before the FNC for questions on their performance. For some older generation Emiratis like Awad Al Otaiba, a senior official in the Ministry of Energy, the very fact that FNC members can grill ministers is proof enough that constituents have a voice. &We already have democracy,8 he asserted to Pol Chief February 24. But most academics and journalists expressing their views about the FNC of late believe the existing &parliament8 does not represent the public at large. ¶10. (C) Ali Jassim Ahmed, an FNC member from Umm Al Qaiwain emirate, told Pol Chief March 1 that there had been six draft proposals for amending the UAE Constitution to change the way FNC members were selected, but that there were &certain parties,8 including conservative elements in UAE society, who were not in favor of change. &It is good to start talking about elections. We hope that this will succeed.8 He was one of several FNC members and staff who traveled to the United States last September on a Special International Visitor program to observe democratic bodies at the state and federal level. Academic Sulaiman Al Jassim said that the role of the FNC should be strong and effective in order for federal institutions to be stronger than local ones. ¶11. (C) The FNC was established in 1972, and its members are distributed as follows: Abu Dhabi and Dubai ) 8 members each, Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah ) 6 members each, Umm Al Qaiwain, Ajman, and Fujairah ) 4 members each. The UAE Constitution states that the selection of members is up to each ruler. None of our contacts, whether journalists, academics, or FNC members themselves, believes that individual emirates will step out of line and start selecting members in a manner different from the other emirates. &You can,t fly with one wing,8 said UAE University,s Hareb. The consensus is that the FNC either will remain an appointed body, or it will become an elected body with the consent of all the rulers. Federal elections, if and when they occur, would almost certainly not affect senior posts, such as president, vice president, and prime minister, all of which are traditionally held by members of Abu Dhabi,s and Dubai,s ruling families. ¶12. (C) In a February 22 op-ed in Al Khaleej newspaper, UAE University professor Dr. Abdulkhaleq Abdullah described the current practice of appointing FNC members as &anachronistic.8 He criticized the FNC for failing to adapt to changes and for not representing public sentiments adequately (ref A). The FNC comes under fire even from within its ranks because it cannot propose a law. Its role is to discuss draft laws submitted to it; the government can pass any law even if it is rejected unanimously by the FNC. Dr. Habib Al Mulla, an FNC member from Dubai, called for the FNC to have the power to propose laws and discuss public issues without permission from the Cabinet, according to quotes attributed to him by the Gulf News. (Al Mulla subsequently told CG Dubai that he had been embarrassed by the article; he declined to elaborate further.) Mohammed bin Ali Al Nagbi, an FNC member from Ras Al Khaimah, told Khaleej Times newspaper that he was against the idea of an election, but he said he would support it as long as the idea came from within and was not imposed in response to external pressure. HOW LONG WILL THE FNC REMAIN CLOSED TO WOMEN? -------------- ¶13. (C) Opinion is divided on the question of whether to allow women to become FNC members. Some conservatives and Islamists do not support opening up membership to women. Moderate and liberal academics and journalists blame the conservatives for excluding women to date, despite repeated calls by Sheikha Fatima (the widow of the late President Sheikh Zayed) urging a greater role for women in the political arena. That said, the stock answer we get from most quarters when asked when women will finally be admitted to the FNC is that &things take time8 in the UAE; in any event, the decision on whether to appoint women will lie with the individual rulers, some of whom have indicated that they intend to do so when the opportunity next arises. Al Ittihad newspaper,s Al Hammadi, who covered the FNC for six years, said the institution is definitely in need of change, but acknowledged that change is likely to be slow in coming. He predicted that women would have to wait at least another year before one of the emirates, rulers appoints them to a seat. ¶14. (C) General Women,s Union director general, Noura Al Suweidi, has told us that about a year before Sheikh Zayed died, her organization had submitted a list of women candidates to him for his consideration. There has been no action taken since. The possibility of women being appointed to the FNC is still &talk, promises, and aspiration,8 lamented Ahlam Al Lamki, director of research and studies at the General Women,s Union, when Pol Assistant asked her March 1 about the issue of including women in the FNC. She said the women,s organization had hoped that women would have been appointed by the time the new session starts this spring, but that has not happened. ¶15. (C) A number of our contacts spoke of a quota of FNC seats being set aside for women, with Hareb stating that he had heard that a one-third quota of seats might be under consideration. A quota for women would guarantee them seats in the legislative body, something that the current system of appointments, or a potential general election, would not. The General Women,s Union,s Al Lamki told us that the organization had not heard of a proposal for a quota for women members. (Note: Seven women serve on the Sharjah Consultative Council, which advises the Sharjah Ruler, and two women are among the 88 members of the new municipal councils. Women do not serve on any of the other emirates, governing or consultative bodies. End note.) ¶16. (C) Our contacts told us that Sheikha Lubna Al Qassimi,s appointment last November as Minister of Economy and Planning was highly significant for women. Besides providing a role model for other UAE women, Sheikha Lubna,s appointment paves the way for women who aspire to careers in government. &There are many Sheikha Lubnas out there,8 asserted Saeed Hareb of UAE University. &At UAE University, 90 percent of my female colleagues are better than men,8 he added. Academic Al Jassim said that women and men should participate side by side. Women are educated, and they have a ministerial position, so why shouldn,t they join the FNC as well as other federal institutions? he asked. Comment: -------------- ¶17. (C) The pace of political reform in the UAE is slow. We don,t expect change will happen soon. Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed told the Ambassador September 16 that the UAE had hired a U.S. consultant to explore ways the country could broaden the political participation of its citizenry. The debate about political reform among academics and journalists is under way, and this first step is a positive development. The government is doing the right thing by allowing broad )- and critical -- media coverage. Post will seek to advance this nascent process and MEPI political reform goals through civil society support, NGO strengthening, legislative staff training, equipping women with skills and techniques to use in advocacy and electoral campaigns, developing an independent media, and, eventually, elections assistance. SISON