CROATIA: ON THE ROAD TO EU MEMBERSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000932

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2012
TAGS: PGOV HR
SUBJECT: CROATIA: ON THE ROAD TO EU MEMBERSHIP

Classified By: DCM Patrick Moon for reasons 1.5(b) and (d).

Summary
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1. (C) Croatia is clearly headed toward being named a
candidate for EU membership at the June 17-18 EU Summit.
However, we expect that the EU leaders will postpone a
decision on setting a date to begin accession negotiations
for a range of reasons, not all related to Croatia. Italy,
Slovenia and the UK have Croatia-specific concerns (ICTY and
maritime sovereignty issues) while other members are
reportedly concerned about enlargement fatigue and linkages
to Turkey's status. End Summary.

SAA Ratifications and the Avis
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2. (SBU) When the European Commission presented a positive
avis on Croatia on April 20, Croatian political leaders from
all parties congratulated themselves on successfully
achieving a key goal on the path to EU membership. The
positive avis was in question up until only a few days
earlier when ICTY Chief Prosecutor Carla del Ponte sent a
glowing report to the EC citing Croatia,s full cooperation
with the Tribunal. As as result, the Netherlands has now
sent forward its ratification, and the UK has started the
process with every prospect, according the British DCM, of
ratifying the document before the EU Council meets June
17-18. According to our contacts here, the UK has not
changed its views on Gotovina and holds the GOC responsible
for the indictee,s transfer to the ICTY.

Pre-Accession Negotiations
--------------


3. (C) Our colleagues from EU embassies are telling us that
although the EU Council will certainly endorse the positive
avis and accept Croatia as a candidate for membership, it
will be in no hurry to set a date to begin negotiations. We
are told to expect the Council, for various reasons, to put
off a decision on setting a date to begin accession
negotiations until at least the next summit in December and
possibly until 2005. While the UK would argue that
negotiations should not begin before Gotovina is in The
Hague, other members are focused on issues such as Turkey,
maritime sovereignty in the Adriatic, and enlargement
fatigue.


4. (C) It now looks as though only Italy will not have
ratified Croatia,s SAA by the time of the June Summit.
According to the Italian DCM, Rome is reluctant because of
lack of progress in resolving issues related to Croatia,s
unilateral declaration last year of an exclusive ecological
and fisheries zone in the Adriatic. The Italian DCM and
Slovenian Ambassador told us that Croatia has been inflexible
and in no mood for compromise in three rounds of trilateral
talks on the zone. The Italian DCM said this was
disappointing since it was clear that Croatia would
eventually have to accept changes on use of the Adriatic as
part of the EU accession process. The Slovenian Ambassador
criticized Croatia for its failure to engage on the basis of
methods common among EU members for resolving disputes.


5. (C) The Italian DCM specifically rejected any linkage
between Rome,s ratification of the SAA (or related issues)
and the still unresolved bilateral issues on property
restitution to Italians who left Croatia at the end of WWII.
Despite several rounds of negotiations, Croatia still had
not engaged seriously, and Rome was frustrated with Croatia's
failure to address Italian concerns. While the DCM asserted
that this issue would be treated outside the EU accession
process, most observers and the Croatian press believe Italy
is indeed linking progress on the property restitution issue
to Italian support in the EU.


6. (C) Given the GOC,s near total focus on EU membership, we
are surprised to learn that the MFA has kept the Italians and
Slovenians at arms length on the maritime issues since either
Italy or Slovenia could block further progress in Brussels.
While the relative newness of the Sanader government may be
to blame for the lack of progress on these issues, we also
suspect that the HDZ,s nationalistic proclivities may be a
more likely explanation for the lack of progress.


7. (C) Unfortunately, lack of progress in Italy,s
discussions with Croatia on the property restitution issues
may be affecting efforts by the U.S., Austria and others to
negotiate bilateral agreements with the GOC to provide the
basis for former Croatians to seek restitution for property
seized since WWII. The GOC may be concerned that Italy might
use any deal Croatia signs with another country against
Zagreb to press for compromises on the more complicated and
politically sensitive Italian claims.


8. (C) The Political Counselor at the EC Mission underscored
with us that the Commission,s green light represents just
one small step in what promises to be a long drawn out
process. He dismissed any concern that a positive stance on
the avis now would serve to reduce any leverage Brussels has
over Croatia, particularly with respect to delivering
Gotovina to The Hague. In fact, the EC,s leverage &goes
up,8 he said. Brussels can apply the brakes anytime it
deems appropriate. It would be unfair, he added, to insist
that all &outstanding issues8 with Croatia had to be
resolved before offering a positive judgment on the avis.
Croatia has been a success story in the region, and not to
acknowledge this success would have been the wrong message
for the other countries and not have served the reform
process.

Comment
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9. (C) Sanader (and virtually all other political figures)
will be very pleased with the June EU summit decision on
Croatia,s candidacy as it definitively opens the door to
membership and, importantly, to pre-accession funds from
Brussels. Possibly anticipating an EU decision to postpone a
decision on beginning pre-accession negotiations, Sanader has
been downplaying the importance of attaining membership as
soon as possible (2007 is the target most often cited
publicly). This expectation-lowering approach is a prudent
exercise for the savvy Sanader. The accession process will
be fraught with difficult political decisions for the GOC and
unpopular changes to domestic policies. As many of the other
new EU members discovered during the accession process, you
have to be careful what you wish for.
FRANK


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