CROATIAN PRESS REPORTS NEW ICTY INDICTMENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000380 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR S/WCI AND EUR/SCE THE HAGUE FOR KAYE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2008 TAGS: PGOV PREL KAWC SUBJECT: CROATIAN PRESS REPORTS NEW ICTY INDICTMENTS CLASSIFIED BY: DCM PATRICK S. MOON FOR REASON 1.5 (B, D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) THE CROATIAN PRESS IS WIDELY REPORTING THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF CROATIA HAS RECEIVED NEW SEALED ICTY INDICTMENTS FROM THE HAGUE TRIBUNAL. THE GOVERNMENT IS REFUSING TO COMMENT, BUT THE PRESS CITES THAT SANADER AND OTHER HDZ LEADERS ARE WORKING HARD TO MANAGE POLITICAL FALLOUT BEFORE THE INDICTMENTS ARE MADE PUBLIC. THE GOC RECOGNIZES THAT ITS COOPERATION WITH THE TRIBUNAL WILL BE UNDER THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S MICROSCOPE; SANADER'S GOVERNMENT KNOWS THAT DECISIONS ABOUT CROATIA'S SUITABILITY AS AN EU CANDIDATE WILL DEPEND ON HIS ACTIONS. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) ON MARCH 5, ALL OF THE CROATIAN PRESS REPORTED THAT NEW INDICTMENTS AGAINST MLADEN MARKAC AND IVAN CERMAK HAD BEEN HANDED DOWN BY THE ICTY PROSECUTOR AND THAT THEY HAD BEEN DELIVERED UNDER SEAL TO THE GOC OFFICE FOR COOPERATION WITH ICTY ON FEBRUARY 26. THE FACT OF THE INDICTMENTS HAS BECOME AN OPEN SECRET IN ZAGREB, BUT GOC LEADERS REFUSE TO COMMENT OR SPECULATE ON THE RECORD. INDICTMENTS AGAINST MARKAC AND CERMAK FOR THEIR ACTIVITIES DURING AND AFTER "OPERATION STORM" IN NOVEMBER 1995 HAVE BEEN EXPECTED IN ZAGREB SINCE JANUARY. ¶3. (SBU) PM SANADER REPORTEDLY BRIEFED PRESIDENT MESIC ABOUT THE INDICTMENTS ON MARCH 1. MESIC IN TURN BRIEFED FORMER PM RACAN (NOW LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION) ON MARCH 2. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, SANADER HAS ALSO DISCUSSED THE INDICTMENTS WITH ANTO DJAPIC, LEADER OF THE EXTREME NATIONALIST CROATIAN PARTY OF RIGHT (HSP) IN ORDER TO TEMPER THE HSP REACTION AND THEREBY COVER THE GOVERNMENT'S NATIONALIST POLITICAL FLANK. THE PRESS REPORTS THAT SANADER WANTS THE TWO INDICTEES TO ANNOUNCE THE INDICTMENTS THEMSELVES, AT THE SAME TIME AS THEY PUBLICLY AGREE TO TRAVEL TO THE HAGUE TO ANSWER THE CHARGES. THE GOVERNMENT WILL REPORTEDLY OFFER THE COURT THE SAME "GUARANTEES" FOR MARKAC AND CERMAK WHICH IT GAVE ON BEHALF OF ICTY INDICTEE RAHIM ADEMI, WHO WAS RELEASED BY ICTY TO AWAIT TRIAL AT HOME IN CROATIA. ¶4. (SBU) CERMAK IS ALREADY ON THE PUBLIC RECORD AS DECLARING HIS READINESS TO GO THE HAGUE IF INDICTED. IN A RECENT PRESS INTERVIEW CERMAK NOTED THAT HE HAD ALREADY BEEN "INTERVIEWED" BY ICTY INVESTIGATORS. HE TOLD THE PRESS THAT HE "WOULD CONTINUE TO COOPERATE WITH THE HAGUE" SO AS "NOT TO CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR HIS HOMELAND," A CLEAR REFERENCE TO THE DAMAGE TO CROATIA'S EU BID CAUSED BY ICTY PIFWC ANTE GOTOVINA'S FUGITIVE STATUS. INDICTMENTS AGAINST BOSNIAN CROATS -------------- ¶6. (SBU) CROATIA'S PRESS REPORTS THAT ICTY INDICTMENTS HAVE BEEN HANDED DOWN ON THREE BOSNIAN CROATS, MILIVOJ PETKOVIC, JADRANKO PRLIC AND SLOBODAN PRALJAK, ALL FOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE WAR IN BIH. PETKOVIC AND PRALJAK WERE HVO COMMANDERS AND PRLIC WAS PRESIDENT OF THE SHORT-LIVED PSEUDO-STATE OF HERCEG-BOSNA. PRALJAK AND PETKOVIC BOTH RESIDE IN ZAGREB. PETKOVIC IS CURRENTLY THE INSPECTOR GENERAL OF THE CROATIAN ARMY AND PRALJAK (WHO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DESTRUCTION OF THE ANCIENT MOSTAR BRIDGE) IS A BUSINESSMAN PROMINENT IN ZAGREB HIGH SOCIETY. WHILE THESE THREE INDICTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE LESS POLITICALLY SENSITIVE -- THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAR IN BOSNIA AND NOT WITH THE RECAPTURE OF CROATIAN TERRITORY IN "OPERATION STORM" -- THEY WILL ALSO PRESENT POLITICAL CHALLENGES TO THE SANADER GOVERNMENT. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) WHILE THESE INDICTMENTS PRESENT A POLITICAL CHALLENGE TO THE SANADER GOVERNMENT, THEY ALSO PRESENT AN IMPORTANT OPPORTUNITY. SANADER HAS BEEN SEEKING TO CONVINCE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY -- AND PARTICULARLY EU DECISIONMAKERS -- THAT HIS GOVERNMENT IS DOING ALL IT CAN TO COOPERATE FULLY WITH THE ICTY, DESPITE CROATIA'S FAILURE TO APPREHEND AND TRANSFER GOTOVINA. IF SANADER CAN "DELIVER" ON THE NEW SET OF INDICTMENTS, HIS ARGUMENT ON GOTOVINA WILL BE STRENGTHENED. QUICK AND DECISIVE ACTION COULD ALSO OVERCOME SPECIFIC BRITISH AND DUTCH RESERVATIONS THAT ARE BLOCKING CROATIA'S EU CANDIDACY. FRANK NNNN