PRESIDENT MESIC KICKS UP DUST ON EUCOM MEMORANDUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 002002

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR EUR/SCE:KABUMOTO AND BELL, EUR/RPM:SHINAGEL
EUCOM FOR ECJF-E:CAPELLO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2014
TAGS: PREL MARR KTIA PINR HR NATO
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT MESIC KICKS UP DUST ON EUCOM MEMORANDUM
OF UNDERSTANDING


Classified By: Poloff Justin Friedman, reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) President Mesic has kicked up some political dust
over the EUCOM Memorandum of Understanding (signed in July)
on using Croatian facilities and airspace for bilateral
military
exercises. Without objecting to the substance of the MoU,
Mesic's office has asserted publicly that it was not
informed about the MoU until it came up for Sabor
ratification late last week. Our understanding is that
lead negotiator Assistant Minister of Defense for Policy
Jelena Grcic-Polic was keeping Mesic's office in the loop.
However, it is possible that in the finalization of the MoU
text, the internal clearance process inside the GoC may
have fallen short of the spirit, if not necessarily the
letter of the regulations. Mesic may be trying to use
the uproar to throw some dirt on the ruling HDZ party and,
indirectly, on HDZ Presidential candidate Jadranka Kosor.
Parliamentary ratification of the standard agreement is not
seriously in doubt. END SUMMARY and COMMENT.

NOT IN THE LOOP?
--------------


2. (SBU) President Mesic's office touched off a small
political dust storm with the public assertion over the
weekend that his office was not consulted before the
Ministry of Defense signed a Memorandum of Understanding
with EUCOM over the use of Croatian facilities and airspace
for military exercises. On national television news on
November 16, Mesic positioned himself above the fray,
saying that he would have his staff review the MoU and the
process leading up to its signing, but would not interfere
in the Parliamenary ratification process if legal procedures
had been followed.


3. (C) Assitant Military Advisor to President Mesic, Maj.
Robert Baric, confirmed for us the press reports that the
President's office believes it was not fully consulted in
the run up to the MoU signing.

WHO IS THE TARGET?
--------------


4. (C) Press reports have focused on the fact that the MoU
was signed by Grcic-Polic. Although Grcic-Polic was a key
MoD office official in the previous coalition government,
she is one of the few senior officials to stay in
government when the HDZ assumed power last winter and may
be perceived as too pro-U.S. Our experience with
Grcic-Polic is that she is a tough negotiator and an
effective, if prickly advocate for Croatian interests. We
have heard rumors of Grcic-Polic's departure from the MoD
since this summer when she was short-listed to be Croatia's
Ambassador to Brussels. However, President Mesic appeared
to have nixed her nomination. In the end, Grcic-Polic may
be just collateral damage as she is seen as close to
Foreign Minister Miomir Zuzul, in part from her previous
diplomatic service.


5. (C) Mesic's real target may be the HDZ and its
presidential candidate, Jadranka Kosor. Some press
commentators have picked up on this tiff as further
evidence that the HDZ is too eager to kowtow to the U.S. as
compensation for not delivering on pre-election promises of
sending troops to Iraq or an Article 98 agreement. In the
last week, Mesic has dropped his non-party,
president-of-the-people stance and alligned himself with
the SDP, HSS, and LIBRA opposition parties, as well as with
his own former party, the HNS. Mesic is still polling
above 50% with Kosor trailing far behind in second place
with just 20% support.

RATIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY
--------------


6. (C) On substance, the MoU is a standard,
non-controversial document. In a press conference November
16, former Defense Minister and opposition MP Zelka
Antunovic only questioned the fact that the MoU had not
been made public although it is not confidential.
Pointedly, Antunovic did not challenge the substance or
need for the MoU. This current dust up may slow
ratification of the MoU, but MoD sources indicate ratification
is not in jeopardy.
DELAWIE


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