CROATIA'S NATO STRATEGY: READY TO OPEN MEMBERSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 001529

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE-KABUMOTO, EUR/RPM-SHINAGEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2014
TAGS: PREL MARR HR NATO
SUBJECT: CROATIA'S NATO STRATEGY: READY TO OPEN MEMBERSHIP
NEGOTIATIONS IN 1-2 YEARS

Classified By: Poloff Justin Friedman, reasons 1.5 (b) & (d)

Summary and Comment
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1. (C) In a wide-ranging meeting on August 25, Croatia's
National NATO Coordinator Pjer Simunovic told us that the
soon-to-be finished Strategic Defense Review will drive a new
long term vision for the Croatian armed forces based on the
premise that Croatia should be prepared for NATO membership,
regardless of NATO's timing for accession. The GoC will
invite ministers from Serbia and Montenegro, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Italy, and Turkey to observe the November 12
Adriatic Charter Partnership Commission meeting, and attend a
November 13-14 follow-on session. Simunovic stressed that
the GoC sees its niche operational role within NATO as
providing military police, such as the unit currently serving
in Afghanistan. He also mentioned the possibility of
providing special forces, combat engineering, and medical
units to NATO and UN peacekeeping operations, as well as
naval capabilities in the Mediterranean. The GoC's primary
challenge, beyond the domestic fiscal challenge of securing
adequate defense budgets, was to develop and implement a
public relations strategy to ensure the public will support
joining NATO.


2. (C) Comment: Completion of the Strategic Defense Review
will signal a welcome change in the right direction for
Croatia,s defense policy, and was probably not an easy
achievement for this government, in view of Croatia,s
relatively recent need for a very active defense against a
neighboring state. Simunovic,s "act like an ally"
philosophy is heartening, as is his optimism (if not
misplaced) about maintaining defense budget levels. We note
that because the GoC has not signed an Article 98 agreement,
Croatia must prepare for NATO membership without IMET and
other assistance that new Allies found so helpful in the
process. END SUMMARY and COMMENT.

Ready for Membership when NATO is Ready
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3. (C) In Pol/Econ Counselor,s introductory call, the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs National Coordinator for NATO
Pjer Simunovic told us that major components of Croatia's
Strategic Defense Review would be completed by the end of

2004. This will drive a long-term defense development plan
based on the assumption that Croatia was a full member of
NATO. When challenged on whether all elements of the
military supported the transition away from territorial
defense, Simunovic stressed that the highest levels of the
GoC have made the political commitment to collective
security, and that Croatian armed forces were faithfully
developing the reform programs necessary to implement this
policy.


4. (C) The main challenge was in securing adequate resources
to support defense reforms in a tight fiscal environment.
However, Simunovic was confident that the Ministry of Finance
had become more "defense sensitive," and he was hopeful that
defense budgets would stay at about 1.8 percent of GDP.
Simunovic pointed out that this figure was based on Croatian
budget definitions, but the figure was just over two percent
using NATO definitions ) an ambiguity that he found helpful
in negotiations with the Ministry of Finance.


5. (C) Simunovic said that GoC strategic planning was founded
on the goal of being fully ready for an invitation by the end
of the current MAP cycle, i.e. the next 12-24 months.

Act Like a Member
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6. (SBU) According to Simunovic, the GoC hoped to use its
chairmanship of the Adriatic Charter (A3) to show it could
look and act like a NATO member. He said that the GoC was
planning to host an A3 Partnership Commission meeting at the
Foreign and Defense Ministerial level November 12-14 on the
island of Briuni. Ministers from Serbia and Montenegro and
Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as ministers from Turkey and
Italy would be invited to join in expanded talks on the
second day, following initial A3 discussions. Note: Post
understands that DAS Stephens provisionally accepted Foreign
Minister Zuzul's invitation to participate in the Briuni
meetings at the informal Foreign Ministerial August 6-8 in
Dubrovnik. End Note.

Niche Contributions to Afghanistan and Iraq


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7. (SBU) The GoC's Strategic Defense Review will state that
Croatia's defenses must be structured to meet the same
asymmetrical threats that its future NATO allies face --
terrorism and the security/humanitarian spillover from any
continued regional instability. Simunovic said that Croatia
would build niche defense capabilities to meet these threats
along the lines of its currently in place and planned
contributions to the ISAF mission. Croatia is now sending
its fourth rotation of fifty military police to Afghanistan
and finalizing its civilian contribution to the German PRT,
which will consist of 1-2 diplomats, 2-3 civilian police, and
a civilian medical team. With A3 partners Albania and
Macedonia, the GoC is also planning to send an 11 person
medical team to Kabul this fall.


8. (SBU) In addition to these contributions, Simunovic said
that Croatia would consider developing capabilities in
special forces and combat engineering. The GoC is also
finalizing concepts for civilian contributions to coalition
efforts in Iraq, including bringing Iraqi children to Croatia
for medical treatment (the first seven children arrived in
Zagreb August 26),providing forensic training for Iraqi
technicians, and contributing police trainers to the
Coalition Police Academy in Amman, Jordan. Simunovic added
that the GoC also wanted to explore how it could contribute
to maritime security beyond the Adriatic to the broader
Mediterranean region.

Public Support for NATO Membership
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8. (SBU) Simunovic noted that while broad support at the
political level for NATO membership was unquestioned, the
general public lacked knowledge about the advantages of
membership for Croatia. The new Annual National Plan will
lay out a more sophisticated approach and timetable for a
public relations campaign. Although polls generally show
public support for NATO membership hovering at the fifty
percent level, Simunovic was confident that the GoC was at a
good starting point. The GoC hoped to work with Slovenia to
absorb the lessons of its successful PR campaign in its own
strategy. Simunovic is organizing a workshop with the A3
partners on strategies and techniques to promote public
support for NATO membership. He asked if the USG could
provide a "public relations specialist" to participate in the
workshop, provisionally scheduled for early October. Post
will submit a more tailored request for a participant after
considering which skills and experience would be most
effective.
FRANK


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