LACKLUSTER OPPOSITION RALLY AND A

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000997

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM AM
SUBJECT: LACKLUSTER OPPOSITION RALLY AND A
TENTATIVE DIALOGUE WITH A FEW NEW DETENTIONS

REF: YEREVAN 975


1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified. Please treat
accordingly.

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SUMMARY
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2. (SBU) Following two days of meetings between the
opposition and the governing coalition, the
opposition's April 27 rally of about 5000
participants went off without incident but with 15
people taken to the police the next day (April 28),
questioned and subsequently released. Over the past
two weeks, authorities have arrested six opposition
supporters on criminal charges. Without being able
to provide precise numbers, the Human Rights
Ombudsman's office reports that the majority of
opposition supporters detained administratively have
been released. End Summary.

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BAGHDASARIAN MEETS WITH OPPOSITION
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3. (SBU) National Assembly Speaker Artur
Baghdasarian chaired meetings April 26 and 27
including members of all parliamentary factions as
well as opposition politician Victor Dalakyan and a
representative of the National Unity Party. During
the meetings Dalakyan reportedly presented the
following demands:

-- Release all detainees;
-- Stop political prosecutions;
-- Ensure the constitutional rights of citizens
(freedom of movement, assembly and speech);
-- Withdraw the current bill on rallies and
demonstrations from consideration at the NA;
-- Debate proposed referendum of confidence
legislation;
-- Provide access to live broadcast time to the
opposition on state television broadcasts;
-- Ensure that those who violated election law
during the 2003 elections are punished; and
-- Drop all legal cases against opposition
supporters.


4. (SBU) Although the opposition has announced
strong disappointment that the governing coalition
has not agreed to its demands wholesale, the
opposition has also announced that it will "give the
government one more week" (until May 4) to meet its
demands and seems to be willing to at least consider
participating in a political dialogue on some
issues. In a meeting with us April 28, one of the
opposition parliamentarians hinted that the
opposition might be looking for a face-saving way to
end their boycott of the National Assembly.

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LACKLUSTER RALLY, FEW NEW DETENTIONS
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5. (SBU) The opposition's April 27 rally at Opera
Square attracted roughly 5000 demonstrators, who
listened to three hours of speeches politely, then
dispersed. (Note: The opposition's sound system
once again failed to work consistently, making many
of the speeches difficult, if not impossible, to
follow. End Note.) We noted little enthusiasm in
the largely older, unemployed and male crowd, with
most participants carrying on extended and loud
conversations with the people standing near them
rather than paying attention to the speakers. We
spoke with various opposition party headquarters
April 28 and they reported 15 new detentions in
Yerevan following the April 27 rally (with all 15
released following questioning). Opposition leaders
report additional detentions of party activists
outside of Yerevan, for a total of 35.

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OMBUDSMAN ON DETENTION NUMBERS
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6. (SBU) According to Human Rights Ombudsman Larissa
Alaverdian and her staff, over the course of the
past several weeks roughly 200-300 people have been
administratively detained, with about 80 percent of
them held briefly and released (some protesters have
been fined the equivalent of USD 1 to USD 4). The
Ombudsman has no exact numbers of those in
administrative detention at the end of April 28, but
estimates that it could be no more than 50, and is
likely considerably fewer. Over the past two weeks,
authorities have arrested six opposition supporters
on criminal charges ranging from weapons charges to
charges of attempting to overthrow the government by
non-constitutional means.

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COMMENT: LOOKING FOR A WAY OUT?
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7. (SBU) In announcing its intention to give the
government a week to meet its demands the opposition
appears to be looking for a way to back off slightly
from its previous uncompromising positions. The
lack of wide-spread public support for the
opposition's as-yet-unformulated program for its
next steps undoubtedly played a role in the
opposition's decision to lower the rhetorical
temperature for the time being. The police's
decision to detain political activists yet again,
however briefly, following the April 27 rally is
disquieting, and a measure of how far apart the two
sides remain.
WALKER