APRIL 9 DEMONSTRATIONS PEACEFUL, EVEN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000860

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV AM
SUBJECT: APRIL 9 DEMONSTRATIONS PEACEFUL, EVEN
BORING

REFS: A) YEREVAN 809 B) YEREVAN 844


1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified. Please treat
accordingly.

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SUMMARY
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2. (SBU) Roughly ten thousand opposition
demonstrators rallied peacefully April 9 in Yerevan
on Opera Square. In a meeting plagued by technical
difficulties they called for Kocharian's
resignation, and announced they will be "occupying"
Opera Square until Kocharian leaves office. End
Summary.

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RETIREES, THE UNEMPLOYED, STUDENTS -- AND MALE
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3. (SBU) About 90 percent of the roughly ten
thousand opposition supporters who gathered in Opera
Square on a warm and sunny Friday afternoon were
male, mostly beyond retirement age (with a few
students as well, including one twenty-something
youth sporting a red Che Guevara sweatshirt with the
slogan "Hasta La Vista, Baby"). The crowd started
gathering about 3:30 for a scheduled 4:00 rally, and
stayed largely quiet while the organizers labored to
get their sound system working -- the speeches
started about 5:00. As the crowd lackadaisically
cheered an occasional comment from the podium, spit
sunflower seeds and bought ice cream from
enterprising vendors, a large security presence
(both uniformed police and plainclothes) kept a
close eye on proceedings and the crowd.

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NOT ENOUGH UNITY TO NAME A SINGLE SPOKESMAN...
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4. (SBU) While highlighting their recent decision to
work together toward Kocharian's ouster and posing
with arms linked and upraised, opposition leaders
each took an extended turn at the microphone. With
the Communists calling for a return to the Soviet
era, when "everything was better," and other
opposition leaders attacking everything from
Minister of Defense Serzh Sargsian's gambling to the
Yerevan Brandy Company privatization, the only thing
they all agreed on was calling for Kocharian's
resignation. Republic Party leader Aram Sargsian
announced (to a somewhat skeptical crowd) that
"negotiations are underway" and that President
Kocharian might be resigning "even before this
meeting is over."

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CALLING FOR A SIT-IN
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5. (SBU) People's Party of Armenia Chairman Stepan
Demirchian announced that the opposition had decided
not to march to the Presidential Palace because of
the heavy security presence there and because the
opposition didn't want to do anything that might
give the government "the excuse to create a
provocation." Instead of a march, rally organizers
called for all "strong men" to stay in Opera Square
until Kocharian resigns. After asking if there was
"anyone in the crowd who can sing or tell stories"
to come up to the microphone to entertain those
staging the sit-in the majority of the opposition
supporters were leaving the square. While we expect
that perhaps as many as several hundred supporters
may stay Friday night, we expect people will go home
for Easter at the latest. Rally organizers
announced an April 10 follow-on meeting at 6:00 to
"discuss further steps."

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RESTRAINT ON ALL SIDES
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6. (SBU) Security forces around the rally were
attentive, but even when following reporters through
the crowd they stayed at least 10-15 feet away, and
seemed to be under orders to avoid trouble. When,
for example, an older gentleman was absently
spinning an open pocketknife they moved closer, but
as soon as they realized he posed no threat they
moved away again without confronting him.

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COMMENT: NO "BUZZ" IN THE CROWD
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7. (SBU) Ten thousand people at a rally is more than
we've seen since the demonstrations following last
year's elections, but there was no real excitement
in the crowd. The end of the rally was clearly anti-
climactic, and organizers never built up the level
of emotional support that they had in 2003. We will
continue to watch the situation carefully, but for
now see little prospect for radical change (ref A).
ORDWAY