UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000757

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KHIV PREL SOCI EAID ECON AM
SUBJECT: SUNDAY SCUFFLE AT OPPOSITION RALLY: EARLY
START TO ARMENIA'S "HOT POLITICAL SPRING?"

REF: RFE/RL REPORT, 28 March 2004


1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified. Please treat
accordingly.

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SUMMARY
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2. (SBU) Heckling, a fistfight and the subsequent
arrest of four opposition supporters overshadowed the
start of a Justice Bloc-sponsored political rally in
the northern city of Gyumri on March 28 (ref). Police
eventually restored order and the rally and later
closed-door consultations between opposition and local
leaders finished without further incident. Last
Sunday's events, the most violent since the opposition
rallies during last year's Presidential campaign, have
sparked speculation that opposition rallies scheduled
for this April will reveal a contentious political
atmosphere and could lead to more unrest. Opposition
leaders and some political analysts are pointing to the
Gyumri incident as proof that forces loyal to President
Robert Kocharian are "running scared" and will resort
to shady tactics to discredit the opposition. End
Summary.

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HECKLING, VIOLENCE AND ARRESTS KICK OFF RALLY
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3. (U) An opposition rally in Armenia's second-largest
city, Gyumri, got off to a tumultuous start March 28
when pro-Government and pro-opposition demonstrators
exchanged punches, launched eggs and hurled insults,
ending in four arrests. A group of 10-15 women
(referred to in press reports as "known prostitutes"
and rumored to have been enlisted for the event) joined
the rally holding anti-opposition banners and clashed
with opposition supporters shortly after the start of
the event. According to reports from Embassy sources,
the violence began after hecklers threw eggs and set-
off firecrackers during People's Party President and
"Justice Bloc" leader Stepan Demirchian's opening
address. A group of unidentified men, two of whom were
allegedly plainclothes police officers, approached
Demirchian and engaged in a fistfight with his
bodyguards and others. Police arrested four opposition
supporters (including the driver of Justice Bloc leader
Albert Bazeyan) following the scuffle.

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DEMIRCHIAN: VIOLENCE A "CLEAR PROVOCATION"
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4. (SBU) Despite conflicting reports, Demirchian and a
handful of Justice Bloc representatives eventually did
complete their rally and met with local supporters in
closed-door consultations regarding future
demonstrations in Yerevan scheduled for sometime in
early April. Demirchian referred to the violence as a
"clear provocation" from the Kocharian. Later that
night, Demirchian made high-profile appeals to local
authorities to release the four men arrested during the
scuffle. (Note: Post has no information on the
detainees' treatment during their imprisonment or
updates regarding their release. End note.)

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POLICE: "UNABLE TO GUARANTEE PROTESTORS' SAFETY"
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5. (SBU) Organizers of the opposition rally claim that
local police stated in a letter before March 28 that
they were "unable to guarantee protestors' safety" in
the event of a rally. This rare police statement,
coupled with early press reports that multiple
plainclothes policemen may have taken part in the
heckling, have given rise to speculation of GOAM
involvement (local and/or national) in the anti-
opposition events on Sunday. In addition, sources tell
the Embassy that a suspicious "violet Mercedes-Benz"
was parked close to the rally from which GOAM
sympathizers distributed eggs and encouraged their
equities to "make it look like a real protest from both
sides."

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COMMENT
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6. (SBU) It remains unclear what, if any, role
government authorities played in the March 28
disturbances during the Gyumri opposition rally.
Political analysts close to the Embassy speculate that
the incident had its roots in local politics. They
tell us that local authorities may have staged the
events as a symbol of political repentance in order to
ingratiate themselves with the Kocharian
administration. The subsequent political fallout and
press frenzy, however, suggest that future rallies will
now serve as an important barometer of the opposition's
support and the Kocharian administration's propensity
for self-restraint. Whether the incident was a part of
local politics or a national power play, all eyes are
now focused on future opposition rallies in Yerevan and
what may be the "hot political spring" rumored to
dominate Armenian politics in the coming months.

WALKER