PUBLIC DEBATE MARKS FIRST YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001648

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, EUR/PGI, DRL,
DEPT PLEASE PASS USAID

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV AM
SUBJECT: PUBLIC DEBATE MARKS FIRST YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF
ARMENIA'S GOVERNING COALITION



1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect
accordingly.

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


2. (SBU) Both supporters and critics of the ruling
parliamentary coalition in Armenia's National Assembly took
advantage of its one-year anniversary to stage public
debates on its effectiveness and prospects for its future.
Coalition leaders from the Republican Party of Armenia,
"Orinats-Yerkir" (Country of Law) Party, and the Armenian
Revolutionary Forces ("ARF" or "Dashnaksutyun") made
relatively tame statements regarding the anniversary while
National Assembly Speaker Artur Baghdasaryan lunged at the
opportunity to showcase his contributions, the state of NA
relations with the Executive and legislative "successes" of
the past year. Critics were quick to respond to
Baghdasaryan's claims in both the press and during public
meetings with their evaluation of NA effectivenes, claiming
that the National Assembly's activities were at best only
moderately successful. With the opposition still boycotting
and rumors of continued delays in parliament, some analysts
claimed that the coalition's most significant feat over the
past year had been that of survival. End Summary.

-------------- --------------
BAGHDASARYAN POINTS TO BIG NUMBERS AS BIG SUCCESS
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) Taking advantage of the one-year anniversary of the
ruling coalition, Speaker Artur Baghdassaryan again leapt
into the public eye congratulating himself and governing
coalition MPs for what he characterized as a record year of
success in the NA. Baghdasaryan stated that the National
Assembly had been more productive than ever in terms of
initiatives and legislation passed during his first year as
Speaker and under the leadership of the governing coalition.
He pointed to discussion of Constitutional Reform, the
Electoral Code, and reforms involving the judiciary system
and self-governing bodies as headlines from this year's
deliberations. According to Baghdasaryan, the National
Assembly circulated 223 bills, adopted 178 laws and 418
decisions and ratified 78 treaties during the 2003-2004
session. (Note: Roughly half of the bills cited were
government initiatives. End Note.) Baghdasaryan took
advantage of anniversary events to note the prolonged
absence of the opposition MPs during their current boycott.
He portrayed them as petty, partisan, and uninvolved during
the Spring session. He stopped short of blaming them for
recent delays in the National Assembly and responded
defensively to suggestions that their absence was due in
part to his failure to coax them back into Parliament.

-------------- --------------
CRITICS: COALITION "PARTIALLY SUCCESSFUL AT BEST"
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) Critics of the coalition used the one-year
anniversary of the governing coalition to argue that the
coalition did not deliver on lofty promises made just one
year ago. Pointing to the Memorandum of Political Coalition
signed by the leaders of the coalition in June 2003,
journalists said the coalition stopped short of its stated
goals to move ahead on constitutional reforms, enact
legislation on the electoral system, refine economic policy
implementation and legislate strong anti-corruption
measures. Critics pointed to certain "failures" as a
discouraging sign for the prospects of this and any future
governing coalition in Armenia. They claimed that the
coalition responded only to requests by the President and
had turned the NA into a "ritualistic body" lacking
legislative creativity or depth. They portrayed the NA's
discussion of constitutional reform as merely a response to
the personal wish of the President. Critics were also
negative about the NA's work on electoral reform, saying any
outcome would most likely be limited to stipulating the
party rights of parliamentary majorities. Despite these
criticisms and claims that the NA was far too subject to the
President, journalists and analysts admitted that the
coalition did manage to stabilize relations with GOAM
ministries.

--------------
COMMENT: QUALITY, NOT QUANTITY
--------------


5. (SBU) The coalition's numbers at first seem impressive
when compared to previous sittings of the National Assembly.
Baghdasaryan's superficial inventory of legislative
achievements and skeptical private comments by MPs, however,
leave one to wonder how much Baghdasaryan or other coalition
members truly believe the anniversary fanfare. The fact
that the coalition has lasted a year admittedly came as a
surprise to many in Yerevan. Critics are correct in
asserting that at the very least the coalition managed to
not only survive but to thrive, with the most interesting
political wrangling in Armenia taking place within the
coalition rather than between the coalition and opposition.
ORDWAY