Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04YEREVAN1336
2004-06-14 11:22:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Yerevan
Cable title:  

FRACTURED OPPOSITION ADMITS FAILURE TO GARNER

Tags:  PGOV PREL AM 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001336 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL AM
SUBJECT: FRACTURED OPPOSITION ADMITS FAILURE TO GARNER
POPULAR SUPPORT


-------
SUMMARY
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001336

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ARMENIA'>AM
SUBJECT: FRACTURED OPPOSITION ADMITS FAILURE TO GARNER
POPULAR SUPPORT


--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) Faced with dismal rally attendance, ARMENIAn
opposition leaders made announcements June 5
acknowledging their failure to receive sufficient
popular support for "decisive actions" aimed at ousting
President Kocharian. Instead of launching a promised
"permanent" protest action, the June 4 opposition rally
in downtown Yerevan turned into a low-key event
attended by only one or two thousand people.
Opposition leaders subsequently announced they would
take a break to address "organizational issues."
Meanwhile, a number of NGOs and human rights groups
continued to conduct protest actions in front of the
Procurator General's office demanding the release of
all detainees. (There are currently 4 people in
detention, 3 of whom are already serving sentences on
criminal charges and one awaiting a court hearing).
End summary.

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OPPOSITION BACKS OFF FROM "DECISIVE ACTION" PROMISES
-------------- --------------


2. (U) Only one to two thousand people attended the
latest opposition rally held in downtown Yereavn on
June 4. More importantly, opposition leaders appeared
to abandon hopes of ousting President Kocharian by
admitting failure to build sufficient support. Most
analysts attribute the opposition's failure to a lack
of public confidence in its ability to bring about real
change in the political struggle. Disagreements
between opposition leaders have also undermined the
public's faith in the effectiveness of the opposition
movement. Republic Party leader Albert Bazeyan
publicly apologized to the crowd on June 5, saying, "We
believe that we are not yet ready to carry out actions
needed for achieving our final victory." Bazeyan added
that the opposition would need to "take some time off"
because it had failed to solve a number of internal
organizational issues.


3. (SBU) During the nearly three-hour rally, speeches
ranged from vague, flowery declamations to harsh
criticism of the government's anti-corruption strategy.
The most indefatigable speaker, National Unity leader
Artashes Geghamian, provided the crowd with a blow-by-
blow account of his battle with the Chairman of the New
Times Party, Aram Krapetian, who has sued Geghamian for
libel as the latest installment of internal conflicts
among opposition parties. Republic Party leader Aram
Sargsyan openly admitted that opposition leaders had
been overly optimistic in their recent statements to
crowds of opposition supporters in an effort to bolster
spirits and garner more support. Sargsyan said there
might be a smaller opposition protest on June 16 but
appeared tentative at best about prospects for the
gathering.

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NGOS PROTEST AGAINST POLITICALLY MOTIVATED DETENTIONS
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) A group of NGOs and human rights activists
continued to stage sporadic protest actions in front of
the Procurator General's office demanding the release
of the remaining handful of detained participants of
the opposition rallies. These groups have staged such
protests on-and-off since mid-April, following the
police crackdown and subsequent arrests of protesters
involved with opposition rallies in front of the
National Assembly. As of June 14, there were four
people in detention, including three people formally
under arrest on criminal charges and one person
awaiting a court hearing. Former Defense Minister
Vargharshak Harutyunian was detained and charged with
"publicly insulting" senior government officials. The
opposition has dismissed this charge as politically
motivated. (He was subsequently released from custody
on June 11). Citing official court statistics, the
head of the International Union of ARMENIAn Lawyers,
Tigran Ter-Yesayan, stated that since April 14, more
than 400 people have been subjected to administrative
detention and/or penalties for participating in
opposition rallies. Opposition party activists and
NGOs confirm, however, that there were no new
detentions following the latest rally on June 4.

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COMMENT
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5. (SBU) Having failed to win wide-spread public
support, the fractured opposition seems to be
retreating for the moment, and has started to hint that
they may be ready to end their boycott and return to
the National Assembly for the fall legislative season.
We believe that the current government can rest easy
unless and until the opposition manages to develop a
policy program that would win over the hearts of a
skeptical ARMENIAn public.
ORDWAY