DIALOGUE CONTINUES BETWEEN OPPOSITION AND

UNCLAS YEREVAN 001147 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN-ESIDEREAS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL AM SUBJECT: DIALOGUE CONTINUES BETWEEN OPPOSITION AND COALITION ¶1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified, protect accordingly. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Negotiations between Armenia's governing coalition and its political opponents have brought a temporary lull to their month-long political confrontation. Talks between leaders of the three pro- Kocharian parties that make up coalition government and the Justice bloc together with the National Unity Party (NUP) resumed on May 6 and will continue through May 14 at the National Assembly. Although thus far the has dialogue yielded no agreement to compromise, both sides are keen to demonstrate that they are heeding the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) recommendation urging the government and the opposition to embark on a "dialogue without precondition." The sides, nevertheless, agreed to upgrade the status of their ongoing "consultations" to "negotiations," and to finalize their agenda. Both the president and prime minister welcomed the resumption of negotiations and but noted they would not participate in the talks personally. End Summary. -------------- NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Talks between Armenia's governing coalition and leaders of the Justice bloc and NUP began on May 6 and continued throughout the week. Negotiations took place against the backdrop of a 10-day time-out imposed by the opposition on anti-Kocharian rallies in order to give government time to ease its crackdown on protest participants and opposition supporters. On May 12 the three political parties represented in the cabinet suggested negotiations to be held over four main issues including amendments to the constitution and electoral code, joint anti-corruption efforts and the implementation of the recent resolution on Armenia of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). ¶4. (SBU) The coalition also agreed to include the opposition's issue on "ways to overcome political crisis in Armenia resulting from 2003 elections" on the agenda if the word "crisis" were replaced by "situation." The official "negotiations" between the two sides began May 13 but were cut off almost immediately. Both sides remain keen to show that they are following the recommendations for Armenia made by PACE on April 28 that urges the government and opposition to embark on a "dialogue without preconditions." Both president Kocharian and Prime Minister Margarian endorsed a continuation of dialogue aimed at defusing political tension, but added that they would not participate personally in such talks. (Note: According to reliable press reports, however, Margarian met privately with opposition leader and former PM Aram Sargsyan early in the week. End Note.) -------------- COMMENT: STILL SOME WAY TO GO -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The opposition has already announced they would resume their rallies in Yerevan on May 14 (after a regional rally in Vanatzor fizzled earlier in the week with a turnout of no more than 200) and that they will continue to push for Kocharian's resignation regardless of the outcome of the talks, making it unlikely that the current dialogue will yield any immediate agreements. With the two rival camps posturing for the press and remaining divided on the opposition's key issue, Kocharian's legitimacy, we expect to see only modest movement on some of the other outstanding issues over the next several weeks. ORDWAY