ADAMKUS REPORTS INTERNATIONAL MEDIATION MISSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 001489 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/NB AND EUR/UMB E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2014 TAGS: PGOV PREL XH LH SUBJECT: ADAMKUS REPORTS INTERNATIONAL MEDIATION MISSION COMPLETE; NEXT STEPS UNCERTAIN REF: KIEV 4845 Classified By: AMBASSADOR STEPHEN MULL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Adamkus is satisfied with the outcome of the contentious international mediation session in Kiev December 6-7. He predicts that December 26 elections will occur on schedule, but admits that key uncertainties remain. A return of the international mediators to Kiev appears unlikely for now. End Summary. Another All Nighter -------------- ¶2. (C) President Adamkus called Ambassador December 7 to brief on that morning's latest international mediation sessions to broker an end to the Ukrainian political crisis. Adamkus said the meetings had been the most contentious yet, with angry recriminations, particularly from Kuchma, aimed at both Yushchenko and the international mediators over what he characterized as foreign intervention. He said that Kwasniewski, Solana and he had patiently pushed back, noting the importance of staging open, free and fair elections as planned on December 26; "We told him the eyes of the world are on Ukraine," said Adamkus, "you can't afford to destroy their hopes." ¶3. (C) The most significant achievements of the talks, said Adamkus, were: -- An agreement by Yanukovych to go on leave of absence through the December 26 elections, while a member of Parliament acceptable to all sides would assume Acting Prime Minister duties; -- Kuchma's agreement to dismiss the Central Election Committee and replace it with more politically unbiased officials; and -- A common agreement to consider Kuchma's proposed constitutional reforms "in a parallel track" with the election reforms, but without necessarily committing to passage of the constitutional measures before the December 26 elections. Despite rumors that Kuchma was pressuring Yanukovych to withdraw from the race, Adamkus said it was clear in their meetings that Yanukovych will certainly run in the December 26 elections. Personal Dynamics -------------- ¶4. (C) Adamkus said that Kuchma's clear motive in inviting the European mediators to return was to cultivate additional pressure on the Yushchenko camp. Adamkus found Yushchenko personable and tough, though occasionally too focused on unimportant details of the political dialogue with Kuchma. He said that Yulia Tymoshenko obviously exercised strong influence on Yushchenko during the mediators' private meeting with him and his staff. Russian Ambassador Chernomyrdin and Duma speaker Gryzlov kept a much lower profile in the round table meetings than had previously been the case, he said. Throughout the evening, Adamkus said Solana continued to seem disinclined to participate in the mediation effort, said Adamkus, implying that he was there only as a result of higher-level pressure from within the EU. Although the sessions had come close to breaking down at several times, he said, by 2:00 a.m. the group had concluded their sessions in a congenial mood (with the help of several glasses of cognac). Mission Complete? -------------- ¶5. (C) Adamkus said that by the end of the sessions on December 7, all sides had agreed that the international mediation process had done all it could and that future returns to Kiev appeared unlikely. While he expressed general satisfaction with mission, he agreed that several uncertainties remain in arranging the December 26 elections, and that he would be available to return to Kiev with the other international mediators to work those issues further if the parties desired it. Comment: Too Glossy? -------------- ¶6. (C) Adamkus's essentially positive spin on the latest mediation effort -- at odds with Embassy Kiev (reftel) and international media reporting that indicates a continued impasse -- undoubtedly reflects his wish to get credit for helping to move the process forward. We defer to our colleagues in Kiev for the definitive analysis. MULL