NETHERLANDS/EU: EXPECTATIONS FOR DEC 13 GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 003219 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2014 TAGS: NL PREL KNNP IR IS TU CR RO SU UP EUN SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/EU: EXPECTATIONS FOR DEC 13 GAERC REF: A. STATE 258831 ¶B. BRUSSELS 5186 Classified By: POLCOUNS Andrew Schofer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. Emboffs met with Jaap Werner, Director, Political Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on December 8 to deliver points reftel and December 9 with Joep Wijnands, the Deputy Director, and Derk Oldenburg (MFA Dep Dir for European Enlargement). Werner expected smooth sailing on Bulgaria, a troubled "yes" for Romania, a date for Croatia, and many open questions still on Turkey. Discussion of Ukraine is unpredictable given the swiftness of events. Other topics reftel are not expected to receive much discussion. Besides reftel topics, the GAERC will also discuss Iran, Sudan and the EU's action plan for Israel. End summary. EU ENLARGEMENT ¶2. (C) -- Bulgaria: Werner said that Bulgaria remains "on track" and does not seem to be affected by the discussions/strategizing over the other three. -- Romania: On Wednesday, Werner said that Romania's accession process has "become itchy and tricky" after election fraud reports (ref b). Some Member States are reconsidering their previous support, and "it could be ugly" in the Council. However, the EU's strong desire to keep Bulgaria and Romania together seems to have won out over Commission concerns over JHA and Competition (ref x). On Thursday, Oldenburg said that negotiations were "de facto completed late Wednesday, December 8 at the DepCOREPER level in Brussels." The GAERC will formalize the decision; the negotiations of the IGC will officially close the next day (December 14). He expected Council conclusions not to refer to specific problems in JHA or Competition. However, Romania will be under very strong Commission monitoring throughout ¶2005. Council decisions on their compliance will be subject to QMV, rather than consensus, meaning it will be easier to take negative decisions, such as pushing Romania's accession back from 2007 to 2008 (meaning a single champion of Romania could not block the delay). The issue of greatest concern, according to Oldenburg, remains the implementation of Romania's new competition legislation (already harmonized with the EU in large part),as well as passage of laws still pending as well as JHA corruption. The crux on the Competition side seems to be education of bureaucrats in local/regional competition authority offices throughout the country (around 40, he guessed) where workers do not understand the new laws or their obligations under it especially with regard to state subsidies. As added incentive to reform, Romania has been clearly told that if implementation failures remain after accession, then they would certainly face expensive, complicated court cases filed by the Commission to bring them into line, Oldenburg concluded. -- Croatia: "We know they are not doing all they can" to capture Gotovina, Werner admitted. The question remains "how high a price to demand from Croatia to get a date." The Dutch expect the Council to give a date in the end, although privately Werner acknowledged our point that doing so would remove much leverage over Croatia to comply with the ICTY. He also agreed that letting Croatia off the hook would weaken the multilateral process at the UN, which the EU otherwise champions at every turn. Heads of state at the December December 17 Council meeting will decide how strong to make the link between ICTY cooperation and accession negotiations. -- Turkey: The Heads of State and Government will discuss Turkey over dinner Thursday night, December 16, in Brussels, and the discussion is expected to continue into Friday, when Werner hoped it would conclude. The answer remains elusive for the question of how movement by Turkey to recognize Cyprus will be enough to clinch the deal, he said. (Note: Werner said the heads of state at the Council would discuss the candidate countries over dinner as well.) Ukraine -------------- ¶3. (C) The GAERC will discuss Ukraine, but the presidency is not attempting to script the discussion since events are moving so fast. It will be necessary to make a decision on the proposed Action Plan (part of the European Neighborhood Policy) regarding whether Ukraine should proceed along the same track as before given the upheaval there and recent developments in EU-Ukrainian relations. Ukraine will be discussed both at the GAERC and at the December 16 Foreign Ministers' preceeding the European Council summit. Depending on events, conclusions may be issued at the GAERC and/or at the summit. ¶4. (C) Werner said the Dutch believe things in the Ukraine have gone "as well as could be expected." Although the EU intervention is "not according to the book" given the prominent participation of Poland and Lithuania, it is working. Werner stressed that Polish president Kwasniewski is keeping his colleagues briefed on his conversations. Middle East -------------- ¶5. (U) The Dutch do not expect much beyond what has already been expressed by the EU (Solana's short-term plans, EU support for Palestinian elections, etc.) He did not rule out the possibility that Solana might submit some thoughts on additional medium-term plans to the Council to stimulate discussion. Colombia -------------- ¶6. (C) Werner did not respond to the specific points, including the call to disburse EU funds "more efficiently," saying only that US and EU objectives were generally the same, and noting that Colombia is not a discussion item for the GAERC. The conclusion has already been agreed by COREPER, but Werner said he had not yet read it. Great Lakes -------------- ¶7. (U) Werner agreed with reftel points made, but said the subject is not expected to be a major item for discussion at the GAERC. Other issues: Iran, Israel Action Plan, Sudan -------------- - ¶8. (C) Now that the "Paris deal" is finished, the EU must arrange to renew its negotiations with Iran on the Trade and Cooperation agreement and will want to reopen its dialogues on human rights and terrorism. Separately, the EU-3 are starting negotiations -- Werner thought as early as next week -- on a long-term nuclear agreement. A GAERC subject for discussion may be the advisability of a change in the modalities of the talks with Iran: some non-EU-3 member states are wondering how long the other 22 member states should continue to endorse EU-3 efforts without greater participation or transparency. ¶9. (C) Along with discussion of the Ukraine action plan in the European Neighborhood Policy (see above),the GAERC will address a problem with the Israel action plan: the Israelis want a "softer" clause on non-proliferation than the EU has had in its action plans already agreed with some Arab states (e.g., Tunisia, Morocco, Syria). If foreign ministers do not agree to a softer clause, negotiations with Israel will have to continue and Israel may fall out of the "package" of action plans. ¶10. (C) Sudan will come up for discussion, though Werner could not say to what end other than noting that the UN report on the situation is negative and that both sides seem to be violating ceasefire agreements. RUSSEL