NETHERLANDS/EU: DUTCH EXPECTATIONS FOR NOV 2 GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002777 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2014 TAGS: PREL NL EUN SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/EU: DUTCH EXPECTATIONS FOR NOV 2 GAERC AND NOV 5 EUROPEAN COUNCIL REF: A. THE HAGUE 2757 ¶B. STATE 228399 ¶C. STATE 230353 Classified By: POLCOUNS ANDREW SCHOFER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (U) Summary. MFA Deputy Directors Joep Wijnands (Political Affairs, European Correspondent) and Dirk Oldenburg (European Integration) briefed emboffs Oct 28th on expectations for the Nov 2 GAERC and the Nov 5 European Council. The GAERC will focus primarily on preparations for the Council, so the agendas will be similar. The Council will be briefed on the Wim Kok report to the European Commission on the status of the Lisbon agenda (Europe to be the most competitive economy by 2010) and have a discussion as preparation for the Lisbon agenda mid-term review at the Spring Council. The Dutch expect considerable time to be spent on the Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) multiannual program. On Iraq, police training and other support elements will be discussed. On Iran, the EU will consider UNSC referral if Iran does not suspend enrichment activities. On the Middle East, the Dutch saw Israel's Gaza withdrawal decision as accelerating the road map time line. Preparations for the Russia summit will also be on the agenda; the Dutch suggested these are becoming more difficult. The Council is expected to make decisions on support packages for Iraq and Sudan. End summary. Iraq -------------- ¶2. (C) The EU will offer Iraqi PM Allawi on November 5 a package of "concrete support measures," drawn up by the Commission on the basis of two exploratory missions. The package will be reviewed by the GAERC and approved by the Council. In a separate meeting, Wijnands told Poloff that the EU wants to "tell Iraq and the world" that the EU supports Iraq. In this regard, he expected that the EU will agree to train police and issue a declaration from the Council on developing EU-Iraqi relations, possibly including mention of a prospective trade agreement and other measures. ¶3. (C) Wijands (protect) said that the Dutch have prepared text for an EU agreement to offer training inside Iraq as well as outside the country. He noted that the French and Germans have circulated an alternate text, however, to provide training only in Jordan. Wijnands said that before the Iraqi elections the EU will send a team to Iraq to assess the security situation. If security is adequate, then he predicted that the EU would agree to some training in-country despite French and German reservations. Sudan -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The GAERC will review and the Council will approve an assistance package based on the African Union request for support of an expanded mission to Darfur. Ministers will not discuss sanctions (they have already been "prepared") but will consider additional measures to "keep up the pressure," e.g., supporting the UN proposal for a no-fly zone in Darfur. Iran -------------- ¶5. (C) There will be discussion of the state of play but no decisions at either the GAERC or the Council, according to Wijnands. Council decisions will continue to be driven by the discussions continue between the EU-3 and Iran. Depending on Iranian actions, Wijnands did not rule out a possible referral to the UNSC, although he stressed that even in that case the EU would try to convince Iran that "they are not slamming the door on continuing dialogue." Middle East -------------- ¶6. (C) Over dinner, Solana will present new long and short-term proposals for EU engagement in the Middle East, Wijnands said, disavowing knowledge of details. The EU realizes, he said, that the end game may come quicker than expected from the timeline in the road map. In the short term, the EU wants to find ways to support the Palestinians with security, civilian police, and local elections scheduled in December. Long term, he expects Solana to propose new ways (unknown at present) for the EU to engage once Israel has disengaged from Gaza. He noted that the Israeli decision this week had so far had no effect on the ground; actual implementation would be key. Lisbon agenda -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Oldenburg claimed the Dutch have not yet seen the final Kok report but understand it will have "serious conclusions" for the Council to consider. Kok will brief his report, and the Council will also be briefed on the Commission's impressions of the report. (According to Oldenburg, the points will be read by Prodi, substituting for Barroso.) Oldenburg said the Dutch have high hopes for a substantive and engaged discussion at the Council level; response thus far to Dutch preparations for the Council have been encouraging. Oldenburg cited German Chancellor Schroeder's planned introduction to the discussion as an example. JHA multiannual program -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The Dutch hope to be able to resolve outstanding problems on the JHA multiannual program left over from the JHA Ministerial Council last week. These are the rules for qualified majority voting, the time-line for reaching a unified EU rule on asylum, and the possible mention of a future European prosecutor in the plan. Oldenburg said that the latter point may be left out, but the others should be resolvable. Other -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Other topics at the GAERC will include Somalia, Guinea-Bissau, Belarus, African Great Lakes and preparation for the Russia summit. Of these, only the Russia summit is expected to generate any discussion at the Council. The others are on the agenda because individual member states asked to make a point. ¶10. (SBU) The Council had intended to discuss "communicating Europe" (specifically, selling the constitution treaty, but more broadly, trying to connect European with their Union) with the new Commission president Barroso. Since Prodi will attend instead, discussion on this topic will be minimal. This is the one area where the Dutch admit that the working of the Council is affected by the Barroso-European Parliament episode; in other statements, Dutch officials have made clear that they do not consider this a "presidency" issue. SOBEL