NETHERLANDS/EU/CHINA: EU "CAUTIOUS" ON LIFTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002605

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2014
TAGS: PREL PHUM MARR ETTC CH NL EU
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/EU/CHINA: EU "CAUTIOUS" ON LIFTING
CHINA ARMS EMBARGO


Classified By: AMBASSADOR CLIFFORD SOBEL FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: According to Dutch FM Bot, the EU is moving
"cautiously" with regard to the issue of lifting the China
arms embargo. Although there is no strong opposition to
lifting the embargo, several members feel more time is needed
before making that decision. Bot would prefer not to have
the embargo lifted during the Dutch presidency, but won't
break consensus. An internal Dutch report of the ministers'
meeting notes that supporters of a quick lift (France and
Spain) have so far failed to make their case. It is possible
that the EU-China summit currently scheduled for December 8
will be postponed, but the reasons are unclear. End Summary.


BOT: EU MOVING CAUTIOUSLY
--------------


2. (C) On October 12, Dutch Foreign Minister Bot provided
Ambassador Sobel with a brief readout of the EU Foreign
Ministers' lunch-time discussion of the China Arms Embargo
during the October 11 GAERC in Luxembourg. According to Bot,
"no one" in the EU doubts that the embargo will be lifted in
time; it is only a question of "when." When the issue was
raised at the lunch by French Minister-Delegate Cloudie
Haignere, Bot said, there were no strong statements of
opposition to lifting the embargo at some point in the
future, and he had to conclude that overall tendency toward
lifting the embargo was "positive." Bot reportedly also
concluded, however, that more work remained to be done to
strengthen the Code of Conduct and the "Toolbox" before the
EU would be prepared to lift the embargo.


3. (C) Bot confirmed that while the French and Spanish pushed
to lift the embargo by the EU-China summit, others --
including Denmark, Sweden, Poland, Czech Republic, Italy, and
the UK -- preferred to take a more cautious, go-slow
approach. Bot reiterated that "if I had my way, it would not
happen," but stressed that the Netherlands would not stand
alone as president to break a consensus to lift. Bot made
clear that he and British FM Straw are coordinating closely
on how to handle the issue, although he told Ambassador Sobel
that he worried that Straw's opposition to lifting the
embargo may be "shifting." (Note: British Ambassador Colin
Budd separately told Ambassador Sobel that Straw's position
on the embargo has not changed, citing his statements at the
December 2003 European Council meeting. Budd also reported
that at the GAERC, some of the strongest arguments for going
slowly were made by German Foreign Minister Fischer, who
argued that the "prestige of our main ally (the U.S.)" should
be seriously considered, and Commissioner Chris Patten, who
suggested that the EU needed to "pause for thought" before
moving forward.)


3. (C) With regard to human rights, Bot suggested that the EU
had decided to downplay in public the connection between the
embargo and the human rights situation in China. In private,
however, the EU has suggested several specific steps the
Chinese should take on the human rights front (freeing the
remaining Tiananmen prisoners, for example). According to
Karel Hartogh, FM Bot's private secretary, Bot made clear
during the EU-Chinese ministerial in Hanoi that if China
needed "more time" to deal with human rights concerns, then
it should understand if the EU needed "more time" to feel
comfortable lifting the embargo.

DUTCH BELIEVE MORE WORK TO BE DONE
--------------


4. (C) In a separate discussion with poloff, Paul van den
IJssel (Director for Arms Transfers in the MFA's Security
Department),shared elements of the internal Dutch report on
the meeting. According to van den IJssel, the Dutch
concluded: 1) a "clear majority" needs more time before
making a decision to lift; 2) more work remains to be done on
the Code of Conduct and "Toolbox," 3) there is still a need
for positive steps on human rights from the Chinese, and 4)
the supporters of a quick lift have not yet succeeded.

SUMMIT POSTPONED?
--------------


5. (C) Herman Schaper, Dutch Deputy POLDIR, and Hartogh
separately told us that the Chinese Ambassador to the
Netherlands recently asked the MFA to consider alternative
dates for the EU-China summit currently scheduled for
December 8. While the Dutch have pushed back hard to hold
the summit on December 8 as planned, they are quietly looking
at other dates, including as late as December 21 (after the
December 17 EU Council meeting). While no explicit link had
been made to the arms embargo by the Chinese side, some in
the MFA saw the request as a possible veiled threat.
(Schaper told DCM on October 12 that while a majority of EU
members agree that the embargo decision should not be linked
directly to the summit, a majority also appear sympathetic to
the idea of using the summit to "hint" that a decision is not
far off.) Hartogh, however, suggested that Beijing may want
to avoid holding the summit too close to elections to the
Taiwanese legislative Yuan (currently scheduled for December
11). Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Zhang Yesui is
scheduled to visit The Hague on October 14 and presumably
will discuss preparations for the summit.
SOBEL