TURKEY/EU/CYPRUS - "THEY AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' YET"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002452 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2014 TAGS: PREL TU NL CY SUBJECT: TURKEY/EU/CYPRUS - "THEY AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' YET" Classified By: Andrew Schofer, Political Counselor, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Hannie Pollman-Zall (protect),MFA Director of the Western and Central European Department, told Poloff on September 23 that if the Turks thought the European reaction to the adultery law proposal was bad, "they ain't seen nothin' yet." Ankara, she suggested, may still not fully appreciate to what extent the EU will intrude into internal Turkish affairs in the course of accession negotiations. Helping the Turks understand this reality is an area where the U.S. could play a helpful role. On Cyprus, Pollman-Zall suggested the Cypriot actions are driven more by a desire to revise the Annan plan than by an interest in keeping Turkey out of the EU. End Summary. TURKEY MIGHT HEAR NO FIRST, THEN YES ¶2. (C) Speaking with Poloff on September 23, Hannie Pollman-Zall noted that the many Turks still do not appreciate how intrusive the EU will become in EU affairs if and when accession negotiations begin. If the Turks thought the recent flap over the proposed adultery law was bad, she added, "they ain't seen nothing yet." (Note: Pollman-Zall was speaking just as the positive news from Erdogan's meetings in Brussels was breaking. End note.) "If the Turks think the EU has been meddling in their internal affairs", she said, then "they don't understand EU reality. Just wait until they see what it means to be in the EU full time." ¶3. (C) With regard to the question of starting accession negotiations, Pollman-Zall predicted internal EU discussions would remain inconclusive up until, and possibly beyond, the December 17 Council meeting. If the Council is unable to reach a decision, she said, then it is quite possible that a second Council meeting would need to be called to resolve the issue. Even in December, and even with a positive Commission report in October, countries like France, Austria, or Cyprus may still be arguing "No". While Cyprus would "not dare to stand alone," she said, it would be "willing to sidle up to group of like minded doubters." Eventually, however, Cyprus would buckle under pressure if momentum for a positive decision was strong enough. Pollman-Zall recalled that she had seen EU Heads of State "back colleagues into a corner physically to press them to join a consensus" in the past, and predicted that, at the end of the day, the Council would give Turkey a grudging "yes" on starting negotiations. Pollman-Zall denied having seen an actual draft of Commissioner Verheugen's report, but admitted that she was following its development closely and providing regular input. ¶4. (C) When asked how the U.S. might play a useful role guiding Turkey so it is easier for the EU to make the right decision, Pollman-Zall offered two suggestions: a) The U.S. could send a message to Turkey to "stop being so childish about recognizing Cyprus." Turkey has got to realize that the EU, institutionally, cannot exclude Cyprus from EU meetings, she said. Turkey has to find an elegant way to recognize the Government of Cyprus. This would necessarily involve recognizing the whole island, she admitted, which puts Turkey in the corner regarding the Turkish part. Clearly Turkey "needs good lawyers to find a way to do this without de facto un-recognizing Turkish Cyprus," she said, adding, "doesn't the US have good lawyers who could help the good Turkish lawyers find a way to say this?" b) The U.S. could help Turkey understand that if it hopes to join the EU, then it has no choice but to accommodate to EU rules. Even if Turkey is a big country with a long history, she said, Turkey has to accept that the EU has rules that must be followed. "Shouting about internal affairs is not compatible with EU membership," she said. CYPRUS ¶5. (C) Cyprus, according to Pollman-Zall, is blocking the EU's trade/aid package primarily to leverage concessions on revisions to the Annan plan for governance of the island, rather than to influence the EU's decision on Turkey. As of September 23 (in a fast moving negotiation) the Dutch believe neither the Greek Cypriots nor Turkish Cypriots want a deal on the package after earlier indications that the Turkish side was going along. Pollman-Zall thought the discussions could move into the Luxembourg or British Presidencies. ¶6. (C) Pollman-Zall observed that the negotiations over Cyprus aid/trade have become very complicated and "could change again with one phone call in an hour." The Dutch still want to link trade and aid packages as a strategy, but the Turkish Cypriots seem now to be rejecting the aid package because they read the current draft as excluding all Turkish Cypriots from any benefits, she said. (Note: Pollman-Zall said that the text was originally written to intentionally exclude Turkish Anatolian settlers in Cyprus from benefits, so as to discourage further economic immigration from Anatolia by those seeking to capitalize on a 300 million euro EU aid program. The text, however, literally refers to "legally established nationals," which could mean all Turkish Cypriots, native and immigrant. This is impossible for the Turkish Cypriots to accept, according to Pollman-Zall. End Note.) ¶7. (C) In closing, Pollman-Zall asked for an update on the status of the USG Cyprus aid package. She mentioned: a) the $30 million for Small and Medium Enterprises (SME); b) the airport in the North; c) phytosanitary issues. SOBEL